Posted on 12/29/2023 6:01:39 AM PST by MtnClimber
Hamas’ surprise terrorist attack against Israel on October 7, and the subsequent fighting in Gaza has again plunged the Middle East into a situation bordering on apocalyptic. The horrors of the attack are compounded by the shock that Israel’s vaunted intelligence services were seemingly caught unawares after decades of exceptional performance. Recently, a rather damning report claims that Israeli intelligence intercepted Hamas’ attack plan but that the plan was considered “aspirational” and incapable of being implemented.
How could this happen?
The truth will probably not be fully known until an impartial and dispassionate investigation can be conducted, similar to the Agranat Commission that reviewed Israeli intelligence and defense shortcomings prior to the October War of 1973. When an investigation of the Hamas surprise attack is completed, it will likely provide not lessons learned but lessons relearned regarding not only intelligence collection and analysis, but also military and political judgements. These judgements will likely have been clouded by four attributes of human nature that are a common factor in surprise attacks. If the four horsemen of the Apocalypse are Death, Famine, War, and Pestilence, then the four horsemen of surprise attack are Ambiguity, Misperception, Deception, and Preconception.
Ambiguity, information open to more than one interpretation, is the constant companion of intelligence work. Rarely, if ever, do sources provide a clear view of enemy capabilities, plans, and intentions. Instead, they offer partial views, and sometimes even erroneous ones, either on purpose or by human error. Studies of past surprise attacks show that victims often had indications of the attack (signals) but were unable to recognize them because of the ambiguous nature of the reporting, as well as the plethora of competing and contradictory reports (noise). In November 1941, most in Washington and Hawaii assumed that war with Japan was coming....
(Excerpt) Read more at realcleardefense.com ...
I know many think Israel’s government allowed the attacks to occur. I have not seen evidence of that. But it sure seems like they were caught unprepared.
They were distracted with internal politics. Bibi was the “bad guy” much like Trump in the U.S. Bibi tried to reform the Judical System in Israel.
The Battle of the Bulge resulted.
In order to kill Hamas and end the threat forever, the October 7 attack had to be permitteed
It was
I’m sure that many people saw it coming and reported what they saw. How can you train scores of tangos to operate powered hang gliders with no one reporting it?
But as the reports “trickled up” from the field to the comfortable offices, they lost momentum and bureaucrats just put the reports in a file for later reference. The actual became the hypothetical and the hypothetical became the unlikely. And the unlikely became the ignored. Like “conspiracy theories.”
But I remember the female FBI agent who, in year 1999 or 2000 in Arizona, reported Arab men learning to fly planes but not to land them. She got sanctioned and transferred to the Chicago office. At the same time, Clinton’s FBI had distributed flyers warning about “right wing terrorists” overly concerned with Constitutional Rights.
Unfortunately, fools abound in 21st century America.
https://thereload.com/israeli-loosens-gun-carry-rules-after-unprecedented-terror-attack/
How could this happen? Only one of two ways. And let us use Pearl Harbor as an example. Either it was a surprise attack or...it was known to be coming by those in power...who decided to say nothing. In both cases, neither can be proven. So, for the sake of civility and decorum, it gets labeled as a “surprise” attack.
.
Couple hundred thousand young military age and fit men, walking through our border,and we give them rides all over thr US. Is this ignorance or willful? At the street level,what is going on and who needs a slap?
The clear-thinking, truth-seeking, intelligent and benevolent people of America are going to need great courage in the future.
Pray that we will be blessed. We're going to need blessings and God's guidance.
America has never been in greater danger.
My assessment is that it is willful.
The powers-that-be know full well that these young men will provide a ready supply of recruits for the army and police forces when they are offered such positions as a "path to citizenship". And they will not hesitate to fire on real American citizens when they are ordered to do so. That is the reason for this "investment" in illegal migrants.
The rulers intend to remain in power for the rest of their lives. That requires destruction of potential competitors and replacements from a middle class. This is the endgame for our ruling elites. The know that they will eventually require unrestrained force to subjugate the population.
The only problem with the clever plan is that criminal organizations can make the young men a much better offer than the army or the police.
The "elites" will find themselves being replaced by new criminal overlords who won't confine their predation to "approved" victims. The betrayals should be epic.
Bet it wasn’t a surprise to Israel’s Deep State...
Assuming that they (these military age illegal aliens) have no prior allegiance or plan.
The solution is to multiply every intelligence agency in the world’s budget by one hundred.
Lol.
We still debate Pearl Harbor around here.
Most folks think FDR knew in advance but I am in the minority who thinks that Churchill knew and did not share it with FDR.
Good luck sorting out the facts in these situations.
MtnClimber :" If the four horsemen of the Apocalypse are Death, Famine, War, and Pestilence,
then the four horsemen of surprise attack are Ambiguity, Misperception, Deception, and Preconception. "
tik : Well worth remembering !
Liberty Ship : “ But as the reports “trickled up” from the field to the comfortable offices,
they lost momentum and bureaucrats just put the reports in a file for later reference.
The actual became the hypothetical and the hypothetical became the unlikely.
And the unlikely became the ignored.
Like “conspiracy theories.”
But I remember the female FBI agent who, in year 1999 or 2000 in Arizona, reported Arab men learning to fly planes but not to land them...”
Savage Beast :" Anyone who thinks that America's enemies are not planning an attack on the USA is a fool.
Unfortunately, fools abound in 21st century America.
(My Opinion) : All of it is truth told !
Keep your eyes and ears open, and your head on a swivel
Overcome normalcy and complacency... Trust your gut !
Know the OODA Loop, .. and practice it.
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