Ukraine Defies the Doomsayers

National Review ^ | 8/15/2024 | JIM GERAGHTY

[marcusmaximus]

-snip-

After my first trip to Ukraine, a few readers wrote in or left comments urging me to check out the assessments of retired colonel Douglas Macgregor, contending he had the real scoop. I wasn’t familiar with Macgregor, but a bit of digging illuminated the retired colonel’s very consistent assessment of how the war is going:

March 4, 2022: “The first five days Russian forces I think frankly were too gentle. They’ve now corrected that. So, I would say, another ten days, this should be completely over.”

March 15, 2022: “The Ukrainians are being crushed. Even the Washington Post and the New York Times are now finally beginning to print the truth. Their casualties are horrific. We’ve effectively seen the Russians destroy three separate armies built by the Ukrainians. And everyone is starting to wonder what’s really happening. The truth is coming out that this war was not started by Russia.”

March 17, 2022: “The war is really over for the Ukrainians. They have been grounded to bits. There’s no question about that, despite what we report on our mainstream media.”

April 21, 2022: The current fighting represents the “final annihilation of what remains of Ukraine’s best forces. . . . The Russians have never been interested in crossing the Dnieper River. They were always interested in destroying the Ukrainian forces — that job’s about through.”

July 7, 2022: “It’s [Ukraine] already effectively a failed state, it could be erased completely from the map. . . . The Russians are holding most of the cards at this point.”

July 8, 2022: “The war, with the exception of Kharkiv and Odessa, as far as the Russians are concerned is largely over.”

[Red6]

It is mostly over.

The Ukraine is not in the position to amass a larger force that could conduct any sort of counter offensive in the areas they lost in the East and South, since as they concentrate they will be detected and targeted.

So, they went after a softer area with a smaller force where they can put on a big show for a short time.

What this idiot tries to sell as success, is desperation.

Within days, Ukraine will be ejected (Ukrainian casualties and material losses not reported on, of course), but they will continue to lose ground in the East / South, little by little, village by village, and that isn’t a show nor temporary.

[Widget Jr]

The last two paragraphs spell out Macgregors words and actions for the last two years:

"Macgregor’s eternal vision of Ukraine is that it is a country that is always teetering on the brink of a catastrophic, intractable defeat, but somehow never manages to get there..."

"Macgregor doesn't have a particular insight into what's happening on Ukrainian battlefields. No, the reason people listen to him is because he tells a particular audience what they want to hear."

Macgregor was a capable officer. When the army passed him over for promotion to General he never got over it. Starting before he retired, he became part of the cottage industry of former officers who make their living criticizing the US military, domestic and foreign policies, while treating those of governments hostile to the West as superior.

Ukraine holding its own is a repudiation of the pro-Russia anti-west narratives that Scott Ritter, and Macgregor and others put out. The difference between trolls like Scott Ritter and Macgregor is Ritter doesn't take Ukraine's refusal to lose and occasional wins personally. He just changes his lead ins and intros to the same story he's been selling since the war started. He does not really care about Russia and Ukraine.

Macgregor treats Ukraine holding its own as a direct and personal insult. Ukraine's continued existence is making a liar out of him every time he opens his mouth. Instead of easing off, he keeps doubling down. The more he talks, the more it becomes obvious why the Army gave him a sideways promotion to retirement instead of moving him up to General officer.

[rxh4n1]

What’s this “we” Frenchy?

[gleeaikin]

If there must be war, then this is a good way to decommission our aging materiel. We don’t have to process and neutralize chemicals, and also don’t have to rent storage to keep holding it. Ukraine has made good use of our old cluster munitions by opening the shells, and repackaging the many little clusters inside for use by drones against troops in the meat waves, for example.