Is WWIII about to begin in Poland, not in Ukraine?

Vanity | 4/3/23 | Vanity

[hardspunned]

MOSCOW, April 3. /TASS/. Aggressive developments around Russia make it necessary for Moscow to use the armed forces in a preventive manner, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told media on Monday, while commenting on the adoption of the updated Foreign Policy Concept.

"Many countries, in the first place, the countries of the collective West, have widely resorted to the preventive use of their armed forces," Peskov stated. "The current developments, aggressive developments around us just make it necessary to reserve such a right as well."

He stressed that "the concept itself has been updated in the light of the new realities."

On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved an updated and revised concept of the country's foreign policy. The concept states that Russia can use its armed forces for self-defense or for preventing attack against itself or its allies.

[Cronos]

The Belarusian Defense Ministry announced that a combat readiness check of the country’s Armed Forces

oh that's hilarious -- Belarus spends $660 million (yes "m"illion) on it's armed forces and they are mostly used to put down protestors.

it has 46,000 untrained soldiers equipped with weapons exclusively from the 1980s or earlier

[nickfrost1]

And no, Russia ain’t going to go to Poland — it’s already getting its butt kicked by Ukraine.==

You obviously went down to the ukies propaganda. They do better PR on West for sure especially after West forbids RT(freedom of speech obviously). So you have no other side message anymore to make a balanced view.

[Trinity5]

I doubt you believe that Danzig was the catalyst for the German invasion. It was just another excuse. There were multiple agreements in place especially one big one between Germany and the Soviet Union. And there was no “hard line” by Poland. In fact there was the German-Polish Declaration of Non Aggression in which Poland was abiding by in reference to Danzig.

[nickfrost1]

Russia attacks a NATO country and Russia then disintegrates. The Ruskis can barely manage Ukraine.==

C'mon don't be so stupid. Russia uses on Ukraine barely even 5% of her possible forces. Russia has a mobilization resource now of 10 mlns easy. But she uses now about 0.5 mln army in this war.

Ukies is a different picture. See this diagram. How the number of males 20-40 ages(fighting ages) declined to half. For just ONE year. One more year and ukies will be conscript the children and old folk to their army.

[Cronos]

Always wanting to punch above their weight, based on a naive belief that a more powerful nation will ride to the rescue.

Sigh... nope

until the 1700s, Poland WAS the more powerful political entity compared to its neighbors.

it failed due to internal politics (liberum veto)

First Germany, with the UK over the horizon. -- er... nope -- Poland was partitioned between Prussia, Austria and Muscowy in 1796 - and fought multiple uprising, not waiting for someone over the horizon

Then in World war one, in 1917 Pilsudski took the opportunity to fight against the most dangerous (Tsarist Russia) by fighting on the least dangerous (Austria's) side.

In 1938 you say "Germany with the UK over the horizon" -- do you have any idea about Poland's position in 1939? It had the Soviets on one side - and the Soviets had openly talked about conquering all of europe, with Poland in their sights AND the Nazis on the other side who also talked of taking over Poland's lands - they could not side with either

Poland could NOT have allied with Nazi Germany when Germany wanted Poland's land - it would be like South Korea in 1960 allying itself with North Korea

[Cronos]

“Poland’s play” — what are you talking about?

[Cronos]

The thing is “real security for Ukraine” is difficult as long as Russia says
1. Ukraine is an illegitimate country
2. Ukraine should be assimilated into Russia
3. All Ukrainians are Nazis as they don’t want to be ruled by the Kremlin

[Cronos]

Kim is going to send his half starved soldiers to Russia?

They will probably run away the moment they cross the Nork-Russki border

[Cronos]

What is incredible to me is how history goes in circles — China see’s itself as having no need of allies or partners as it is the Middle Kingdom.

It can use vassals but has no need of partners

[Cronos]

Iran and China will never "ally" with Russia -- both Iran and China remember the Russia fought wars with them and took Iranian and Chinese territory in the 1700s and 1800s

And they remember

[Cronos]

. If total capitulation is not an option and you were were calling the Russian moves, what would you do?

At this point, Russia should retreat to Feb 22 borders - and incorporate the DPR and LPR.

[Cronos]

Russia uses on Ukraine barely even 5% of her possible forces.

Nope - Russia:

• pulled out troops from Kaliningrad and the Finnish border to fight in Ukraine
  
  
• Went on a partial mobilization to build up troops in Ukraine
  
  
• Pulled in troops from the Far east to build up the numbers in Ukraine

it is clear that Russia has committed 90% + of its effective military (not talking about security guards but combat troops) to Ukraine

[Cronos]

Russia uses on Ukraine barely even 5% of her possible forces.

Nope - Russia:

• pulled out troops from Kaliningrad and the Finnish border to fight in Ukraine
  
  
• Went on a partial mobilization to build up troops in Ukraine
  
  
• Pulled in troops from the Far east to build up the numbers in Ukraine

it is clear that Russia has committed 90% + of its effective military (not talking about security guards but combat troops) to Ukraine

[Cronos]

it's not propaganda -- look at the map -- you Russkies are losing

And each time a Moscow ruled entity loses, it shatters -- Tsarist Russia collapsed in 1917 and a smaller USSR emerged; in 1990 it collapsed further - ah well, time for a return to the borders of 1450 muscowy

[pierrem15]

Russia has forces in Cuba and Venezuela right now, just not enough or with weaponry powerful enough to provoke the US.

The same was true of Ukraine. Even after 2014, a few Western troops were rotated in and out to train Ukrainians, but that's it. NATO would have to move a couple million troops to Russia's borders to be a conventional threat. I doubt it can even muster that number.

This isn't about any "threat" to Russia, it's about Putin's butthurt over the collapse of the Soviet Union.

[pierrem15]

Then real deterrence would be more precise.

[nickfrost1]

Russia has forces in Cuba and Venezuela right now, just not enough or with weaponry powerful enough to provoke the US.==

But if Russia and China for this matter will start arming and training them and push them to fight with US for Texas or Florida for example? What you will say then?

But it is a same thing what US is doing right now with Ukraine. At least Russia owed US a one for ww2 help but the score is cleared now because of this thing.

[nickfrost1]

Russia pulled out troops from Kaliningrad and the Finnish border to fight in Ukraine==

She just ROTATES troops especially its officers to give them all a battle experience.

Went on a partial mobilization to build up troops in Ukraine==

It was for raise troops quickly. BUT the top is 400 thousands maybe 0.5 mln. But again the mobilization resource is still 10 mlns. It is a 5%.

[pierrem15]

But it is a same thing what US is doing right now with Ukraine.

Ukraine is simply not big enough and does not have sufficient weaponry to attack Russia. It's difficult to conceive of any circumstance in which they would. And if Russia is so worried about an attack from Ukraine, perhaps they shouldn't have invaded.

[nickfrost1]

Iran and China will never “ally” with Russia — both Iran and China remember the Russia fought wars with them===

Yeah maybe in a FAR past. But in RECENT past we see a colonization of China by West(GB). The anticolonial war with Japan where Russia as Soviet Union was ally. The colonization of Iran by same West(GB again with British Petroleum). And India too and Brazil and so on.

You should notice that BRICS countries are all a former colonies or victims of colonization attempts. By West. But G7 are a former colonial metropolises OF West.

SO you may see there is an antagonistic alliances: BRICS vs G7. And BRICS countries will NEVER forget or forgive G7 policy of RECENT (20th century) past.

Yes of course if there were NOT United States and G7 then such different countries as Russia, China, Iran might NOT be allies in BRICS. But West unites them together. And West will not go away soon right? SO West will KEEP them together for many years ahead.