[LonePalm]

A "Broken China" Update.

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Item One:
I'm leading off with the least important item. The PLAAF is converting some of its retired Shanyang J-6 and Chengdu J-7 fighters into drones at their Lianchen and Yantan-li bases. The J-6 (NATO reporting name: Farmer) is the license-built Chinese version of the Soviet Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-19 (NATO reporting name: Farmer). The J-7 (NATO reporting name: Fishcan) is the Chinese version of the Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21 (NATO reporting name: Fishbed).

While fast and fairly maneuverable, I would not expect them to last very long against human pilots. They are most likely high speed missile carriers or kamikaze bomb carriers. I would not get too excited about this. It remains to be seen just how well these "Grandpa planes" can maneuver without a pilot onboard. Likewise these planes required a lot of maintenance when they were active. Now they are going to be a bear to maintain and keep flying.

Item Two:
"China's Construction Iron Army" has been almost wiped out. Steel rebar and cement are in such high supply that it is starting to drive down the prices in overseas markets. In 2022, the PRC accounted for 51.5% of the world's 4.1B tonnes of Portland cement. In 2021 China's share was 55.9% of world production. Historically, China has consumed 90+% of cement production. With reduced demand in both China and the US, the world price continues to slide. Prices are sliding because construction demand has cratered. This is having a knock-on effect of reduced construction employment.

Chinese companies producing construction steel follows much the same trend. 580+ Iron companies providing construction, mostly threaded steel for rebar, have filed for bankruptcy. When the US gets the construction sniffles, the economy gets a cold. When the PRC gets the construction sniffles, the economy gets pneumonia and goes on life support.

The reduced demand has caused the increased dumping of steel on the world market, often at below cost, with the worst effect being felt in SE Asia. Steel there is down to $88 per tonne with some sales at $70 per tonne recorded.

Item Three:
In a related note, official inflation in the PRC was posted at 0% in September year-on-year. The CPI was at zero in June as well. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is at -2.5% YOY in September. Weakness in multiple components indicate that the PRC economy is teetering on significant deflation. If you think inflation is bad, you really don't want to see deflation.

An aggregating factor is that the high debt at all levels of the CCP government restricts the amount government entities can borrowed. So, the CCP has started printing money. The balance of broad money (M2) stood at 289.6T yuan at the end of September, a YOY increase of 10.3%. CCP attempts to increase consumer spending have failed utterly.

Item Four:
When the city administrators in Changchun, about 530 miles NE of Beijing, announced a month long effort to 'improve' traffic enforcement, the citizens of Changchun have started a 'Great Escape' by leaving Changchun. The administrators meant by improved enforcement that they would be writing as many traffic tickets as possible. They are trying to increase municipal revenue. This has caused massive traffic snarls around the clock.

The traffic police are doing things like painting over white traffic spot lines over night so they can issue a parking fine. They have also taken to removing parking spots. With fewer parking spots and the same number of cars, voila, more revenue generating tickets.

Item Five:
Chinese citizens working in Israel have refused to leave. The comment of one person was, "Yes the rockets are dangerous but at least here there is no scrambling for food."

WWG1WGA

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

[reed13k]

On the steel front add on that the EU in early Oct added sanctions for Russian steel/iron imports that require specific country of origin requirements from the mills to certify sources...the Chinese will be hard pressed to supply this documentation.

Heck, as US suppliers of final product to the EU; we are scrambling to provide the documentation. Normally such a reg, example being the conflict mineral requirements, only requires no knowledge and not objective prove from the mills. But the wording of the new EU reg will require a tracking of specific metal mill run sources and not just a declaration. Mutiple industries are scrambling right now.

[OldWarBaby]

Item two: So maybe if the chicoms can hang on for awhile they might get the call for steel and cement from the Gazas who will need a bunch of the stuff if they get to rebuild——which doesn’t seem likely anyway. It’s tough being a degenerate, corrupt, sort of country.

[Pete from Shawnee Mission]

Unless you are going to recycle their steel , especially the rebar, it is not a wise thing to purchase Chinese Steel. At 2.50 a worker bends rebar into a bracelet.

5 min of Tofu Dreg

To get a good feel for Tofu Dreg (Mentioned in one of your previous posts!) it is worth watching all 5 minutes and you will appreciate U.S. Building codes and construction practices.

(Anyone thinking of it, sounds like it might be a good time to buy that steel building!)

[Disestablishmentarian]

When the US gets the construction sniffles, the economy gets a cold. When the PRC gets the construction sniffles, the economy gets pneumonia and goes on life support.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This seems to encapsulate the whole problem China is facing.

The massive internal spending was counted on to generate consumers who would eventually buy domestically manufactured products, a state-controlled version of Henry Ford's great insight in creating workers who could afford the cars the built.

The plan has apparently failed.

Maybe it's the commie system, which the population realizes can never be trusted. Maybe it's the fact that so much of the country has been bypassed in terms of the relatively well-paid jobs. Maybe it's just that Chinese, unlike Japanese, do not easily convert into ideal consumers.

Sometimes plans fail, such as the U.S. plan to force democracy upon Iraq. But it seems like the whole Chinese plan, of the last 30 years at least, has failed...leaving them in deep caca.