I am getting this one out before the "night shift".
The Fall | The Russians Pummel Every Airfield In Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.10.16
"Hello my dear friends you're in the military of summary Channel and today we will discuss the situation in Ukraine on the 16th of October of 2023. Today we have a lot of very interesting updates so let's start." "First we're going to start with Avdiivka area and we can say that at least the some phase or the first phase or has ended when talking about the Battle for this fortification. uh probably the Russians managed to achieve something, probably the Ukrainians lost something, but it's very difficult to understand what were the real purpose of the Russia attack in this area, what the Russians are planning to get, what the Russians manage to get and of course to understand this."
"And of course to understand this for example we got very interesting update from the Ukrainian sources and the ukrainians are saying that Mi intelligence MI6 the United Kingdom intelligence provided new data for to the president Zelensky and they're saying that the Russians are planning to change the tactic about Avdiivka. The things that we saw uh from 14th of October till uh 16th of October till today were something like um reconnaissance in force or reconnaissance in combat when the Russians were trying to understand whether it's even possible to start any offensive operation..."
Compared this to the previous days:
Oct 13:
The Fall | The Noose Is Tightening | Ukrainian Forces Are Cut Off. Military Summary For 2023.10.13 The pre-fight press sounds pretty bad for Ukraine.
Oct 14:
The Fighting Near Avdiivka Does Not Stop Even For A Second. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.10.14 Sounds like major offensive.
Oct 15:
Oct 15: The Russians Achieved Success At Avdiivka, Synkivka, Verbove, Pryiutne. Military Summary 2023.10.15 That sounds like confirmation Russia had major victories and is on a roll.
Oct 16:
The Russians Are Looking For Weak Points In The Defense Of The AFU. Military Summary For 2023.10.16 Huh? Wait a minute. Russia is looking for weak points in where Russia already broke through? How does Military Summary go from "it looks bad for Ukraine", to "this is a decisive attack", to "Russia is getting decisive victories" to "we don't know what's happening, but is the fault of the US and British that it happened?"
This is typical Russian information warfare tactics. As soon as Russian forces get out of the trench, flood social media with stories of overwhelming victory. These get picked up and spread by friendly social media and news channels (like the Hindustan Times).
When the truth gets out in the Western press, that Russia lost at the minimum, three Battalion Tactical Groups worth of combat vehicles, Russian Shill Inc (TM) gives its automatic response. It wasn't a major attack, it was a reconnaissance or probing, we don't know for sure, but whatever is happening the RU General staff is on in and it is definitely someone else's fault. At all times, flood social media and get in the last word.
The only people still buying into this are those who use Ukraine as a substitute for their own politics or the Russian web brigades and ольгинские тролли who are paid for it.
LOL so doomed, that they met every objective they set out with...courtesy of @ArmchairW on X:
It's D+5: Russian troops have consolidated positions on the flanks of Avdeevka in the face of AFU counterattacks and resumed attacks. It's likely at at this point we've seen the completion of Phases I (attack to isolate) and II (defeat counterattack) of the Russian battle plan.
Allow me to explain what's going on in the battle with the help of something that most mappers don't use - an elevation map. This allows us to see what the intervisibility lines are around Avdeevka - essentially the ridgelines beyond which you can see into the terrain beyond. Control of intervisibility lines allows observation and direct fire beyond them, and allows friendly forces to take cover behind them.
I've marked what are currently Russian-held positions and key IV lines in red and Ukrainian ones in blue, with Russian tactical positions in gray. Before the Russian attack went in last week, the IV lines at what are currently the Russian tactical positions were all Ukrainian-held, the Russian position in Krasnogorovka north of Avdeevka (immediately east of the marked Security Position) was probably far more tenuous than was generally believed, and Avdeevka was so secure the AFU could still supply it by rail.
Fast forward to today and reports are coming in that Avdeevka has been isolated, with the one remaining supply road - marked AFU MSR - too dangerous to use thanks to effective Russian fire. So what happened?
Well, on October 10th the Russian "114th Brigade" launched a battalion attack out of Krasnogorovka to seize SBF 1 ("support by fire") and the Security Position - this dramatic armored attack was completely successful and took both areas in a matter of hours, with Russian forces rapidly getting into direct-fire engagements with Ukrainian troops in the northern village belt and the industrial zone. This led to panic reports that those areas in turn were being stormed despite there being little evidence of Russian troops operating west of the railroad in that area. The 114th was after the high ground, not the villages. The seizure of these positions allowed Russian armor and AT teams to dominate the north half of the Western Village Belt, fire on the MSR, and begin softening up the usual AFU stronghold in the industrial zone.
Meanwhile, different Russian battalions attacked to seize SBF 2 in the south and the Assault Position - something that took longer due, I believe, to the need to clear minefields and the dense entrenchments immediately south of Avdeevka. Russian troops appear to have consolidated on SBF 2 yesterday, allowing them to dominate the south half of the village belt with fire and engage the MSR from the south as well. At that time a flurry of reports came out that the city had been cut off.
Immediate Ukrainian counterattacks appear to have done little beyond push Russian troops off the exposed face of the slag heap on the south side of SBF 1. Russian troops in turn have begun expanding their foothold around the slag heap in the last couple days.
So, right now the Russians are in a position around Avdeevka where they can move troops into combat via covered routes, and have essentially no positions that are "hanging" and exposed to enemy direct fire, while Ukrainian supplies and reinforcements will need to run a gauntlet of direct fire to get in and their entire defensive belt west of town is in full view of Russian armor.
* Just as a note, the distance between both SBF 1 and SBF 2 and the MSR is about four kilometers - a long but quite reasonable distance to engage for tank guns and antitank missiles, particularly against soft targets that can be destroyed with HE shells.
I suspect that Russian forces will now fight south to north from the Assault Position to secure the Residential Zone before making another rural push to collapse the village belt - which will necessarily see the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the fortified Industrial Zone. They may also attack the AFU-held "Redoubt" east of town to bolster their general position in the north, which is somewhat interdicted by this Ukrainian-held hill.
Their pace of progress really depends on the forces they're willing to commit - thus far only a single brigade's worth of troops appears to have actually gone into action. Contra to Ukrainian propaganda, losses have been modest compared to the results achieved - trading one or two companies to isolate an enemy brigade battle position is an excellent showing, and Russian industry stamps out enough equipment for a motor rifle regiment every week regardless.