Posted on 06/30/2024 3:59:01 PM PDT by scouter
The Democrats who are actually running the country (Obama's crew?) will use carrots and sticks to get Biden to withdraw. Carrots would be a pardon for Hunter, dropping all further charges against him, an "honorable" departure, a pleasant retirement, and silence on his family's corruption. Sticks would be the opposite. Kamala would be his replacement for several reasons. First, she will be easy to control. Second, bypassing her would disaffect all their major constituencies. Third, she would have access to all the money Biden has raised. Anyone else would have to start raising funds from scratch. Fourth, they need her to be on board with the plan.
If Jill refuses to play ball, they will make life very difficult for her. For about a week, maybe two. They'll let it be known to all WH staff that Joe is gone and Jill just needs to receive the message and they are to ignore any instructions she gives, and that if they don't play along, their careers will be over. If that doesn't work then they'll invoke the 25th Amendment, and Kamala will become Acting President, giving her some degree of gravitas and tapping into the honeymoon phase voters usually grant to someone who is "forced" to take over in "emergency" situations.
Another option would be if Joe-Jill agrees to resign. If Joe-Jill gets on board they can frame it as passing the torch on to the next generation, with Kamala having gained the necessary experience over the last 3 1/2 years. If Joe-Jill decides to bow out now, and resign, he can give a Reaganesque goodbye speech, resign for the good of the country, and Kamala can have several months of actually being president, instead of just Acting President, before the election and before her own term begins. Joe-Jill will go down in history as preparing the country for the first woman president, and actually making it happen. Barack will gin up all the enthusiasm they’ll need to get her elected, and he'll still be in control. If Joe-Jill agrees to this, it has the added benefit of not putting her in the position of having betrayed Joe-Jill.
They recognize that this is risky, but I think they may do it because they think it is the only hand they have to play. If so, all of this will happen before the convention so they can have the excitement and celebration kick-off of the new campaign at the convention.
I see the 25th as a convoluted and messy option. Not good for Dems, Repubs and the country.
To make it even more interesting, cabinet members serve at the pleasure of the president. He can fire them at any time.
So if a president gets a hint that a 25A action might be on the way, he could immediately fire the all cabinet members whom he perceives to be disloyal. Then what?
I suppose the only remedy then would be impeachment.
Impeachment and removal only requires a simple majority in the House and a two-thirds vote in the Senate.
It’s EASIER to remove a President through impeachment and conviction than through some kind of bizarre 25th Amendment process.
In addition—though the OP does not want to talk about it—the 25th amendment had a hidden assumption of at least minimal competence and organizational skills of the VP since as a practical matter they would be driving the entire process.
On the contrary, Section 4 was designed precisely for that purpose. In fact, it is purposefully ambiguous by not specifying any medical, legal, or even political criteria for determining he is unable to discharge his powers and duties.
You’re absolutely right. That’s one of its deficiencies. Or is it? Is that a bug or a feature?
Except that impeachment is supposed to involve “high crimes and misdemeanors “, not simple incapacitation or mental decline.
> It’s EASIER to remove a President through impeachment and conviction than through some kind of bizarre 25th Amendment process. <
Yes. Odd, huh?
But the 25A does have one advantage. It can *temporarily* remove a president rather quickly. If the VP and a majority of the cabinet agree, the president is out and the VP is the acting president. Congress isn’t even involved.
But if the ousted president then objects, Congress does get involved. And it becomes a real mess. Sometimes I think the 25A was not thought through very well.
After formal notification, Congress has 21 days to vote to remove the president from office (two-thirds majority required in both House and Senate).
Read it again carefully. He still remains President, but may not discharge the powers and duties. Acting President is not President. Many Vice Presidents have already served as Acting President for short periods of time, able to discharge the powers and duties of the Presidency, but they were not actually President. Even Kamala Harris has done this when Biden was under anesthesia. She is the first woman to have done so, but she is not the first woman President. Even the text of the Amendment continues to refer to the Vice President as Vice President, and the President as President.
Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.
No, that's not true. Read it. It only requires two-thirds vote in both Houses of Congress if the President contests it, AND the Vice President and the Cabinet send another letter within 4 days to Congress saying "no, really, he can't do the job."
So that would mean it could be used between 4pm and 10 am
It really only makes sense in case where the President had a stroke and literally could not function at all.
If Mike Johnson doesn’t at least superficially pursue the 25th, he could be justifiably accused of abdication.
I don’t believe it’ll come down to the 25th being invoked, in a few weeks it will be announced that Joe has died, in bed with Jill, and the last words his broken-hearted wife heard were, “It’s Trump’s fault”.
Virtually impossible for a political tactic...absent stroke or heart attack a lot of Ds would not vote to remove a Prez of their party.
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