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To: ClearCase_guy
And yet it seems broadly accepted that we are not in a recession now and may not go into a recession.

IMHO, part of the confusion is the fact of the technical definition of a recession: two consecutive quarters of decline GDP. Then you get into how GDP is calculated, and that's how we often avoid a technical recession while real Americans are in one.

GDP is the total spending by consumers, businesses, and government. Traditionally, about 1/3rd of the GDP is government spending, but that increases a lot to "help" us when real recessions begin. That makes GDP go up (as far as how it's calculated goes).

IMHO, basing GDP in part from government spending would be like if I was still married to my ex-wife and tried to tell you, "Our household finances are great! Look at how much debt she keeps adding to our credit cards!".

12 posted on 03/11/2024 9:16:43 AM PDT by Tell It Right (1st Thessalonians 5:21 -- Put everything to the test, hold fast to that which is true.)
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To: Tell It Right

Yes.

The inflation numbers look good — if we keep things like food and energy out of the equation.
And Recessions are unlikely — if we calculate massive deficit spending as a type of “growth”.

Similarly, some Democrat cities are cutting way back on crime fighting. Fewer arrests means that the official crime rate has to go down, indicating that letting criminals run wild is the key to success.


14 posted on 03/11/2024 9:21:21 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (It's not "Quiet Quitting" -- it's "Going Galt".)
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To: Tell It Right

IMHO, basing GDP in part from government spending would be like if I was still married to my ex-wife and tried to tell you, “Our household finances are great! Look at how much debt she keeps adding to our credit cards!”.


Very much so.

During the Obama years there were multiple years where the GDP growth was less than the created money by several times.


20 posted on 03/11/2024 6:12:16 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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