[Reno89519]

Here are Allan Lichtman's conclusions versus mine:

1. Party Mandate: False - The incumbent party did not gain seats in the midterm elections.
2. Contest: True - There is no serious contest for Biden's nomination.
3. Incumbency: True - Biden is the sitting president.
4. Third Party: True - No significant third-party candidate is expected. [False - Significant third-party candidates are polling around 5-10%, which can influence the election outcome.]
5. Short-term Economy: True - Economic indicators favor the incumbent. [False - Inflation and other economic challenges are significant concerns.]
6. Long-term Economy: True - Economic performance over the term is strong. [False - espite some growth, issues like inflation and strategic reserve depletion indicate instability.]
7. Policy Change: True - Major policy changes have been enacted.
8. Social Unrest: True - There is no significant social unrest affecting the incumbent. [False - There are widespread and sustained protests, including pro-Palestinian and anti-Semitic incidents.]
9. Scandal: True - The administration is free from major scandals. [False - Multiple controversies, including those involving Hunter Biden and administration officials.]
10. Foreign/Military Failure: False - There have been significant foreign or military failures.
11. Foreign/Military Success: False - There is no significant foreign or military success.
12. Incumbent Charisma: False - Biden is not considered a charismatic leader.
13. Challenger Charisma: True - The challenging candidate (Trump) is not deemed charismatic or a national hero.

[Big E]

Huh. Interesting. It’s really pretty subjective. For example, if there’s a cease-fire agreement in the Ukraine or Israel before the election, is that a success? If there’s not, is that a failure?

And if they drop Harris in as the President, does she really enjoy any sort of advantage as the ‘incumbent’, which no one voted for? Gerald Ford didn’t seem to have any advantage. Well, however these keys get filled out, I hope when I come home at 9pm on the first Tuesday in November, they’ll be admitting that Donald Trump has been re-elected.