A missing detail is that manufacturing backlogs are very low. There is little work to do and little product to produce. The stores are ramping up for holiday sales, but may be disappointed at availability of product to sell. When that craters, the temporary holiday help will be terminated. Even manufacturers blessed with good backlogs are stifled by supply chain problems to execute on the backlogs.
There is concern that oil will rise to $150/barrel and drive diesel fuel north of $7/gallon. It will be uneconomical to run the big rigs. That will bring empty shelves.