The prophets of Baal cutting themselves to make their predictions come true.
Posted on 11/13/2023 2:00:09 PM PST by MtnClimber
No this is not satire, the propaganda machine is just growing increasingly stupid.
In May, the “experts” at NOAA predicted the likeliest scenario for the upcoming hurricane season would be a “near-normal” one:
NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
‘With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more crucial,’ said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D.
So essentially, these brilliant scientists are predicting that during “hurricane season” there are likely going to be hurricanes, in some capacity. Does it take experts to predict that? Furthermore, near-normal is also indicative of a manmade climate change?
Why don’t they always predict a severe season if humans, CO2, and our use of natural resources are a compounding and existential threat to the earth?
By August, they upped their predictions because of warm weather:
NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May’s outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season.
Somehow, those dire forecasts didn’t come true even though they made them in the middle of the hurricane season.
A whopping three hurricanes hit land in the U.S. I thought the warm water and weather was going to lead to a disastrous year? The forecasters blamed “tricky” weather conditions that made storms hard to predict this year...
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
I remember after Katrina that this was the first of the mega hurricanes that would strike the continental United States.
They said hurricanes may not necessarily be more numerous, but they would definitely be much more powerful.
The prophets of Baal cutting themselves to make their predictions come true.
Otis (Acapulco) does not factor into discussion as it was an east Pacific ‘cane not an Atlantic ‘cane. Discussion is about predictions in N Atlantic basin.
Fact is, more storms but fewer ‘canes, count is 20/7/3 for named storms, ‘canes, and major canes. Normal is about 18/9/3 in recent decades. So it was a bit of a toss up as to forecasts being improved or made worse mid-season.
One more named storm is probably going to occur, so final count of 21/7/3 or 21/8/3 if it gets to be a ‘cane.
Overall, an unimpressive N Atl season, despite a large count, many of named storms were never close to land, in particular, U.S. landfalls.
Lots of what were once called “fish storms”
Storms that were outside the normal shipping lanes and never hit landfall.
0-10 day Weather forecasts seem to be totally independent from Seasonal forecasts and independent from 30-100 yr Climate forecasts.
It’s a mess.
That was a bold prediction!
30-40-30 is a standard uncertainty spread in decision analysis that accentuates the tails. The 10-50-90 distribution that accentuates the mean uses 25-50-25 probabilities.
-PJ
The weather changes. Who knew?
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