The Enforcer, the only one reporting on this. So forgive me if believe the destroyed most likely falls short of being the truth. Damaged perhaps, but even that is suspect.
When this war ends, Ukraine will not be in NATO and will have lost any chance they had to be in the EU which was in reach before the war.
Ukraine will have lost 16-18% of their landmass and population.
Ukraine will have lost much of their industry and a deep water port city which was also the hub of their steel industry.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Ukraine_economy.jpg Much of the key national industry for Ukraine is in areas the Russians already control.
They will have suffered nearly as many casualties as Russia, but with less than 1/3 the population (why the Russian mobilization is a limited/partial but Ukraine is scratching the bottom to get warm bodies still pumping blood). BTW, if you want to watch some sad, but often funny videos, try to look up some of the Ukrainian mobilization video’s where their TCC is force recruiting young men off the streets.
Based off the leaked documents which are what our government and military really think is ground truth (not imaginary inflated numbers only for one side), the true casualty ratio (before Ukraine’s casualty intense counter offensive) was about 1.52 (Russians):1 (Ukrainian) at worst and 1.7 (Russians):1 (Ukrainian) at best. If anything, with the Russians adapting to some of the technology we introduced, reorganizing, and the Ukrainian failed counter offensive, that number has narrowed since then.
It is Ukraine that has a damaged infrastructure, ~40% of the power production is lost (that’s with them trying to repair it), many key railroads, key bridges, roads etc. are damaged or destroyed. Power rationing is a reality in Ukraine even with them feeding off of the rest or Europe: https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shutdowns-may-20/
Ukraine will be massively indebted without the ability to pay this back (mostly to the US BTW). Their currency is worthless (the Ruble is fine BTW), their GDP shrunk by more than 37% (that’s worse than the Great Depression - the only reason why they can pay for their public servants is because the US and EU is infusing money into them).
Their demographics is off the charts bad. People are fleeing Ukraine in mass, casualties, war cripples will pose a generational cost, and a horrible birth rate that is among the worst on the planet. A nation with over 41 million people has less than 28 million living there.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/4187653/18057933/temporary-protection-ukraine-citizens-map-november-2023.png/dee6bcd6-a19e-ac4f-d153-9c94af7c87bf?t=1705050418447 Many of these people will never return.
But... with make belief casualty reports, stories about Western wonder weapons, and heroic stories which we latch onto like the Ghost of Kiev or battle for Snake Island, we’ll carve out some imaginary idea that we’re actually doing alright. Maybe, in the near future, a big Hollywood movie can somehow show how we won this war, even though we lost (we failed, the Russians succeeded, in achieving their political and military objectives).
It’s already a lost cause. The Ukrainian counter offensive of 2023 was the last realistic chance there was for Ukraine. I had hoped that after the counter offensive comes to an end, and before the US election politics of 2024 come into full swing, we would begin negotiating an end to this insanity in earnest. That didn’t happen, since this issue isn’t really causing any political damage to the Democrats and Biden administration.
Unless you believe Ukraine has a huge unknown supply of soldiers hidden away somewhere and the West is willing to arm and fund Ukraine at 2022 levels indefinitely, Ukraine is cooked. They will simply see their nation blown to pieces, lose more people, and lose more ground over time.
There simply is no political way out for us and Europe at this point. Credibility and reputations of major security alliances, and the careers of politicians are at stake.
The only question is how bad the failure will be and if we cause this to spiral out of control. As we fail, there will be the desire to escalate the war (expand its scope) in hope that this can change things.
If we keep the fight going, Ukraine will simply lose more of its territory and key cities, likely Kharkiv late this year and eventually Odessa next year, if we keep things going long enough (a guess). Ukraine’s infrastructure will be damaged more, they will lose more people... with no benefit to their side by continuing the war.
The Russians will simply keep the pressure on in order to force a deal at some point and to avoid any sort of Ukrainian counter offensive (force Ukraine to commit forces they would need for a counter offensive). Keeping the pressure on also means a favorable position in any sort of upcoming negotiations. But what that means is that Ukraine is being bled out and losing more ground, slowly but surely, and with zero hope of winning. There are folks in the FR that think sustaining this situation is somehow pro-Ukraine.
