The 12 New Countries That Might Exist Soon

Transcript
0:00 · as history continues evolving with Time
0:01 · new and old countries come in and out of
0:03 · existence pretty much all the time
0:05 · dozens of new UN recognized countries
0:07 · have come into existence in only the
0:08 · past 30 plus years since the Cold War
0:10 · Began coming to a close back in 1990 and
0:12 · as a result the world map has officially
0:14 · changed dozens of times in many of our
0:16 · lifetimes East Germany faded out of
0:18 · existence in 1990 when it was legally
0:20 · absorbed by West Germany between 1990
0:22 · and 1991 the collapse of the Soviet
0:25 · Union led to the birth of 15 newly
0:27 · recognized independent states and
0:29 · arguably 16th in the form of chia which
0:32 · is a really interesting case study in
0:33 · how countries can be born and die Chia
0:36 · an ethnically and religiously distinct
0:38 · territory of Russia unilaterally
0:39 · declared its independence from the
0:41 · Soviet Union and Russia in 1991 and
0:43 · remained a deao independent state for
0:45 · nearly a decade until it was forcefully
0:47 · res subjugated by the Russian armed
0:49 · forces in 2000 during that whole time
0:51 · though the only other country that ever
0:53 · formerly recognized chesa's Independence
0:54 · was Taliban ruled Afghanistan Chia
0:57 · fought two massive and brutal Wars of
0:59 · Independence against the Russians in the
1:00 · 1990s the first from 1994 to '96 that
1:03 · killed more than 100,000 people and
1:06 · resulted in their deao independence and
1:08 · the second war from 1999 to 2000 when
1:10 · the Russians finally overran Cheta and
1:12 · reincorporated it back into the Russian
1:14 · State many high ranking chuchin
1:16 · government officials then fled the
1:17 · country and formed a chuchin government
1:19 · in Exile in London that has continued
1:21 · existing to this day while in October of
1:23 · 20122 in the midst of the Russian
1:25 · invasion of Ukraine the Ukrainian
1:27 · government voted a formally recognize
1:29 · chesa status is being temporarily
1:31 · occupied by Russia and recognize the cin
1:34 · government in Exile as the territory's
1:35 · sole legitimate government essentially
1:37 · extending Ukraine's legal recognition of
1:39 · chchchchia as an independent state now
1:42 · the process of yugoslavia's collapse
1:44 · after 1991 similarly led to the creation
1:47 · of six or seven new independent
1:48 · countries depending on your point of
1:50 · view Slovenia Croatia bosnan and
1:51 · Herzegovina North Macedonia and the
1:53 · formerly United Serbia and Montenegro
1:55 · all emerged by the early 2000s while
1:57 · Montenegro further declared its own
1:59 · independent from Serbia in 2006 and then
2:02 · Kosovo unilaterally declared their
2:04 · independence from Serbia 2 in 2008 which
2:07 · remains legally disputed by Serbia and
2:09 · therefore remains controversial in 1993
2:11 · Czechoslovakia split into two new
2:13 · countries czechia and Slovakia the same
2:16 · year Eritrea managed to finally declare
2:18 · their own independence from Ethiopia
2:19 · after another decades long Independence
2:21 · struggle in 1994 Pala a small Pacific
2:24 · Island state achieved its sovereignty
2:26 · and effective independence from the
2:27 · United States in 2002 East Timmer became
2:30 · the first new independent country to
2:32 · emerge in the 21st century after a long
2:35 · independent struggle against Indonesia
2:37 · and then in 2011 South Sudan finally
2:39 · achieved its own independence from the
2:41 · rest of Sudan after another decades long
2:43 · Independence struggle that resulted in
2:44 · it becoming the world's youngest widely
2:46 · recognized independent state and member
2:48 · of the United Nations at least for now
2:51 · dozens of new countries became
2:52 · independent across the 199s but since
2:54 · the 21st century began we've only seen
2:56 · the four mostly widely recognized
2:58 · examples of East Montenegro Kosovo and
3:01 · South Sudan happened so far and no more
3:04 · widely recognized examples have taken
3:05 · place in the past 13 years now since
3:08 · 2011 and that BS an interesting question
3:11 · what are the most likely new countries
3:13 · that have the possibility to emerge on
3:14 · the world stage next there are many many
3:18 · possibilities out there that I'll cover
3:19 · in this video and many others that I
3:21 · won't I'm not going to cover any states
3:23 · here that already exist in a deao sense
3:25 · but lack widescale International
3:26 · recognition such as Koso claimed by
3:28 · Serbia the sahur Arab Democratic
3:30 · Republic claimed by Morocco the Turkish
3:32 · Republic of Northern Cypress claimed by
3:33 · Cyprus abazia and South oia claimed by
3:36 · Georgia transnistria claimed by mova
3:38 · Somali land claimed by Somalia or the
3:40 · Republic of China on Taiwan claimed by
3:41 · the People's Republic of China on the
3:43 · mainland I'm only going to cover
3:45 · potential new independent states that
3:47 · don't yet exist in either a legal desure
3:49 · sense nor in a deao sense and so to
3:52 · start this list off it seems most likely
3:54 · right now that the next newest country
3:56 · that will emerge soon and that will
3:58 · probably also be widely recognized as
· Bougainville
4:00 · the 194th member of the United Nations
4:03 · will be banville in the Western Pacific
4:05 · banville is geographically the
4:07 · westernmost en largest island in the
4:08 · Solomon Islands archipelago but while
4:10 · the rest of the Solomon Islands are an
4:11 · independent nation banville has long
4:14 · been politically a part of Papua New
4:15 · Guin instead the history dates back to
4:17 · the very end of the 19th century in 1899
4:20 · when the colonial German Empire laid
4:22 · claim to banville and annexed it into
4:23 · their nearby colony of German New Guinea
4:26 · then during World War I the Australians
4:28 · invaded and occupied the German colony
4:29 · in ug Guinea including banville and
4:32 · after the war's conclusion in 1920 all
4:34 · of modern day Papu and ug Guinea became
4:35 · an Australian mandate through the League
4:37 · of Nations which led to a long era of
4:39 · more than 60 years of nearly continuous
4:42 · Australian administration of the
4:43 · territory that was only briefly
4:45 · interrupted by the Japanese invasion of
4:47 · World War II after the war PPA New
4:49 · Guinea evolved into a un mandate under
4:51 · Australian Administration and then in
4:53 · the 1960s Australian geologists
4:56 · discovered that banville had massive
4:58 · deposits of copper on the Island so the
5:01 · Australian authorities did what every
5:02 · other colonial government at the time
5:03 · was doing and set up a huge copper mine
5:06 · on the island in 1972 that at the time
5:08 · was the largest open pit mine operating
5:11 · anywhere in the world the copper mine
5:13 · quickly became hugely important to the
5:14 · economy of Papa New Guinea it alone
5:16 · produced more than 45% of Papua New
5:19 · Guinea's entire National export revenue
5:21 · and the government received 20% of the
5:22 · mine's total profits of which the
5:25 · indigenous people of banville themselves
5:27 · only received a 0.5% to 1 25% share of
5:30 · the total profit thousands of outside
5:33 · workers from the Papa New Guinea
5:34 · Mainland and from Australia came to work
5:36 · at the banville mine across the 1970s
5:38 · and as more of them came and most of the
5:40 · prophets left the island the indigenous
5:41 · people in bugville began growing
5:43 · increasingly resentful there are massive
5:46 · cultural and linguistic differences
5:47 · between the Papua guine Mainland and
5:49 · banville Papua New guine itself is
5:51 · usually classified as being the most
5:52 · linguistically diverse country in the
5:54 · entire world with no less than 893
5:57 · separate languages that are known to be
5:59 · spoken in the country country it's also
6:00 · extremely rural with only about 133% of
6:03 · the population today living in cities
6:05 · across some of the most challenging
6:06 · mountainous and rainforest terrain on
6:08 · the planet Papa New Guinea is still such
6:10 · an isolated and remote part of the world
6:12 · that there isn't even an accepted
6:13 · consensus on what the country's actual
6:15 · population is still today the government
6:18 · officially reports their population
6:19 · today to be about 9.4 million but there
6:22 · are credible studies conducted as
6:24 · recently as December of 2022 then
6:26 · estimate the true population of the
6:28 · country is actually closer to 7
6:30 · million people nearly double what the
6:31 · government actually reports compared to
6:34 · the Papa New Guinea Mainland banville is
6:37 · much smaller and less populated with
6:38 · only around 300,000 residents today
6:41 · whose culture and ethnicity is more
6:42 · closely related to the melanesians of
6:44 · the neighboring Solomon Islands then to
6:46 · the Papua New Guinea Mainland and so
6:48 · perhaps understandably conflict began to
6:50 · Bubble Up to the surface between
6:52 · banville and Papua New Guinea after the
6:53 · opening of the massive open pit copper
6:55 · mine in the early 1970s Australia
6:58 · granted Papa new guinia Independence in
7:00 · September of 1975 that included banville
7:03 · but just a few days before the
7:05 · Independence was granted banville
7:06 · unilaterally declared itself as the
7:08 · independent republic of the north
7:09 · Solomons instead but after it failed to
7:12 · gain any International recognition
7:14 · banville agreed on a settlement several
7:15 · months later in August of 1976 to become
7:18 · absorbed into Papa New Guinea with a
7:19 · degree of political autonomy but
7:21 · tensions between banville and the Papa
7:23 · New Guinea government over the continued
7:24 · operation of the mine on the island
7:26 · continued growing until they exploded in
7:28 · outright Rebellion in 1988 when a
7:31 · separatist faction on the island called
7:32 · the banville Revolutionary Army rose up
7:34 · to fight for banville independence this
7:37 · resulted in a truly devastating decade
7:40 · war for independence that lasted until
7:42 · 1998 and which has been described by
7:44 · leaders as the largest military conflict
7:46 · to have been fought in the region of
7:47 · Oceania since the second world war as
7:50 · the Papa New Guinea government cracked
7:51 · down on banville hard in order to
7:53 · maintain their access to the Island's
7:55 · crucial copper mine Papu Nini enforced a
7:58 · total Maritime blockade of the Island
8:00 · and deployed thousands of their soldiers
8:01 · to the island to enforce Papua New
8:03 · guin's Authority estimates vary greatly
8:06 · as to how many people were killed in the
8:08 · decade long War but it's usually
8:10 · estimated that between 15,000 and 20,000
8:12 · people in banville died during the
8:14 · conflict while at least 300 Papu guini
8:17 · soldiers were killed and thousands more
8:19 · were wounded that means that in the
8:21 · decade long war for independence between
8:23 · 1988 to 1998 roughly 10% of banville
8:27 · entire pre-war population died while
8:29 · tens of thousands more were placed into
8:31 · internally displaced person camps the
8:33 · two Waring sides agreed on a ceasefire
8:35 · in 1997 and Papo Nini forces began
8:38 · withdrawing from the island the
8:39 · following year in 1998 while Australian
8:42 · peacekeepers came in to take their place
8:44 · a formal peace agreement was settled
8:46 · between banville and the papini
8:47 · government in 2001 that solidified
8:49 · banville status as a fully autonomous
8:52 · part of the country and which also
8:53 · granted banville the right to hold a
8:55 · non-binding referendum on outright
8:57 · Independence within 20 years in the
8:59 · future that promised referendum was
9:01 · eventually held in banville at the end
9:02 · of 2019 which saw an absolutely
9:05 · overwhelming vote of
9:07 · 98.3% of Voters on the island choosing
9:10 · independence with a huge
9:12 · 87.4% voter turnout showing that the
9:15 · will of the banville people clearly
9:17 · desired Independence and though the
9:19 · referendum was technically non-binding
9:21 · on the part of the Papa New Guinea
9:22 · government the overwhelming results of
9:24 · it for Independence and all of the
9:26 · previous history have made it extremely
9:28 · difficult for the government just to
9:30 · Simply ignore it and so in July of 2021
9:33 · banville and the Papo New Guinea
9:34 · government came to an agreement that
9:36 · banville will be granted its formal
9:38 · independence from the country no earlier
9:40 · than 2025 and no later than 2027 pending
9:44 · legal ratification by the Papa New
9:46 · Guinea Parliament and although to date
9:48 · when this video was made that
9:49 · ratification hasn't been given yet it
9:51 · seems fairly certain still that banville
9:53 · will become the world's next largely
9:55 · recognized independent country sometime
9:57 · by 2027 and will likely replace South
10:00 · Sudan as the world's youngest
10:01 · independent country by then but what
10:04 · about other less likely candidates for
10:06 · new countries to emerge relatively
· New Caledonia
10:07 · nearby to banville is also new calonia
10:10 · which is probably at least in my opinion
10:12 · the next most likely place to eventually
10:14 · become a newly independent country New
10:16 · Caledonia currently Still Remains as a
10:17 · legal overseas territory of France
10:19 · despite the fact that the island is in
10:21 · the Pacific and is located about 177,000
10:23 · kmers away from Metropolitan France over
10:25 · on the other side of the world in Europe
10:27 · the French annexed new calonia back in
10:29 · 1853 and ever since then successive
10:31 · waves of European Polynesian and other
10:33 · settlers have come to the island that
10:35 · have made the indigenous ethnic konok
10:36 · people on the island of minority where
10:38 · today they only represent about 41% of
10:41 · new caledonia's total population of
10:42 · about 270,000 people with Europeans
10:45 · representing another 24% of the
10:47 · population and various Polynesians and
10:49 · other groups representing most of the
10:50 · rest for decades under French colonial
10:52 · rule in the 19th and early 20th
10:54 · centuries the indigenous kanak were
10:55 · largely marginalized excluded from the
10:57 · Island's economy and eventually confined
10:59 · into a system of reservations like
11:00 · indigenous Americans were in the Western
11:02 · Hemisphere by the 1970s a modern
11:04 · Independence and sovereignty movement
11:06 · began growing in popularity among the
11:08 · indigenous kanok people on the island
11:09 · who were frustrated with their lower
11:11 · socioeconomic status relative to the
11:13 · European settlers of the island and so
11:15 · the movement steadily adopted more
11:16 · violent methods to advance their cause
11:19 · the biggest violent incident occurred in
11:20 · 1988 when a group of 30 heavily armed
11:23 · kanok Independence Fighters attacked a
11:25 · French military outpost on the island
11:27 · killing four French soldiers and taking
11:28 · another 36 people including some
11:30 · civilians as hostages the group demanded
11:33 · that the hostages would be released in
11:34 · exchange for serious talks with the
11:36 · French government on the independence of
11:38 · New Caledonia France refused to
11:40 · negotiate and deployed a crack hostage
11:42 · recovery team made up of dozens of
11:43 · French Commandos paratroopers and G
11:46 · counterterror specialist to raid them
11:48 · instead in the ensuing raid the French
11:50 · killed 19 of the kic hostage takers and
11:53 · successfully freed all of the hostages
11:55 · while two of the French soldiers in the
11:56 · assault team were also killed resulting
11:58 · in the total deaths of 25 people during
12:01 · the bloody incident in the aftermath the
12:03 · French government and the kanuk
12:05 · independence movement agreed on a
12:06 · 10-year truce to secure stability on the
12:08 · island and after the decade had passed
12:10 · in 1998 without any other major
12:12 · incidents the French government and the
12:14 · major Pro and anti-independence parties
12:16 · on the island all signed the newa Accord
12:19 · which established a 20-year transitional
12:20 · period until 2018 in which certain
12:22 · powers would be transferred to the local
12:24 · government and which also guaranteed
12:26 · that after those 20 years beginning in
12:28 · 2018 new calonia would be allowed to
12:30 · host three separate Independence
12:32 · referendums that would determine the
12:34 · Island's future political status and so
12:37 · the first of these Independence
12:38 · referendums in New Caledonia was hosted
12:39 · in 2018 which was soundly rejected with
12:43 · 56.7% of Voters choosing to remain with
12:45 · France and only 43.3% of Voters choosing
12:48 · independence with a total voter turnout
12:50 · on the island of
12:52 · 81% then the second Independence
12:54 · referendum was hosted a couple years
12:55 · later in 2020 That Grew much more narrow
12:58 · this time with only 53.3% of Voters
13:01 · choosing to remain with France and 46.7%
13:04 · of Voters choosing to become independent
13:06 · with an even higher voter turnout this
13:08 · time of
13:09 · 85.7% the momentum appeared to be rising
13:12 · for the pro- independent side and with
13:14 · the final referendum on Independence
13:16 · scheduled for December 2021 all eyes
13:18 · were fixated on what would happen next
13:22 · but in between the second and third
13:23 · referendums the covid-19 pandemic hit
13:26 · the island and ravaged it which resulted
13:28 · in more than three 300 deaths that
13:30 · disproportionately affected the
13:31 · indigenous Kana community that was more
13:33 · pro-independence it quickly became clear
13:36 · that the next referendum would take
13:37 · place during a period of customary
13:38 · mourning within the Kana Community for
13:40 · their lost ones but the government's
13:42 · Health restrictions had made campaigning
13:43 · for the final referendum largely
13:45 · impossible so the pro-independence
13:47 · parties on the island became worried
13:49 · that this would all contribute to a
13:50 · lower voter turnout than in either of
13:52 · the previous referendums and so they
13:54 · began asking the French government to
13:56 · reschedule the final referendum until
13:58 · after the pandemic get settled down more
14:00 · but the French government refused to
14:01 · reschedule the referendum and went ahead
14:03 · with it as originally planned in
14:04 · December of 2021 which led to all of the
14:07 · pro-independence parties on the island
14:09 · announcing that they would boycott the
14:10 · vote and protest as a result the remain
14:13 · with France Choice secured an
14:15 · overwhelming
14:16 · 96.5% of the 2021 vote while only 3.5%
14:20 · of Voters chose Independence and with a
14:24 · very low voter turnout this time of only
14:26 · 43.9% of the island since all the
14:29 · pro-independence parties had boycotted
14:31 · it but none of that stopped France's
14:33 · president Emanuel macron from visiting
14:35 · New Caledonia himself afterwards where
14:37 · he proudly proclaimed that the 2021 vote
14:40 · had confirmed the will of caledonians to
14:42 · stay French while he further emphasized
14:44 · the new calonia had a vital role to play
14:47 · in France's geopolitical strategy for
14:49 · the Indo Pacific region new calonia
14:51 · places Sovereign French territory
14:53 · relatively nearby to the South China Sea
14:56 · Taiwan and China while new calonia much
14:58 · like Bo enville is also rich in specific
15:01 · natural resources new calonia is
15:03 · specifically HED to between 10% and 25%
15:06 · of all the world's proven reserves of
15:08 · nickel a metal that is becoming
15:10 · increasingly important as a major
15:11 · component of batteries and electric
15:13 · vehicles France's control over new
15:15 · calonia makes it the fourth largest
15:17 · producer of nickel in the entire world
15:19 · remaining only behind the likes of
15:21 · Russia the Philippines and Indonesia
15:23 · after the controversial 2021 referendum
15:25 · France has publicly left open the
15:27 · possibility that another referendum on
15:29 · Independence could be hosted in New
15:30 · Caledonia again within the time span of
15:32 · one or two more Generations from now or
15:35 · in other words maybe in 20 to 40 years
15:37 · from now but the pro-independence
15:39 · parties in New Caledonia have all
15:41 · adamantly rejected this timeline and
15:43 · they're currently in the process of
15:44 · attempting to challenge the 2021
15:46 · referendum results to the international
15:47 · court of justice in the ha but it's
15:49 · unclear if the court will actually even
15:51 · agree to hear their case or not as it
15:53 · stands now new caledonia's near-term
15:56 · future looks like it will continue
15:57 · remaining as a part of France but in the
16:00 · more distant future another referendum
16:02 · could potentially always happen that
16:03 · could lead to the Island's Independence
16:05 · eventually remaining within the
16:07 · indopacific region we'll refocus a bit
· Western New Guinea
16:09 · on the area of Western New Guinea the
16:11 · Western half of the island of New Guinea
16:12 · that is politically controlled by
16:14 · Indonesia like the other half of the
16:15 · island that's independent under Papua
16:17 · New Guinea Western New Guinea is one of
16:19 · the most remote isolated and undeveloped
16:21 · corners of the world remaining in the
16:22 · 21st century home to only about 5.6
16:25 · million people today in an area that's
16:26 · larger than Japan it's also one of the
16:28 · most sparsely populated regions of the
16:30 · world as well the area is so remote and
16:32 · its mountainous jungle interior so
16:35 · difficult to access that it's estimated
16:36 · there are still at least 40 uncontacted
16:38 · tribes remaining there who maintain no
16:40 · contact with the outside world and
16:42 · continue living a prehistoric hunter
16:44 · gatherer lifestyle more than 400
16:46 · languages are believed to be spoken in
16:48 · Western New Guinea while the largest
16:49 · settlement in the territory jaap Pera is
16:52 · more than 3700 km or 2300 M away from
16:55 · Indonesia's Capital Jakarta about as far
16:58 · away as London is from Armenia as a
17:00 · result the culture and ethnicity in
17:01 · Western ug Guinea is extremely different
17:03 · and isolated from the rest of Indonesia
17:06 · and there's been an ongoing separatist
17:07 · movement in the region for decades
17:09 · pretty much ever since Indonesia took
17:11 · the area over when Indonesia declared
17:13 · its independence from the Netherlands in
17:15 · August of 1945 it initially didn't
17:17 · include the Western half in New Guinea
17:19 · which still remained under Dutch
17:20 · Colonial control the Dutch wanted to
17:22 · retain their own control over Western ug
17:24 · Guinea and effectively turn it into a
17:25 · self-governing territory of theirs but
17:28 · Indonesia seriousely contested this
17:30 · asserting that it was the legal
17:32 · successor to all of the territory of the
17:33 · former Dutch East Indies which included
17:36 · all of Western New Guinea 2o a decade
17:38 · and a half later in 1961 the Dutch
17:40 · prepared to Grant Western ug Guinea
17:42 · their separate Independence which led to
17:44 · the first raising of the Region's
17:45 · morning star flag in its history a
17:48 · symbol that has ever since become deeply
17:49 · attached to the west Papa Independence
17:51 · Movement but Indonesia's Fierce
17:53 · opposition to this development led to
17:55 · them and the Netherlands coming together
17:57 · to negotiate the New York agreement in
17:59 · 1962 which made it so that instead of
18:01 · becoming outright independent Western
18:03 · New Guinea's Authority would be
18:04 · temporarily transferred from the Dutch
18:06 · to the United Nations and then later
18:08 · transferred again to the Indonesian
18:09 · government who had then handled the
18:11 · preparation for a self-determination
18:13 · referendum in the territory to take
18:14 · place that would determine its ultimate
18:16 · future in the years that Then followed
18:18 · Indonesian government forces reportedly
18:20 · began arresting and exiling
18:21 · pro-independence political activists and
18:23 · leaders in the territory and when they
18:25 · finally allowed a referendum on the
18:26 · territory status to take place in 196 9
18:29 · rather than opening it up to everybody
18:31 · in the territory with one vote per
18:33 · person the Indonesians only granted a
18:35 · total of
18:36 · 1,22 local Representatives that they had
18:38 · handpicked to take part in the
18:40 · referendum the right to actually vote on
18:42 · it who naturally all voted unanimously
18:45 · to merge Western ug Guinea with
18:46 · Indonesia the Indonesian authorities
18:48 · have argued ever since that that system
18:50 · of Representative voting was necessary
18:52 · because of the territory's
18:53 · geographically difficult terrain
18:55 · remoteness and the lack of development
18:57 · in the region but nonetheless class a
18:59 · militant pro-independence movement was
19:01 · born in Western New Guinea that is since
19:03 · evolved into the modern free Papa
19:04 · movement which continues to violently
19:06 · fight against the Indonesian State for
19:08 · the independence of Western New Guinea
19:10 · and since 2021 the movement has been
19:12 · considered as a terrorist organization
19:14 · by the Indonesian government while even
19:16 · flying the movement's morning star flag
19:18 · is legally considered by the Indonesian
19:20 · government to be treason that can carry
19:22 · up to a 7 to 20e prison sentence and
19:24 · since the Indonesian government is very
19:26 · strict about allowing foreign journalist
19:28 · permission to enter the territory the
19:30 · information on what exactly the
19:32 · situation looks like in the territory
19:33 · from an independence perspective is very
19:35 · difficult to par so who really
19:38 · ultimately knows Western ug Guinea could
19:40 · eventually become an independent country
19:42 · and free itself from Indonesian rule
19:43 · like East Timber did before it in 2002
19:46 · or it might also not but either way
19:49 · another island territory that's probably
19:50 · a lot more certain to eventually become
19:52 · an independent country one day is going
· Greenland
19:54 · to be Greenland Greenland is currently
19:57 · governed as an autonomous territory
19:58 · belong into the Kingdom of Denmark as it
20:00 · has for centuries ever since 1814 when
20:02 · Denmark acquired the territory from
20:04 · Norway since that time Denmark fully
20:06 · Incorporated Greenland into the Danish
20:08 · state in 1953 when it granted all of
20:10 · Greenland's residents Danish citizenship
20:12 · while in 1979 Denmark granted Greenland
20:15 · a referendum on home rule that was
20:17 · approved while a further referendum on
20:19 · increasing the Island's self-government
20:21 · even more was granted in 2008 that was
20:23 · also approved by 75% of Voters that
20:26 · transferred most of the Danish
20:27 · government's authorities and respons
20:28 · responsibilities in Greenland to the
20:30 · local greenlandic government leaving
20:31 · pretty much only Greenland's foreign and
20:33 · defense policies monetary policy and
20:35 · citizenship policy still in the hands of
20:37 · Denmark despite its huge Geographic size
20:39 · though Greenland's population is very
20:41 · small today and only about 57,000 people
20:44 · only about the same as a medium-sized
20:46 · town and about 90% of the small
20:48 · population on the island are ethnically
20:50 · Inuit While most of the remaining 10%
20:52 · are composed of Danes and other European
20:54 · ethnicities under the terms of the 2008
20:56 · self-government referendum that was
20:57 · overwhelmingly approved in Greenland the
21:00 · island was also granted the right by
21:01 · Denmark to hold an independence
21:03 · referendum whenever they wanted to to
21:05 · determine the Island's ultimate
21:06 · political status in future despite This
21:09 · legal ability to call a referendum
21:11 · though there has long been a lot of
21:12 · hesitation within Greenland to actually
21:14 · move forward with fullscale Independence
21:16 · rather than maintaining the status quo
21:18 · as an autonomous part of Denmark Denmark
21:21 · currently maintains a generous annual
21:23 · subsidy to the island of $500 million a
21:25 · year which accounts for 20% of
21:27 · Greenland's entire small economy and
21:30 · provides for more than half of the local
21:31 · greenlandic government's budget moreover
21:33 · through Denmark greenlandic residents
21:35 · are also all citizens of the European
21:37 · Union as well if Greenland decided to go
21:39 · their own separate way from Denmark they
21:42 · would almost certainly lose the Danish
21:43 · subsidies and lose their EU citizenship
21:46 · as well which would almost certainly
21:47 · negatively affect the greenlandic
21:49 · economy nonetheless support for
21:51 · Independence in Greenland appears to
21:53 · remain fairly High a 2019 poll conducted
21:55 · by the University of Copenhagen in
21:57 · Greenland found that a w being
21:59 · 67.7% of adults in Greenland desired the
22:02 · island to become a fully independent
22:03 · state at some point in the future with
22:05 · 32.4% of greenlandic adults further
22:07 · insisting that secession will still
22:09 · benefit their economy and improve their
22:11 · living conditions in April of 2023 the
22:14 · movement for full greenlandic
22:15 · Independence appeared to advance
22:17 · significantly when the greenlandic
22:19 · parliament unveiled its first ever draft
22:21 · Constitution the Greenland could one day
22:23 · rely upon if it ever comes to
22:24 · negotiating its independence from
22:26 · Denmark in the event that Greenland
22:28 · hosts arest referendum on Independence
22:29 · that passes this draft Constitution will
22:31 · become the framework for a final
22:33 · Constitution that will transform
22:35 · Greenland into an independent republic
22:37 · and though no discussions on a timeline
22:39 · for an independence referendum have been
22:40 · put forward yet the next parliamentary
22:42 · election in Greenland is currently
22:44 · scheduled for next year in 2025 and its
22:47 · results could indicate whether or not
22:48 · the independence movement on the island
22:50 · will move further forward it therefore
22:52 · wouldn't be terribly surprising if
22:54 · Greenland one day soon does actually
22:56 · host a legal referendum on Independence
22:58 · that passes and makes itself one of the
23:00 · world's newest independent countries in
23:02 · the process while other prospective
23:04 · independent country candidates may find
23:05 · it difficult to secure the right to a
23:07 · legal referendum of their own one other
· 󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland
23:10 · such prospective candidate is Scotland
23:12 · where the idea of an independent
23:13 · Scottish nation has been around for a
23:15 · very long time Scotland indeed was an
23:18 · independent Kingdom for many centuries
23:20 · across the middle ages and fought many
23:22 · wars against England to maintain that
23:24 · Independence Scotland was first joined
23:26 · with England in a personal Union in 160
23:28 · 3 when the King of Scotland at the time
23:30 · James I 6 also became the king of
23:32 · England at the same time as John the a
23:35 · century later Scotland and England were
23:37 · formly unified politically into a single
23:39 · Kingdom through the acts of Union in
23:40 · 1707 that established the modern United
23:43 · Kingdom as we still know it today though
23:45 · Scotland continued to maintain its own
23:47 · separate Regional identity and culture
23:49 · all throughout the centuries the modern
23:51 · movement for Scottish independence from
23:52 · the UK began to gain momentum in the
23:54 · late 20th century and by 1999 the UK
23:57 · government allowed for the establish
23:58 · ment of a devolved Scottish Parliament
24:00 · that came under the governing authority
24:01 · of the pro-independence Scottish
24:03 · national party or SNP by 2007 and then
24:06 · by 2011 the SNP had won the outright
24:09 · majority of seats in the Scottish
24:10 · Parliament which the British government
24:12 · agreed to legally grant them three years
24:14 · later in 2014 in the Scotland wide
24:17 · referendum that took place that year
24:18 · voters were asked Point Blank should
24:20 · Scotland be an independent country the
24:23 · previous months and years worth of
24:24 · intense campaigning from both the remain
24:26 · and leave sides of the question led to a
24:29 · significant
24:30 · 84.6% voter turnout in Scotland that saw
24:33 · more than 3.6 million Scots going to the
24:36 · polls and in the end after the votes had
24:38 · been counted and tallied the choice to
24:40 · remain with the UK was clear with 55.3%
24:43 · of Voters choosing to remain with the UK
24:46 · and rejecting Independence up against
24:48 · 44.7% of Voters who had answered the
24:50 · question with a yes and were in favor of
24:53 · Independence but then just 2 years later
24:56 · in 2016 the UK hosted a another
24:58 · referendum that this time the entire
25:00 · country participated in on whether or
25:02 · not the country should remain or
25:04 · withdraw from the European Union
25:06 · referred to as the brexit referendum it
25:08 · saw a total Nationwide voter turnout of
25:11 · 72.2% in which a slight majority of
25:14 · Voters 51.9% of them selected that the
25:17 · UK should withdraw from the European
25:19 · Union while 48.1% of Voters chose to
25:22 · remain in the EU the vote sent into
25:24 · motion the process of the UK formally
25:26 · withdrawing from the European Union
25:28 · which was completed 4 years later in
25:30 · 2020 but during the 2016 brexit vote not
25:33 · all parts of the UK voted equally
25:36 · England and Wales both largely voted to
25:38 · leave the EU while London Northern
25:40 · Ireland and Scotland all voted more
25:41 · largely to remain within Scotland voters
25:44 · were significantly more in favor of
25:46 · remaining with the EU than elsewhere in
25:48 · the country with 62% of Scottish voters
25:51 · in the referendum choosing to remain in
25:52 · the EU compared with only 38% who voted
25:55 · to leave one of the primary reasons that
25:58 · many Scottish voters had chosen to
26:00 · remain within the UK back in the
26:01 · previous 2014 referendum was at the time
26:04 · the perceived headache that would happen
26:06 · with Scotland leaving the UK and
26:08 · therefore leaving the EU as well which
26:10 · would have left Scotland outside of the
26:12 · EU and forced them to reapply to join
26:14 · back in which would have ended up taking
26:15 · an unknown amount of time to get
26:17 · themselves re-accepted but then after
26:19 · 2016 it became clear that the UK was
26:22 · leaving the EU anyway and dragging
26:24 · Scotland along with it which quickly led
26:26 · to frequent demands from the Scottish
26:28 · National Party On hosting a second
26:30 · referendum on Scottish independence
26:32 · since the material circumstances of the
26:34 · UK's position in the European Union had
26:36 · fundamentally changed Scotland's first
26:39 · Minister Nicholas sturgeon requested
26:41 · another Independence referendum from UK
26:43 · prime minister Boris Johnson in 2019
26:46 · which was denied on the basis that the
26:47 · 2014 referendum was supposedly a once in
26:50 · a generation event then in January of
26:53 · 2021 sturgeon again claimed that a
26:55 · second Independence referendum would be
26:57 · held if the pro-independence parties won
26:59 · a majority of seats in that Year's
27:01 · Scottish parliamentary election which
27:03 · indeed ended up happening and so then in
27:05 · June of 2022 sturgeon proposed that a
27:08 · second Independence referendum would be
27:09 · held a year later in October of 2023
27:12 · provided that the legality and
27:14 · constitutionality of the referendum was
27:16 · guaranteed so she again requested
27:18 · another referendum from the prime
27:20 · minister at the time Boris Johnson which
27:22 · was once again refused then in November
27:25 · of 2022 the UK Supreme Court ruled that
27:27 · the Scottish Parliament doesn't have the
27:29 · legal Authority or the power to
27:30 · unilaterally call for another
27:32 · Independence referendum and so
27:33 · sturgeon's current stance is that the
27:35 · next upcoming UK general election in
27:37 · January of 2025 will serve as a deao
27:40 · referendum on Scotland's Independence
27:42 · anyway the legal route to Scotland
27:44 · holding another referendum on
27:45 · Independence anytime soon is now in
27:47 · seriously grave doubt while opinion
27:49 · pulling on the matter in Scotland has
27:51 · shown a recent Trend further towards
27:53 · favoring Independence after the Supreme
27:55 · Court's final judgment in November of
27:57 · 2022 the first five polls conducted
28:00 · showed that a slight majority of Scots
28:02 · were in favor of Independence ranging
28:04 · from between 51% and 56% in favor while
28:07 · a separate Nationwide poll showed that
28:09 · for the very first time a majority of
28:11 · all UK residents 55% of them Express
28:15 · support for the Scottish government
28:16 · being granted the right to hold a second
28:18 · referendum on Independence so again who
28:21 · really knows how this will all shape up
28:22 · in the future legally the path to
28:24 · Scotland's Independence currently seems
28:26 · pretty closed at this point but if
28:28 · opinion polling continues to suggest
28:29 · that a majority of Scots are in favor of
28:31 · Independence the British government may
28:33 · eventually not be able to ignore the
28:35 · demands of a second referendum forever
28:38 · but it can also always turn into a
28:39 · similar situation that's been going on
· Catalonia
28:41 · in Spain for decades now with their own
28:43 · major separatist movements in Catalonia
28:44 · and the bass country the Catalin are a
28:46 · romance ethnic group who traditionally
28:48 · straddle the Eastern Mediterranean shore
28:50 · of the Iberian Peninsula the Catalin
28:52 · Trace their history in the region back
28:54 · centuries while their language Catalan
28:56 · is a romance language but one that is
28:57 · distinct different from the neighboring
28:59 · Spanish or French in the modern day
29:01 · region of Catalonia and Northeastern
29:02 · Spain roughly 37.6% of the population
29:05 · today are native speakers of Catalan
29:07 · over Spanish which has about 3 million
29:09 · people there however the modern
29:11 · independence movement in Catalonia can
29:13 · be traced back to the late 19th and
29:14 · early 20th centuries when a sense of
29:16 · separate Catalan nationalism began
29:18 · taking root they consider their identity
29:20 · as being distinctly separate from that
29:22 · of Spain in 1931 after the proclamation
29:24 · of the second Spanish Republic Catalonia
29:26 · was granted wide sweeping at autonomy
29:28 · and home rule within Spain with its own
29:30 · local Parliament and even its own
29:32 · separate elected president but then
29:34 · after the Spanish Civil War of 1936 to
29:36 · 1939 ended with a victory for the
29:38 · Nationalist side and the establishment
29:39 · of an authoritarian dictatorship under
29:41 · General Francisco Franco Catalonia's
29:43 · previous and brief era of autonomy was
29:45 · completely crushed and reversed the
29:47 · Catalan language was completely banned
29:49 · and repressed as the francoist regime
29:51 · attempted to enforce a unified Spanish
29:53 · culture and language across the entire
29:55 · country Franco as Spain continue to
29:57 · exist until Franco himself died decades
30:00 · later in 1975 which finally allowed
30:03 · Catalan culture and political parties to
30:05 · begin reemerging and advocating for the
30:06 · restoration of their autonomy once again
30:09 · with the restoration of democracy in
30:11 · Spain in 1977 Catalonia received a new
30:14 · statute of autonomy from the Spanish
30:16 · government in 1979 and then decades
30:18 · later in 2006 when a socialist
30:21 · government was in power in Madrid that
30:22 · was more sympathetic to Cataline rights
30:25 · a referendum in Catalonia was allowed to
30:26 · be held that would span the Region's
30:28 · political and cultural autonomy even
30:30 · further with a brand new statute that
30:32 · was approved of by voters and then by
30:34 · both the Catalan and Spanish governments
30:36 · but then just 4 years later after that
30:39 · in 2010 the Spanish constitutional Court
30:42 · ruled on the new autonomy law and
30:43 · effectively gutted it rewriting 14 of
30:46 · the laws articles and dictating the
30:48 · interpretation for 27 additional
30:50 · articles this was the event that
30:51 · triggered huge protests all across
30:54 · Catalonia that included a March in
30:55 · Barcelona of more than a million people
30:58 · strong and as time went on from there
31:00 · the angry calls within Catalonia
31:02 · gradually shifted from increased
31:03 · autonomy to outright independence by
31:06 · 2012 a poll released by the center for
31:08 · opinion studies run by the Catalan
31:10 · government showed that support for
31:11 · Catalonia's Independence within the
31:13 · territory had risen to an unprecedented
31:15 · level of
31:16 · 57% and then the UK agreeed to Grant
31:19 · Scotland the legal right to host their
31:21 · own independence referendum added
31:23 · further fuel to the fire parties across
31:25 · the political Spectrum in Catalonia
31:27 · formed a Coalition calling for the
31:29 · Region's Independence the Catalan
31:31 · government demanded a formal
31:32 · Independence referendum be granted to
31:34 · them which the Spanish government simply
31:36 · refused to allow nonetheless in spite of
31:39 · the Spanish government's refusal to
31:40 · allow a legal referendum to take place
31:42 · the Catalan political authorities
31:44 · organized an illegal referendum anyway
31:46 · in 2017 that generated an incredible
31:50 · amount of controversy and drama before
31:52 · the referendum was even held on the 1st
31:53 · of October of that year the Spanish
31:55 · government and constitutional Court
31:57 · declared the ref referendum to be
31:58 · unconstitutional and illegal a few weeks
32:00 · beforehand while the Spanish police
32:02 · began a widescale Crackdown of the
32:04 · referendum in polling stations all
32:06 · across Catalonia leaning up to the vote
32:08 · and after it which included physical
32:10 · assaults on voters and seized ballots
32:12 · anti-independence parties in Catalonia
32:14 · declared a boycott of the vote and so
32:16 · when the referendum was finally held on
32:18 · the 1st of October 2017 voter turnout
32:21 · came in very low at only 43% of
32:23 · registered voters still 92% of those
32:27 · voters repres representing more than 2
32:29 · million people or about 38% of all of
32:32 · Catalonia's registered voters still
32:34 · chose yes on the referendum to secede
32:36 · from Spain and form an independent
32:38 · Catalonia within weeks the Catalin
32:40 · government issued its formal declaration
32:42 · of independence from Spain which
32:44 · prompted the Spanish government to
32:45 · respond with the nuclear option the
32:48 · Spanish Senate voted to seize control of
32:50 · Catalin government institutions while
32:52 · Spain's prime minister used his
32:53 · executive powers to dismiss Catalonia's
32:55 · president Carlos Pont and his entire ire
32:58 · cabinet while fresh elections in
32:59 · Catalonia were called up to happen 2
33:01 · months later the Spanish police raided
33:03 · the offices of Catalonia's government
33:05 · leaders and arrested many on
33:06 · unprecedented charges of rebellion while
33:08 · the former catalonian president fled
33:10 · into exile for Belgium most of the
33:12 · leaders were later pardoned in 2021 but
33:15 · Catalonia's 2017 attempt to secede from
33:17 · the country was resoundingly crushed by
33:20 · the Spanish authorities nonetheless
33:22 · support within Catalonia for at least a
33:24 · legally recognized Independence
33:26 · referendum continues to appear very high
33:28 · an April 2023 poll suggested that 77% of
33:32 · respondents in Catalonia at least
33:34 · supported being granted the right to
33:36 · hold a legally recognized referendum
33:38 · well only about 43% of the respondents
33:40 · in the same poll said that they still
33:42 · favored an independent status for
33:44 · Catalonia one of the biggest reasons
33:46 · that the Spanish authorities are so
33:48 · opposed to the idea of Catalan
33:49 · Independence is that if they happen to
33:52 · Grant it it might end up opening up a
33:54 · Pandora's box of potential possibilities
33:56 · and open up the CH for more of Spain's
33:59 · ethnic and linguistic minorities to
34:00 · demand their own independences next
· Basque Country
34:03 · besides the catalans the bks have been
34:05 · the most historically independent-minded
34:06 · group of people in Spain and they would
34:08 · be the most likely ones to demand their
34:10 · own independence next the concept of the
34:12 · Bas country extends across the borders
34:14 · of Spain and France along the western
34:16 · edge of their border where about 3
34:17 · million Basque people live today the
34:19 · vast majority of whom all live on the
34:21 · Spanish side the indigenous language
34:23 · that is spoken by The Basque people is
34:25 · highly unique in the context of Europe
34:27 · at Large The Basque language is the sole
34:29 · surviving paleo European language on the
34:31 · continent that remains indigenously
34:33 · spoken today and it predates the arrival
34:35 · of any of the Indo European languages
34:37 · that came during the Bronze Age as a
34:40 · result The Basque language is classified
34:42 · as a very rare language isolate
34:44 · remaining linguistically unrelated to
34:46 · any other known language still spoken on
34:48 · the planet roughly 28.4% of the people
34:51 · in the Bas country speak The Basque
34:53 · language natively today which is about
34:56 · 750,000 people 700,000 of whom live in
34:59 · Spain in a concentrated Arc across the
35:01 · Spanish Northeast Coast with the
35:02 · Atlantic near the border with France and
35:05 · just like with the Catalin language The
35:07 · Basque language was also banned and
35:09 · harshly repressed within Spain during
35:10 · the francoist era and influenced by
35:12 · National Liberation events that were
35:14 · going on elsewhere at the time of the
35:15 · early 1960s in the context of
35:17 · decolonization a militant Basque
35:19 · separatist organization known as ETA
35:21 · formed in 1959 with the explicit goal of
35:24 · using violence to secure the
35:26 · independence of a Bas State this was the
35:29 · beginning of the Basque conflict a half
35:31 · a century of violence between ETA and
35:33 · the Spanish state that would last all
35:35 · the way up until
35:36 · 2011 during that time more than a
35:38 · thousand people several hundred of whom
35:40 · were civilians were killed as a result
35:43 · of the violence that included bombings
35:44 · and assassinations while more than
35:46 · 22,000 others were injured and what has
35:49 · sometimes been described as the longest
35:51 · Modern War fought in Western Europe a
35:53 · war that continued for decades longer
35:55 · even after Franco died and the the Bas
35:58 · country was granted widescale autonomy
36:00 · along with Catalonia in 1979 Eda was
36:03 · classified as a terrorist organization
36:04 · by Spain France the UK US and the
36:07 · European Union but then after Decades of
36:09 · violence Eda finally announced an end to
36:12 · their armed struggle against the Spanish
36:13 · state only in 2011 and they eventually
36:16 · fully disbanded themselves altogether
36:18 · just in 2018 The Mask region of Spain is
36:21 · these days generally considered to have
36:22 · the highest degree of autonomy of any
36:24 · non-state actor in the European Union
36:27 · were there even allowed to collect and
36:28 · keep their own taxes and while an
36:30 · independence referendum has never been
36:31 · hosted in the Bas country by Spain
36:33 · before the support for holding one among
36:35 · the Bas appears to remain fairly strong
36:38 · polling in the Spanish Basque country
36:40 · has shown a steady increase in the
36:41 · desire for Basque Independence that's
36:43 · generally followed along with the same
36:45 · Modern Trend that's been seen in
36:46 · Catalonia a 2010 poll from the
36:48 · University of the Bas country found that
36:50 · only 30% of Bas supported independence
36:53 · at the time compared to 55% who were
36:56 · against it but then another poll they
36:57 · conducted 4 years later in 2014 showed
37:00 · that support had shifted towards 34% who
37:02 · were in favor of Independence up against
37:05 · 52% who are opposed to it while polling
37:07 · since 2020 has shown significantly more
37:10 · support for Independence than before the
37:12 · first nazio meta National barometer poll
37:15 · which seeks to regularly measure the
37:17 · feelings on Independence in the Bas
37:18 · country took place in 2020 and it found
37:21 · that 42.5% of respondents were in favor
37:24 · of Independence up against 31.5% who
37:27 · were opposed to it then the second nazio
37:29 · matoa poll in March of 2021 showed 39.5%
37:33 · in favor of Independence up against
37:35 · 29.5% opposed to it and then the most
37:38 · recent third nazio Metro poll conducted
37:40 · in November of 2021 showed that 40.5% of
37:44 · respondents were in favor of
37:45 · Independence compared with just 29.2%
37:48 · who were opposed to it so who knows
37:51 · maybe like Catalonia if the desire for
37:53 · Independence within the bass country
37:54 · continues growing and eventually gets
37:56 · too large for the Spanish government to
37:57 · Simply ignore a referendum may
38:00 · eventually be granted and if Catalonia
38:02 · ever manages its independence first it's
38:04 · probably a certainty that the basks
38:06 · won't be far behind them next I think
38:08 · that at least at this rate the odds of
38:10 · Scotland Catalonia or The Basque Country
· Quebec
38:12 · one day becoming independent are greater
38:14 · than the biggest historical separatist
38:15 · movement over in the Western Hemisphere
38:17 · ever succeeding Quebec Quebec has always
38:20 · been a unique province in Canada being
38:22 · the only one with a predominantly
38:23 · french-speaking majority in culture KC's
38:25 · population today is roughly 9 million
38:27 · people and the province's sole official
38:29 · language is French and specifically not
38:32 · English as of the most recent 2021
38:34 · Canadian census French is the native
38:36 · language of more than 78% of Quebec's
38:38 · population while roughly 94% of the
38:41 · province's population speaks French
38:42 · fluently compared to only 8% of the
38:45 · population who lists English as their
38:46 · native language and only 52% of the
38:49 · population who consider themselves even
38:50 · fluent in English which is AB on the
38:52 · same level of English proficiency as
38:54 · Greece Quebec has therefore always been
38:56 · an isolated bubble of the French
38:58 · language in the America surrounded on
38:59 · all of its sides by English speakers
39:02 · which has always contributed to a
39:03 · certain feeling of separateness and
39:05 · nationalism within Quebec that has never
39:07 · really gone away the peak of Quebec
39:09 · nationalism happened in the 1980s and
39:11 · 1990s though when the province hosted
39:13 · two referendums on their independence
39:15 · from Canada the first one came in 1980
39:18 · which saw a significant 85.6% voter
39:21 · turnout that saw the remain with Canada
39:23 · side win handedly with a total of 59.6%
39:26 · of the vote compared to the leave side
39:29 · that only managed to secure 40.4% of the
39:32 · vote but then 15 years later came
39:34 · Quebec's second and much more
39:36 · controversial and closer Independence
39:38 · referendum in
39:39 · 1995 this time the second Independence
39:42 · referendum became a massive spectacle in
39:44 · Quebec that saw the active participation
39:46 · and input of virtually everybody in the
39:48 · province the second referendum secured
39:50 · what has remained the largest voter
39:52 · turnout in all of Quebec's entire
39:54 · history with a whopping
39:56 · 93.5% % of registered voters in the
39:58 · province taking part in the decision and
40:00 · the final vote was razor thin the remain
40:03 · with Canada side just narrowly won in
40:06 · 1995 with just
40:08 · 50.6% of the total vote compared with
40:11 · 49.4% of Voters who chose to leave and
40:14 · make Quebec an independent country the
40:16 · difference between the remain and leave
40:18 · sides was merely
40:20 · 54,2 188 votes out of a total population
40:23 · of registered voters in Quebec at the
40:25 · time of 5, 87 ,000 meaning that just 1%
40:30 · of the population carried the entire
40:32 · political future of Quebec at the time
40:34 · but ever since the narrow failure of the
40:36 · Quebec nationalist to secure the
40:38 · province's independence in 1995 the
40:40 · support for further separatism in Quebec
40:42 · appears to have gradually dwindled away
40:44 · but has still never completely gone away
40:46 · altogether a recent poll from leir a
40:49 · French language newspaper in Montreal
40:51 · was conducted in 2023 that found that
40:53 · current support for Quebec separatism
40:55 · stands at just 38% of the Vin's
40:57 · population a far cry from the more than
41:00 · 49% who voted for Independence back in
41:03 · 1995 but the data from that poll
41:05 · suggests something even more alarming to
41:07 · the pro-independence side in Quebec most
41:10 · of the support for Quebec separatism
41:11 · remaining comes from older people 55
41:14 · years and over while support for Quebec
41:16 · separatism among the younger Generations
41:17 · in the province is significantly lower
41:20 · this likely means that as the years
41:22 · continue passing on support for kbec
41:24 · separatism while still kind of
41:25 · substantial today will continue
41:27 · dwindling away simply due to the
41:29 · attrition of the older cohort that more
41:31 · strongly supports Independence dying off
41:33 · and the younger Generations replacing
41:35 · them who more strongly oppose
41:37 · Independence and from here on just about
41:40 · every other possible Independence
41:41 · Movement remaining in the world it could
41:43 · happen gets pretty speculative if it
41:45 · hasn't been enough already for example
41:48 · it's possible that an independent
· Kurdistan
41:50 · Kurdish State could one day coales in
41:52 · the center of the Middle East the Kurds
41:54 · are their own ethnic group who number
41:56 · somewhere between 30 and 45 million
41:58 · people in the area and span across the
42:00 · modern borders of turkey Syria Iraq and
42:02 · Iran the governments of which have
42:04 · always been opposed to the emergence of
42:05 · an independent Kurdish State for the
42:07 · simple reason that if the Kurds ever
42:09 · emerged independent in one of them they
42:11 · would likely work together to take over
42:13 · the territory of all the others as well
42:15 · the Kurdish inhabited lands also include
42:17 · the headwaters of the Tigris and
42:19 · Euphrates rivers and Rich oil fields in
42:21 · the lands they inhabit in Iraq which
42:23 · together would almost certainly mean
42:25 · that any unified independent Kurdish
42:27 · state would become a major geopolitical
42:29 · power that everyone else in the region
42:31 · would then have to reckon with as a
42:33 · result the Kurds are generally
42:35 · considered to be among the largest
42:36 · stateless people in the modern 21st
42:38 · century world the Iraqi Kurds have
42:41 · however accomplished their own political
42:43 · autonomy within Iraq ever since 1992
42:46 · after the US began enforcing a no-fly
42:48 · zone over their territory that allowed
42:49 · them to achieve the leverage they needed
42:51 · against the Iraqi central government in
42:52 · Baghdad to secure it which established
42:55 · the autonomous Kurdistan Regional
42:56 · government krg in Northern Iraq much
42:59 · later on in 2017 the krg decided to host
43:02 · a unilateral referendum on their
43:04 · independence from Iraq that much like
43:06 · the unilateral Catalonia Independence
43:08 · referendum was deemed illegal by the
43:10 · Iraqi central government in Baghdad
43:12 · nonetheless the krg went ahead with the
43:14 · 2017 Independence referendum anyway that
43:17 · saw a pretty large 72.2% voter turnout
43:20 · that resulted in a completely
43:22 · overwhelming vote of
43:24 · 92.7% in favor of the krg's independent
43:27 · dependence up against only 7.3% of
43:29 · Voters who chose to remain with Iraq
43:32 · however the Iraqi government refused to
43:33 · recognize the results of the referendum
43:35 · declared it illegal and then launched a
43:37 · full-blown military offensive into the
43:39 · kg's territory in retaliation the Iraqi
43:42 · Army then overran roughly 20% of the
43:44 · krg's administered territory and killed
43:46 · hundreds of people in the process which
43:48 · forced the krg into conceding and
43:51 · cancelling the results of the referendum
43:53 · at the same time the Syrian Kurds have
43:55 · also achieved their own deao om through
43:57 · Force since the Syrian Civil War began
43:59 · next door but unlike the Iraqi herds
44:02 · they have always stopped just short of
44:04 · asserting their own independence from
44:06 · Syria officially only claiming their own
44:08 · autonomous status within Syria which the
44:11 · Assad regime in Syria still doesn't even
44:13 · recognize as legitimate if the Syrian
44:15 · Kurds ever took things a step further
44:16 · and declared their own independence like
44:18 · the Iraqi Kurds attempted to do in 2017
44:21 · or which Turkish kurd separatist
44:23 · factions like the pkk have been
44:24 · attempting to also do for decades then
44:27 · then it would almost certainly trigger
44:28 · at least an immediate Turkish Invasion
44:31 · or intervention to stop them from doing
44:33 · so since turkey would then fear that if
44:35 · they succeeded they would use their own
44:37 · independence to ferment unrest in the
44:39 · Kurdish inhabited area of Southeastern
44:41 · turkey and so since the Turkish Syrian
44:43 · and Iraqi governments would and have
44:45 · opposed any and all moves towards formal
44:48 · Kurdish Independence it's a development
44:50 · that's not exceptionally likely to
44:52 · happen anytime soon and similar to the
44:55 · Kurds there's also the potential no
44:57 · matter how slim for an independent state
44:59 · for the targ people in Northern Africa
45:01 · to eventually emerge through Force as
45:03 · well the tar eggs are a large nomadic
45:05 · Berber ethnic group numbering around 4
45:07 · million people whose territory spans
45:09 · across the modern borders of Mali ner
45:11 · Libya and Algeria since 1916 there have
45:14 · been at least five major targ rebellions
45:16 · in this area demanding the creation of
45:18 · their own independent state and the most
45:20 · successful of all of them was the most
45:22 · recent one that happened in 2012 back
45:25 · then tarag Rebels managed to overrun the
45:27 · entirety of Northern Mali including
45:28 · mali's most populated Northern cities
45:31 · timbuk 2 and GA the tarag rebels then
45:33 · seize the moment to unilaterally declare
· Azawad
45:35 · the independence of a state that they
45:37 · called azawad in April of 2012 a state
45:40 · that they envisioned as becoming the
45:41 · Homeland for the targ people that
45:43 · Encompass roughly 60% of mali's
45:45 · internationally recognized territory but
45:48 · then shortly afterwards islamist
45:49 · factions within azawad including
45:51 · Al-Qaeda effectively co-opted the
45:53 · movement for themselves and then decided
45:54 · to expand their Ambitions by launching
45:57 · Invasion into the rest of Mali to try
45:58 · and take over the entire country which
46:01 · then prompted a huge French military
46:03 · intervention against them that rapidly
46:05 · saw French forces recapture all of
46:07 · mali's territory and Destroy azawad
46:09 · about as soon as it appeared without any
46:11 · other country ever offering aaad any
46:13 · form of diplomatic recognition then in
46:16 · February of 2013 with all of its
46:17 · territory lost the targs formally
46:20 · renounced their prior claim of
46:21 · Independence for azawad and asked Molly
46:23 · to begin reincorporating them back into
46:25 · the country but in recent years the
46:27 · azawad movement has witnessed a bit of a
46:29 · comeback again Molly experienced
46:31 · back-to-back cou d'as in 2020 and 2021
46:34 · that brought a new anti-french military
46:36 · hun into power in the country that
46:37 · decided to expel all French troops from
46:39 · the country by 2022 and they began
46:42 · welcoming in Russian troops from the
46:43 · Vagner group to assist them against
46:45 · rebels in the country instead in the
46:47 · ensuing chaos that followed the azawad
46:50 · movement has regain significant momentum
46:52 · and ground and currently as of 2024 it
46:55 · controls a large swath of mol's North
46:57 · once again if they're able to expand on
47:00 · their success and take back control over
47:01 · major towns in the area like timbuk 2
47:03 · and GA again it could only be a matter
47:06 · of time before azawad unilaterally
47:08 · redeclared their own independence in
47:10 · Northern Mali again and the question
47:12 · this time will be if anybody intervenes
47:14 · to stop them again or if anybody will
47:17 · decide to just simply recognize them
47:18 · this time meanwhile in Cameroon Down in
47:21 · subsaharan Africa there are the
47:23 · potential conditions emerging for yet
47:24 · another possible new candidate country
47:26 · toer in the near future as well this
47:29 · time in the form of a potential new
47:30 · country known as ambz Amazonia in
47:32 · cameroon's extreme West the issue here
47:35 · dates back to the Colonial period where
47:36 · for decades between 1916 and 1961 modern
47:40 · day Cameroon was divided between a
47:41 · larger French colony in the East and a
47:43 · smaller British colony in the west who
47:45 · directly influen the pattern of
47:47 · cameroon's two dominant languages today
47:50 · French and English French has naturally
47:52 · remained the dominant language spoken in
47:53 · the bigger part of Cameroon that used to
47:55 · be a French colony and 41% of the
47:57 · country's total population currently
47:59 · speaks French meanwhile English has
48:02 · remained the dominant spoken language in
· Ambazonia
48:03 · the smaller part of Cameroon that used
48:04 · to be a British colony and so about 16%
48:07 · of cameroon's overall population speaks
48:09 · English this has led to a long-standing
48:11 · issue within Cameroon ever since the
48:13 · country's Independence that's known as
48:15 · the anglophone problem where the
48:17 · english- speaking minority in Far
48:18 · Western Cameroon has often felt
48:20 · disenfranchised and locked out by
48:22 · certain policies and actions enacted by
48:24 · the majority french-speaking cameroonian
48:26 · government in 2016 widescale protest in
48:29 · the smaller anglophone part of Cameroon
48:31 · broke out that the mostly
48:32 · french-speaking cameroonian government
48:34 · decided to violently crack down on which
48:36 · led the angones in Western Cameroon
48:38 · deciding to launch a separatist
48:40 · Insurgency which eventually led to a
48:42 · group of angones to unilaterally declare
48:44 · the independence of the western angone
48:46 · region of Cameroon as the independent
48:48 · state of ambazonia this led the
48:50 · cameroonian government to openly declare
48:52 · war on the ambazonian separatists and
48:55 · the cameroonian Army was ordered in to
48:56 · restore the government's Authority which
48:58 · sparked the cameroonian Civil War or the
49:00 · anglophone crisis in the country that
49:02 · has continued on ever since thousands of
49:05 · people have been killed by the conflict
49:06 · since then and hundreds of thousands
49:08 · more have been forcefully displaced and
49:11 · as it currently stands the cameronian
49:13 · government controls most of the large
49:14 · cities and population centers in the
49:15 · angone region while the ambazonian
49:18 · separatists still control large swaths
49:20 · of the area's rural Countryside if they
49:22 · are eventually successful in their
49:23 · Rebellion then the ambazonian
49:25 · separatists will almost certainly
49:26 · attempt to gain formal recognition of
49:28 · their independence as Africa's newest
49:30 · State like South Sudan and Eritrea
49:33 · became before them through fours but
49:35 · they still might not become the world's
· South Yemen
49:37 · newest country that emerges through
49:38 · Force of Arms in Yemen the long Civil
49:41 · War in the country is reaching its
49:43 · 10-year anniversary of beginning with no
49:45 · immediate end still in sight but as it
49:48 · currently stands now as it has for many
49:50 · years there were three major factions in
49:52 · the war that could eventually negotiate
49:54 · for peace the iran-backed houthi and the
49:56 · Saudi backed Republic of Yemen are
49:58 · decidedly not separatist entities they
50:01 · both want full political control over
50:03 · the entirety of Yemen's internationally
50:04 · recognized territory and they both
50:07 · officially claim to be all of Yemen's
50:09 · rightful and legitimate government
50:10 · meanwhile the third major faction in the
50:13 · war the UAE backed Southern transitional
50:15 · council is explicitly a secessionist
50:17 · faction that seeks for the
50:19 · reestablishment and Independence of the
50:20 · former South Yemen again just like it
50:22 · used to exist for decades in the 20th
50:24 · century between 1967 and 1990 before it
50:28 · was absorbed into the former North Yemen
50:30 · that created the unified Yemen that
50:31 · existed up until the Civil War began in
50:33 · 2014 if the southern transitional
50:36 · council is successful in its desires and
50:37 · negotiations whenever a formal peace
50:39 · settlement is made in Yemen then it's
50:42 · very possible we could end up seeing the
50:44 · geopolitical return of South Yemen to
50:46 · the World's Maps again and a return back
50:48 · to the era of a politically divided
50:50 · Yemen which is more of the historical
50:52 · reversion to the mean in the area when
50:54 · you consider that Yemen has been
50:55 · politically divided between between a
50:56 · north and a South for centuries and its
50:59 · recent Union between 1990 and 2014 was a
51:02 · pretty major aberration in this
51:04 · otherwise long history of divided
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