Posted on 08/29/2023 10:54:31 AM PDT by Red Badger
Visible satellite view on Hurricane Idalia intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico on Aug. 29. Image: CIRA/RAMMB
Hurricane Idalia is rapidly intensifying Tuesday as it moves over record-warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.
Threat level: The storm will bring "catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation" into Florida's Big Bend, with a "life threatening" surge southward to Tampa Bay, the National Hurricane Center warns.
Idalia was expected to strike Florida's Gulf coast on Wednesday as an "extremely dangerous" major Category 3 storm.
According to the NWS forecast office in Tallahassee, no storm since reliable records began in 1851 has tracked right into Apalachee Bay, as Idalia is forecast to do.
The shape of this region's coastline and shallow continental shelf offshore makes it a storm surge magnifier, with the NWS warning of "potentially devastating" storm surge impacts.
"There are NO major hurricanes in the historical dataset going back to 1851 that have tracked into Apalachee Bay. None," the NWS Tallahassee office wrote in a forecast discussion. "Don`t mess around with this."
State of play: At 11am ET, the hurricane was located about 275 miles south-southwest of Tampa, Fla., with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. It was moving north at 14 mph.
Driving the news: Hurricane forecasters are forecasting the storm to leap from a Category 1 storm to Category 3 between Tuesday and Wednesday morning, with landfall expected during the day on Wednesday.
President Biden approved the state's emergency request and pledged federal disaster relief assistance during a phone call with Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday.
Tampa International Airport is closed Tuesday in advance of the storm. Tampa-area counties began carrying out evacuations on Monday.
Zoom in: Idalia is expected to make landfall somewhere between Tampa and Tallahassee on Wednesday, but high winds and storm surge flooding are likely to begin in these areas as early as Tuesday evening.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the Gulf coast of Florida, from just north of Sarasota northward into the Florida Panhandle. This includes Tampa Bay.
A storm surge warning has also been issued from north of Point Charlotte to Indian Pass, Fla., including Tampa Bay.
Tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued for the Atlantic coast of Florida north to South Carolina.
The peak surge forecast for Florida's Big Bend region calls for waters to potentially reach 10 to 15 feet above normally dry ground at high tide.
"Regardless of the cyclone's landfall intensity, there is increasing confidence of a significant storm surge event," NHC forecasters warned in an online forecast discussion. Map showing the peak storm surge forecast from Hurricane Idalia, showing the maximum surge in Florida's Big Bend region.
Peak storm surge forecast as of 11am ET on Aug. 29. Image: NOAA/NHC Between the lines: Tampa is located in a forecast zone projected to see 4 to 7 feet of storm surge flooding, though small changes in the storm's track and intensity could bring a higher surge into Tampa Bay.
If the storm hits at high tide, even the currently forecast surge could yield a record-high water level in Tampa Bay, especially because of astronomical high tides on Wednesday as well.
Heavy rainfall is also a threat from this storm, with amounts in Florida, Georgia and eventually the Carolinas reaching as high as 1 foot.
Forecasters are emphasizing that the forecast "cone of uncertainty" does not depict the full geographic scope of storm impacts, but rather only the probability of where the storm center may travel.
Of note: During the past few years, Florida has been hit with multiple storms along its Gulf coast that have intensified at rapid rates up through landfall, a process linked in part to climate change.
Sea surface temperatures along Idalia's forecast track currently average close to 90°F. These warm waters extend well beneath the ocean surface, providing a deep reservoir of heat for the storm to tap into. Go deeper:
Remember when we used to have storms? Not everything was “catastrophic” or worst in recorded history? Man I tell you, these people ow couldn’t handle the cold weather we had back in the 70’s. Worst weather ever cries the media idiots. Oh bs it’s just weather.
With high tide at 3:00+am, and tides already higher than normal, Tampa could get seriously flooded when Idalia hits (presumably just north of Tampa). The counter-clockwise winds will accelerate the incoming tide, and when the tide shifts to go out, the winds will preclude the bay from emptying out. It could get real ugly because a lot of Tampa is at elevation +2 or less.
Round and round she goes...
so far here in ft myers, just heavy rain. Doing well. Hope Sanibel, pine island and captiva get by with just rain.
Good! It will scare all the libs out of Florida!
Or as most rational people know, hurricane SEASON!
And, there are two causes: global warming and DeSantis.
Oh, and Trump. Of course.
It isn’t a real hurricane until Jim Cantori is broadcasting from the beach in his Weather Channel rain suit.
Oh, and Trump. Of course.
and racism.
Do you really think these LIEberal/Socialist/Marxist/Fascist/Democrat thugs will EVER quit throwing FEAR PORN at We the People?
There, fixed it! You are most welcome!
You are, of course, quite correct.
So, here is the big issue.
Where is Jim Cantori? Will he even show up for this storm?
Checkout Northeast Florida inland between Jacksonville and Tallahassee. I expect you can find still reasonably priced houses and insurance, and hurricanes generally don’t affect that area.
East and Gulf Coast, not so much.
Good hunting and good luck!
He flew to Gainesville yesterday. Also heard he was thinking about heading towards Tallahassee.
Where ever he is, you don’t want to be there.
You close to Stumpknockers? How about Red’s?
We drive 45 for Stumpknockers.
I REFUSE to live in fear!
Pay no attention to FEAR PORN!
Too bad that so many LIEberal voters do!
That’s also my take on Covid and masking.
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