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While I know Lichtman is a Democrat, I don’t think he sees his keys quite the same way. He is still saying Biden will win, if he stays in. I believe he has made the point that if Biden drops out, he must drop all the way out, making Harris the President so she has the ‘incumbency’ key.

Here are Allan Lichtman's conclusions versus mine:

Party Mandate: False - The incumbent party did not gain seats in the midterm elections.
Contest: True - There is no serious contest for Biden's nomination.
Incumbency: True - Biden is the sitting president.
Third Party: True - No significant third-party candidate is expected. [False - Significant third-party candidates are polling around 5-10%, which can influence the election outcome.]
Short-term Economy: True - Economic indicators favor the incumbent. [False - Inflation and other economic challenges are significant concerns.]
Long-term Economy: True - Economic performance over the term is strong. [False - espite some growth, issues like inflation and strategic reserve depletion indicate instability.]
Policy Change: True - Major policy changes have been enacted.
Social Unrest: True - There is no significant social unrest affecting the incumbent. [False - There are widespread and sustained protests, including pro-Palestinian and anti-Semitic incidents.]
Scandal: True - The administration is free from major scandals. [False - Multiple controversies, including those involving Hunter Biden and administration officials.]
Foreign/Military Failure: False - There have been significant foreign or military failures.
Foreign/Military Success: False - There is no significant foreign or military success.
Incumbent Charisma: False - Biden is not considered a charismatic leader.
Challenger Charisma: True - The challenging candidate (Trump) is not deemed charismatic or a national hero.