Ukraine's Kursk Offensive: The lessons and risks of Ukraine's push into Russia

For the majority of 2024, Russia has held the overall battlefield initiative in Ukraine. That period has seen slow, continuous advances as the Russian military slowly ground its way forward. Throughout that process, Moscow has known it enjoys a degree of sanctuary on its own territory, effectively shielded from advanced long-range Western weapons or serious ground incursions.

On August 6th, that sanctuary was directly challenged when a force of Ukrainian Brigades breached the Russian border in the Kursk region and, in the days that followed, overran an area comparable in size to months worth of Russian gains and at a fraction of the price.

Today, we talk about this sudden Ukrainian offensive, how it started, what it may show about the nature of warfare in Ukraine and, as the eyes of the world are on Kursk, what may happen next.

The real lessons have been learned by China. The Chinese now know that Russia’s conventional forces are paper tigers.

My first thought is why would we care if China annexed Eastern Russia. All of the raw material available in Sakha has not made Russia a wealthy nation. Why not let Russia and China fight it out of the territory.

A little bit of research on Eastern Russia below. I am surprised there even 24 million people there.

There are two federal districts in he eastern part of Russia encompassing about 1/2 of the country. The population is 24,768,461 or about 17.24% of the total population of Russia,

The Far Eastern Federal District
Altai Republic 210,924
Altai Krai 2,163,693
Irkutsk Oblast 2,370,102
Kemerovo Oblast 2,600,923
Krasnoyarsk Krai 2,856,971
Novosibirsk Oblast 2,797,176
Omsk Oblast 1,858,798
Tomsk Oblast 1,062,666
Tuva Republic 336,651
Republic of Khakassia 534,795
Total 16,792,699

Siberian Federal District
Amur Oblast 766,912
Republic of Buryatia 978,588
Jewish Autonomous Oblast
Zabaykalsky Krai 1,004,125
Kamchatka Krai 291,705
Magadan Oblast 136,085
Primorsky Krai 1,845,165
Sakha Republic* 995,686
Sakhalin Oblast 466,609
Khabarovsk Krai 1,292,944
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug 47,490
Total 7,975,762
Total 16,792,699
Total of both 24,768,461

Sakha is 3,083,523 km2 (1,190,555 sq mi), so less than 1 person per square mile (granted a lot of it is in or near the Artic Circle). Sakha is well endowed with raw materials. The soil contains large reserves of oil, gas, coal, diamonds, gold, silver, tin, tungsten and many others. Sakha produces 99% of all Russian diamonds and over 25% of the diamonds mined in the world.

It is interesting to see how these threads age. Especially the pro-Pooty poopers’ continually arrogant posts, although sometimes the more ardent Ukie supporters end up looking foolish too...

In THIS case, it appears Ukraine may be attempting to cut off enough Russian troops to give Pooty a serious headache. Whether the Ukies can pull it off, we shall see, and whether they can hold it is even more difficult. But... given the weak support of the West so far, overall (not just this offensive), the Ukies are doing better than I expected. I’d have expected the war to become mostly an almost Afghanistan style (allowing for the terrain differences) guerilla war by now, to be honest.

This entire war has been a combination of show and pawn moves.

Should have never been a war to begin with - this all began under Obama’s feckless and incompetent “leadership” - he turned a blind eye to the Russian encroachment leading up to the 2014 invasion (despite his CIA helping to promote the Maidan Revolution of that year). In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised of the revolution was, in part, meant to encourage Putin to invade... (of course, this is bigger/deeper than Obama could dream up).

Then notice, no additional significant battles... until Pedo-Dementia Joe, then we have wars breaking out all over... again. And if we look at the run up to Putin’s latest invasion, we see again - activities and statements by Biden trying to actively promote Russian invasion... and bingo...

Now we have been at this over two years - with Biden and the West, having seeded and fostered this war, stringing their pawns the Ukrainians along - with just enough weapons to keep the war going, trying their hands even on how they use said weapons - guaranteeing a protracted conflict. In all honesty - For the $$$ spent and the weapons sent - had it been done in a more organized and way, would have seen and end to the war and Russia pushed back at least to the pre-2022 territory.

And all to what end? This isn’t about weakening Putin - or this would have played out much differently. But what I do know - there are folks and companies that have made major bank - and stand to make $trillions more when this is all said and done. All these weapons we are “giving” Ukraine - our old stock, will be replaced with higher-cost, newer models. And how many US Congressmen and Senators are seeing their investments in corporations with defense contracts see their personal wealth explode (both sides of the aisle)?

Honestly, I too figured this would have devolved into skirmishes/guerrilla-type warfare. But apparently there is more $$$ to be made - I am impressed with the efforts of the Ukrainian military.

oh - and another side benefit - there has been more real corruption uncovered and “dealt with” in the last 2 years in Ukraine than in the previous decade. And while there is still plenty... it is progress.

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