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There are very fewer bigger NFL fans than I am. I’ve always been a fan, but a real SUPER-FAN since I started playing Fantasy in 1993. I’ve been saying, for a few years now, that the outcomes of many games are pre-determined. I don’t think they FIX them all, just enough to make the “script” play out. And, enough to make SURE the casinos and betting house keep a safe profit margin.

And, enough to make SURE the casinos and betting house keep a safe profit margin.

The vig should be enough to keep the casinos and sportsbooks afloat.

That said, way back in the early '80s some kid who went to my prep school who I hardly knew claimed that he had knowledge that a small number of games were fixed by buying an official, the weak link in the chain. The trick to finding the fix, I suppose, is to find where the line is "off" so that the betting goes lopsided the "wrong" way.

For my part, I don't know if the Super Bowls and playoffs are rigged regularly. I remember when the Steelers beat the Cowboys way back, 35-31, it was a push, the ONLY scenario where Vegas makes no money, because the line was Pittsbirgh -4.

Also, some of the critical plays could NOT have been scripted (the helmet catch in Giants vs. Patriots, Mike Jones' tackle for the Rams against the Titans on the last play.

The fact that gambling is prevalent is actually the biggest reason to believe that the games are NOT fixed. Fixed games would kill the profits of the sports books. To see this, you simply need to understand how sports books make money. They do not give a crap which team wins the point spread betting. They set the spread in such a way as to attract balanced action; that is roughly the same amount of money bet on each team. They are not trying to predict the result of the game when setting the spread, but rather the betting public’s perception of what that outcome will be. Assuming they succeed (and they almost always do; they are very good at setting lines), they are then guaranteed to profit regardless of the outcome of the game.

That is because they don’t pay off even money to winners, but rather typically -110 odds. This means that if you bet $110 on a game they pay you a profit of $100, not $110. Consider a hypothetical sports book with the upcoming Super Bowl. Suppose they set some line for the game and attract $11 million in bets on each team. Regardless of which team wins the betting, they then owe the winners $10 million in the winning bets. They have $11 million in losing bets to pay off this sum to the winners. The book therefore makes $1 million off the betting regardless of whether the Chiefs or Eagles win the betting.

Now what could possibly go wrong with this business model? Well two things: either a reduction in betting action or unbalanced betting. Rigged games could lead to either of these scenarios whereas fair games would not. If it became widely known that games were rigged, most people would stop betting on them. Why would you bet on an unfair game? The only people who would still bet would be those who knew about the fix, and they certainly would not be betting equally on both teams, would they? Either way, rigging the games would kill the sports books. The fact that sports books are operating and profitable is a very good indication that games are fair.