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To: ransomnote; All
I should have checked for a new thread before posting this.

I found the sauce for my comment a few days ago concerning the PRC's demographic data being worse than what we were told.

The thing is, it's worse than I thought.

The following is from Peter Zeihan at Zeihan of Politics. I don't always agree with him but he is open and honest about his biases. I can live with that.
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New data shows China is worse off than we thought...

New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse by Peter Zeihan on June 29, 2023

Today we're breaking down the new demographic data from the Chinese space. This will allow us to make some much-needed updates to an already bleak assessment, and spoiler alert, it's going to get a lot worse.

The first graph shows us the demographic picture before any of this new data were released. You'll notice China already has an incredibly fast-aging population. The number of people entering the workforce can't keep up with retirees, so even when using the old data, labor costs were increasing faster than any country in history.

The second graph shows us what the new data are saying. The number of children under age five has collapsed, leaving China with nearly half the amount of five-year-olds as fifteen-year-olds. This happened well before COVID drove down birth rates and increased death rates. Even though this is the "official" Chinese data, it's likely overly optimistic.

So that brings us to our internal extrapolation of the data as seen in graph three. Again this is our interpretation, but it gives you a better look at the Chinese predicament. Leaks out of China suggest the yellow bars don’t even exist; this means China isn't a country in demographic decay...its a country in the advanced stages of demographic collapse.

China is entering its final decade of operating as a modern industrialized nation. For any foreign business still in China, those sunk costs on factories can only keep you there for so long ... and it will only get worse from here on out.
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OK, I'm back. I can hear you all asking, "So LP what does this all mean." Glad you asked.

What it means is that the PRC is screwed. The future belongs to those who show up for it. The Chinese people have collectively decided not to show up. As bad as things are, they are going to get a LOT worse before they get better. China will eventually get better. Whether the CCP is still a going concern when it does remains to be seen.

Economics primer to explain why the demographic charts above are so bad. Different things happen at different times in peoples lives. 0 to 20-years-old you are basically your parent's hopeful investment in the future. You are a dead drain on the economy.

20 to 40-year-olds are the great borrower/spenders of the economy. They are buying houses, cars, paying off student loans, and having their own expensive little crumb crunchers. They are just getting set up in their work lives.

The 40 to 65-year-olds are the great producers of the economy. They are at their peak value on the job. They are great savers for retirement. This produces capital that the banks loan out to businesses.

All of this comes to a screeching halt when they retire. If they haven't passed on their experience at work, it's gone. They also convert their investments into low interest earning SAFE instruments. This means that the cost of borrowing for individuals and businesses goes UP which means that there is less available for consumption. You are a consumer, just not at as high a level and of better quality stuff.

With fewer workers entering the labor force and more people leaving it, the PRC is getting hammered by rapidly rising wages and rapidly rising costs of borrowing. This is especially bad for an economy which is utterly dependent on exports. The PRC is no longer the low cost producer of anything significant in the world economy.

To draw a double red underscore to Peter's analysis, the PRC STILL hasn't released its COVID death statistics. This suggests that COVID hit the PRC much harder than they are willing to admit.

That's enough for this evening.

WWG1WGA

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)

LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

93 posted on 06/30/2023 8:52:57 PM PDT by LonePalm (Commander and Chef)
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To: LonePalm

Awesome post and news!


99 posted on 06/30/2023 9:27:42 PM PDT by defconw
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To: LonePalm

Noticed also that the yellow bars start about the same time as the one child mandates did.


108 posted on 06/30/2023 9:47:22 PM PDT by reed13k (For evil to triumph it is only necessary that good men do nothing)
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To: LonePalm

+++++++!!!!!


111 posted on 06/30/2023 10:13:42 PM PDT by bitt (<img src=' 'width=40%>)
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To: LonePalm

That was most excellent. Thank you for posting this and your explanation.


189 posted on 07/01/2023 8:39:00 AM PDT by peteypupperdoo (Petey Pupperdoo - "We, the people, are the cure." (Q post #3724))
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To: LonePalm

This is an interesting topic. Thanks for posting it here.

So please take the following as discussion, not argument. I am no expert in this data.

Having said that, I think the author misinterpreted the under-5 year old cohort as being that small. As defined that cohort includes babies born from 2021-2025. He should have noticed that all those years haven’t gone by yet. So this cohort hasn’t finished taking its turns at bat. We’re almost exactly 1/2 way through it today.

The last graph does paint an interesting picture; if, as suggested, the yellow part of the data is fraudulent. How does he know this, again?

Thanks again for raising this important topic. I am interested in how you and others here interpret the Chinese demographic situation. It may indeed be key to the next few decades.


212 posted on 07/01/2023 12:39:27 PM PDT by Disestablishmentarian (The next war has already started. )
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