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Why the Ohio Special Election Backfired for the GOP
The Bulwark ^ | 8/10/2023 | Daniel McGraw

Posted on 08/10/2023 9:24:13 AM PDT by Miami Rebel

“AS I THOUGHT ABOUT THIS VOTE more and more, what they were trying to do and the way they were trying to do it was just kind of creepy.”

(Excerpt) Read more at plus.thebulwark.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: abortion; gop; ohio
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This misstep sets up an energized pro-abortion vote in 2024. The GOP expected a 10% turnout: instead it was 37%.
1 posted on 08/10/2023 9:24:13 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
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To: Miami Rebel

They’re trying to use abortion to save Sherrod Brown’s Senate seat.

I doubt it will work.


2 posted on 08/10/2023 9:25:44 AM PDT by cotton1706
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To: Miami Rebel

For election takes, the Bulwark is my go to.


3 posted on 08/10/2023 9:28:12 AM PDT by JonPreston ( ✌ ☮️ )
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To: Miami Rebel

If you’re going to blog pimp you should post more of the article than one line.

Post all of it would be best.

Here’s enough for people to know what it’s about:

“AS I THOUGHT ABOUT THIS VOTE more and more, what they were trying to do and the way they were trying to do it was just kind of creepy.”

Outside a polling place in Cleveland on Tuesday, a thirtysomething art teacher was explaining to me her “no” vote on the ballot issue that, if approved, would have changed the way citizen-led constitutional amendments work in the state. Future amendments to the Ohio constitution could have been enacted only after receiving 60 percent of the vote in a statewide election, as opposed to the current simple majority.

The GOP-backed measure that would have instituted that change, “Issue 1,” went down in flames by 57 to 43 percent, in a vote with a very high turnout that was largely unexpected. Media attention has focused almost entirely on what the measure had to do with abortion. As I explained here last month, Issue 1 was put forth largely at the behest of conservatives who wanted to find a way to derail an abortion-rights constitutional amendment that was going to be on the ballot in November.

Clearly, it was a huge mistake by the Republican party to put Issue 1 on the ballot—the kind of mistake that raises questions about who is minding the GOP store these days nationally and in Ohio, and about what repercussions this vote might have in the 2024 presidential election.


4 posted on 08/10/2023 9:28:59 AM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: Miami Rebel

The Vote NO group made this totally about Abortion. Yea the Stupid GOP never clearly framed their argument. Almost like they wanted to lose.

When will the GOP STOP being the STUPID PARTY???? Stop playing fair with Democrats.


5 posted on 08/10/2023 9:29:16 AM PDT by OHPatriot (Si vis pacem, para bellum)
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To: Miami Rebel

They may blame it on abortion but sounds like Republicans dropped the ball in Ohio.


6 posted on 08/10/2023 9:29:55 AM PDT by Reno89519 (DeSantis 2024. Successful Governor, Honorable Veteran, Respectful, Respected.)
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To: Miami Rebel

I broke rules and read a good bit of the article before deciding to post. Probably worth reading the whole thing.

Here are a couple of good dparagraphs:

Meanwhile, “the way the GOP went about this, a really shortsighted approach to dealing with the public, they got Democrats energized, and they made Republicans stay home,” Alexander continued. “It’s hard to do both of those at once.”

But it would be fair to say that the Issue 1 vote highlighted several problem areas for the GOP—and that Trump is at the center of them all: misreading the electorate in lazy ways, having no party leadership in place that can tell certain factions of the coalition to go sit in the corner for a while, and confusion about how abortion will affect the GOP’s women vote.

First, the Ohio GOP gave this issue the status of an August special election, even though they had said earlier in the year that they wouldn’t permit such elections anymore. Then they started claiming that “outside interests” were hurting all Ohio voters, and that passing Issue 1 would save everyone’s political souls. And no, Republicans claimed, Issue 1 wasn’t really about the future abortion amendment vote, even though they had previously said it was.

Guess what? All this idiocy brought out voters in droves. There are about 8 million registered voters in Ohio, and about 3 million voted in this election, a turnout of 37.5 percent. Based on previous special elections in late summer in recent years, the Ohio GOP had expected turnout to be only about 10 percent. They were wrong by about 2.2 million voters.


Having read a good chunk of the article, I agree with the poster who doubts that the abortion amendment will save Brown.

However, the GOPe just might.


7 posted on 08/10/2023 9:33:23 AM PDT by Hieronymus
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To: Miami Rebel; All
What was the spending on this election?

I suspect it was all about outside spending making sure they had influence in Ohio in the future.

This article shows the Republican "yes" vote effort was outspent over three to one by far left groups. Both were mostly funded by sources outside the state.

Leftist groups spent 14.8 million. Pro-Yes votes spent 4.8 million.

Not that hard to predict huge turnout and defeat with a three to one spending margin.

8 posted on 08/10/2023 9:34:23 AM PDT by marktwain
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To: Reno89519

The vote no groups ran ads on conservative radio that appealed to conservatives. “Save our constitution”, “stop out of state influence”. And they had much more money.


9 posted on 08/10/2023 9:35:05 AM PDT by Gary from Dayton (Scary unvaccinated American )
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To: Miami Rebel

This is a wake up call. This was just to make it 60% to change the state Constitution. A common sense and reasonable proposition. The opposition was able to turn it into an abortion question in a red state and it got crushed. We need to face the reality that women, including GOP women, are going to single issue the rats into total control if we don’t get smart.


10 posted on 08/10/2023 9:38:00 AM PDT by gibsonguy
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To: cotton1706

“They’re trying to use abortion...”

It was the state GOP that gave Brown the gift. Unforced error by Senate President Matt Huffman and Secretary of State Frank LaRose.


11 posted on 08/10/2023 9:42:33 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
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To: ifinnegan

I thought that’s why FR provides for links. I’m glad you took me up on the one I provided.


12 posted on 08/10/2023 9:44:00 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
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To: Hieronymus

The same idiots who championed this amendment are going to be the ones running against Brown. So I wouldn’t be too sure about him being in trouble. He’s been in the seat for 16 years.


13 posted on 08/10/2023 9:44:44 AM PDT by bigdaddy45
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To: Miami Rebel; P-Marlowe

Issue 1 was correct. I voted FOR it. It should not be easy to change a constitution, but around here anyone with a big bankroll can get it started. Our last big manipulation was an amenmendment to allow gambling. Gambling policy should not be part of a constitution, nor traffic law, nor any number of piddly little things cluttering our constitution.

After passing gambling, the folks
woke up the next week to the fine print. They had just allowed gambling in only 4 locations at big casinos owned by billionaires.

Uncle Jake’s garage poker game on friday night was still illegal,if the cops ever felt the need to take down uncle jake.


14 posted on 08/10/2023 9:45:53 AM PDT by xzins (Retired US Army chaplain. Support our troops by praying for their victory. )
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To: Gary from Dayton

“And they had much more money.”

Why start a political fight that you know the opposition will outspend you?


15 posted on 08/10/2023 9:46:34 AM PDT by Round Earther
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To: gibsonguy

The process for amending the constitution has been the same since about 1911. Yet all of a sudden there’s a rush to change it in a special August election?

The optics of the whole thing were terrible. The GOP in Ohio is far from the best and brightest.


16 posted on 08/10/2023 9:46:39 AM PDT by bigdaddy45
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To: Miami Rebel

Ohio population 11.7 mil, 3 mil voted, 57% No, 43%Yes

25% of the population voted.

2019-2021 Ohio voter affiliation stats:
8 mil registered voters
950k democrats
836k republicans
6 million UNAFFILIATED registered voters

This state is red, it is more populist than conservative based on the stats above. Republicans repeatedly fail by not addressing their stance on abortion. DeSantis doesn’t have a chance here.

According to Red Eagle Politics (YouTube) A swath of Republicans voted No. He compared votes from red districts in the past with this election.

Why we lost: Republicans focused on individual topics such as abortion, guns, farmers etc. There was no solidarity. Voters are lazy and didn’t understand what Issue 1 was about. Dems ran nonstop ads on streaming services. Republicans didn’t bother.

My opinion: the messaging should have been,

Do you want 50% approval to change the Constitution or 60%?

Example, should unlimited abortion be passed by 50% or 60%?
Should banning abortion be passed by 50% or 60%?

In other words, do you want either party to be able to change things with only 50% approval?

https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Issue_1,_60%25_Vote_Requirement_to_Approve_Constitutional_Amendments_Measure_(2023)

This link explains everything about issue1 including who supported it and who didn’t as well as the amount of money from outside sources. Both sides received the same amount 14-15 million.

After Trump is gone, Ohio will return to a swing state…..my prediction based on the stats.


17 posted on 08/10/2023 9:50:53 AM PDT by Moe-Patrick (If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem)
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To: marktwain

Maybe the architects of this election should have anticipated the pushback. It’s not as though Ohio was the first state to have a battle royale over what at least indirectly was to be fought over abortion access.

Both sides were predominantly funded by outsiders. It’s just that the “pro” side did an inadequate job of fundraising.

That said, it wasn’t even close, so probably a few million more dollars wouldn’t have altered the outcome.


18 posted on 08/10/2023 9:53:58 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
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To: bigdaddy45

Yep the message of “less power for the people, more for the elites” was a hard one to sell. The GOP were morons to try to do so.

They also made a bad strategic mistake passing an abortion ban far stronger than the population supports. A few minor change and it could have been supported, instead it is now almost certain abortion will forever be allowed in Ohio.


19 posted on 08/10/2023 9:58:15 AM PDT by Renfrew (Muscovia delenda est)
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To: Miami Rebel

Here is the real deceit game that was being played. No one knew about this. Yeah, keep trusting the rino trash.

The proposed requirements of 88 counties along with Issue 1′s proposal to eliminate the 10-day cure period that allows citizen petitioners to collect more signatures if the signature verification process sees the campaign fall below county or state quotas.

60% or whatever, the rino scum fully intended to allow the petitioners to go through a great deal of effort and then deny them in the end.


20 posted on 08/10/2023 9:58:22 AM PDT by OftheOhio (never could dance but always could fight - Romeo company)
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