Russian Defence Production 2023

The war in Ukraine is one of relentless attrition. While territory usually only changes hands extremely slowly, munitions and equipment and destroyed and consumed at prodigious rates in a fires-dominated slugging match.

In that kind of struggle, the endurance of a military may owe a lot to the pipeline of replacement equipment that supports it.

For Ukraine, that largely means looking into the details of foreign equipment provision and some Ukrainian domestic production.

But for Russia, without as many allies to call on, one of the key factors is probably defence industrial output, a topic which is widely contested in news and propaganda. According to some sources, Russia produces enough equipment to overpower all of NATO alone, acording to those on the other extreme, it produces little of value or quality.

In this episode, I try to dive into Russian data as well as battlefield loss observations to try and get an understanding of where the truth lies. Trying to understand how much equipment Russia may be producing, and what that means for its ability to sustain a long, hard-fought war.

I saw some of the video, but is a puff piece for Ukrainian hope.

The NYT say Russia produces 200 new tanks a year... Russia is retrofitting 750 tanks a month, and building 250 new tanks a month. Currently product 3M artillery rounds a year and will product 1/2M monthly in a few months; 20M also coming from N.Korea is quite possible. Russia claims they are producing 1000 missiles a month, while using fewer than 200 right now. Russia will go over from Defense, and having improved their troop strength from 160K to 390K, with 200K coming in a few weeks, and 300k more in December, with plans for 1.5M and then 2.1M by 2026.

Meanwhile Blinken talks about freezing the conflict so his boss can PIVOT to China. Our Country is run by elites who care nothing about the people but think America is their play toy to jump from Afghanistan to Ukraine to China....

They are totally missing the point. There are some T14s, and the new ones being built are the T90s. Did you notice both the T14s and T90s are missing from this data. These new tanks are almost exclusively being provided to the new units that have been formed since August. I believe we will see T90s with the next two groups of 200,000 (any day now) and 300,000 (December timeframe). T80s are retrofited units.

They are also taking older tanks and turning them into a dual use tank/artillery gun for mech infantry. Russian infantry are getting these retrofitted T62/72 series dual use vehicles in the new Corps formations.

Between now and the end of the year, 500,000 Russian soldiers will join the lines. The guys that have been holding the lines will probably sit tight while the 120,000 from August deployment and the incoming 1/2 million will push Ukrainian forces out of Russian claimed areas. I believe Russia will take both Odessa and the second largest city in Ukraine up near Belarus in the next push. Then I am gonna make a SWAG (seriously wild assed guess) that they will push their numbers in Ukraine to 1.1 million and just push-n-bleed Ukraine to the Polish and Romanian boarders.

Russia has produced about 2K of the T90s. They have another 10,000 tanks they can retrofit.

All Biden can do is destroy some ports and airfields, while Ukraine becomes newly liberated territory for Poland and Russia. There are rumors that Russia will turn the proUkrainian areas over to them to govern while they take the other 75-80%.

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