I’m genuinely confused about the recession. I do not think things are going well. Jobs aren’t good, housing isn’t good, prices went way up and aren’t coming down. I don’t think wages are trending up. Sure, the stock market is up, but that doesn’t mean the broad economy is good. And the numbers from the UIS government, in my opinion, are probably faked and say something better than what is actually true.
And yet it seems broadly accepted that we are not in a recession now and may not go into a recession. But the UK is, Germany is, Japan is, many countries are in a recession right now. But not the US. Because we spend $1T that we don’t have every 100 days or so, and therefore we are recession-proof.
Seems hinky to me.
IMHO, part of the confusion is the fact of the technical definition of a recession: two consecutive quarters of decline GDP. Then you get into how GDP is calculated, and that's how we often avoid a technical recession while real Americans are in one.
GDP is the total spending by consumers, businesses, and government. Traditionally, about 1/3rd of the GDP is government spending, but that increases a lot to "help" us when real recessions begin. That makes GDP go up (as far as how it's calculated goes).
IMHO, basing GDP in part from government spending would be like if I was still married to my ex-wife and tried to tell you, "Our household finances are great! Look at how much debt she keeps adding to our credit cards!".
We are in the undeclared recession. An hour after Donald J. Trump raises his hand next January to take office again they will be screaming about Trump’s recession.
As for the true unemployment numbers, they’re ignoring the lowering of time to declare someone out of the job market and the U6 numbers and the unemployed illegals. It’s sickening. They’re playing with numbers but we’re suffering hourly.