This is an interesting topic. Thanks for posting it here.
So please take the following as discussion, not argument. I am no expert in this data.
Having said that, I think the author misinterpreted the under-5 year old cohort as being that small. As defined that cohort includes babies born from 2021-2025. He should have noticed that all those years haven’t gone by yet. So this cohort hasn’t finished taking its turns at bat. We’re almost exactly 1/2 way through it today.
The last graph does paint an interesting picture; if, as suggested, the yellow part of the data is fraudulent. How does he know this, again?
Thanks again for raising this important topic. I am interested in how you and others here interpret the Chinese demographic situation. It may indeed be key to the next few decades.
The yellow portion in the third graph is the delta between the first two.
Some of the special sauce is experience dealing with publicly released statistics and other news items both inside and outside the PRC.
The last bar is a best estimate based on current trends.
The next note is my personal opinion and should not be solely used to make investment decisions.
If you own stock in ANY company with a large PRC exposure, think Apple, I would get out of it. And the sooner the better.
WWG1WGA
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)