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If You're Expecting Redemption...
Market-Ticker ^ | 30 Jan, 2023 | Karl Denninger

Posted on 01/30/2023 4:36:31 AM PST by MtnClimber

... from The Fed, or from Biden, you're certifiable.

The Fed meeting is coming. PPI and CPI have relaxed somewhat, but the key is -- somewhat. Problem: The Omnibus spending isn't in the system yet, and thus its impact isn't in there either. But it will be because there's no effective means to stop it other than a refusal to raise the debt ceiling.

Biden has said he will veto any attempt to roll back the spending bill, and there's no chance of an override given Congressional makeup. Therefore, what's done is done.

But -- and this is important -- Biden also, in the last couple of days, has reiterated that he intends to "strengthen" Medicare and has said nothing, of course, about using the 100 year old laws that make virtually all of the pricing systems in the medical area of our economy felonious. The issue is that without fixing that specific area -- CMS in the Federal Budget, which is Medicare and Medicaid -- the government cannot resolve the spiral of deficits and inflation.

The mechanism that led Congress and the White House to believe they could get away with this -- trade sequestration -- is gone. We destroyed it with the Russian sanctions; it was not imposed on us, so that was a choice and we made it. I doubt anyone in the Executive considered this, but that's irrelevant now because what's done is done.

We have habituated ourselves to the "inflation free" nature of deficit spending over the last two decades but it always a Chimera. Bernanke in fact commented on it a few times and said he didn't understand the why -- but he knew it would end and that The Fed's capacity to keep emitting credit in concert with Congress without immediate blowback in inflation was going to end too, and if we ran up the national credit card in front of that the consequences were going to be nasty.

Well, the nasty is here -- like it or not.....


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: denninger; inflation; ticker

1 posted on 01/30/2023 4:36:31 AM PST by MtnClimber
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To: MtnClimber

Our unfunded government liabilities are the real ticking timebomb and nothing is being done about it.


2 posted on 01/30/2023 4:36:45 AM PST by MtnClimber (For photos of Colorado scenery and wildlife, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: MtnClimber

They will not debate whether money should be spent or not, They will agree on a blank check, only debate will be who gets it and for what.


3 posted on 01/30/2023 4:39:31 AM PST by Openurmind (The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world it leaves to its children. ~ D. Bonhoeffer)
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To: MtnClimber
It all makes sense when seen in the light of class warfare.

Whatever else is going on, they consider the working class and middle class their enemies and behave accordingly. But they still need us for a while.

4 posted on 01/30/2023 4:49:45 AM PST by Salman (It's not a slippery slope if it was part of the program all along. )
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To: MtnClimber

“refusal to raise the debt ceiling”

The House should pass many bills, each with a modest spending cut and a modest debt limit increase (say the amount to be saved over the next five years).

Put the Democrats in the position of refusing to increase the debt limit.


5 posted on 01/30/2023 4:51:45 AM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: Brian Griffin

You’re talking about the stupid party here, right?


6 posted on 01/30/2023 5:02:12 AM PST by No Party Affiliation
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To: MtnClimber

US is paying almost 1 trillion/yr in interest at present. This will increase.

FY22 givernment spent 6.27T, 1.38T more than revenue. Mandatory spending is 2/3s of the annual budget. More than half of the feral givernment budget is payment for people retirement and medical and servicing the interest on the debt.

Social Security (1.2T)(19%)(49M retirees)
Medicare ($839B)(13%);
Medicaid (724B)(11%)
Interest on debt (724B)(11%).

and

National defense (839B)(13%).

There’s 67% of the budget. Where do you want to start cutting? The deep state will never go away, never. Inflation only helps the givernment. Remember in good times, givernment increases in size and spends more than it takes in revenue. In bad times, givernment increases in size and spends more than it takes in revenue. The givernment is too big now to succeed.


7 posted on 01/30/2023 5:08:43 AM PST by Susquehanna Patriot ( )
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To: Salman
But not for much longer.

Automation, robotics and AI will make all but the elite (monarchy) redundant.

We (mob) won't be meeting the new boss.

That's why they are eliminating the food supply.

8 posted on 01/30/2023 5:10:48 AM PST by Aevery_Freeman (DemonRatz to Biden: You've outlived your uselessness. Buh-Bye!)
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To: No Party Affiliation

“You’re talking about the stupid party here, right?”

Yepp, he was. We are also talking about a group of people who vote to pass, without reading, a 4000 page bill written by special interests. Theoretically, one cannot cut spending without cutting out the laws and regulations that are driving the spending. The deep state bureaucracy will not help the effort. We are doomed by the laws of economics.


9 posted on 01/30/2023 5:26:57 AM PST by Susquehanna Patriot ( )
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To: Susquehanna Patriot

18 Republicans voted for it too. Nobody read it....and they did that on purpose.

They are in this together. The parties are not stupid they are tyranical.


10 posted on 01/30/2023 6:05:09 AM PST by xenia ( “The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it” George Orwell)
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To: MtnClimber

I will not live to see this but …… imagine the lamestream media reactions when they are told, “you aren’t needed anymore”


11 posted on 01/30/2023 6:27:20 AM PST by no-to-illegals (The enemy has US surrounded. May God have mercy on them.)
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To: MtnClimber
Our unfunded Global government liabilities are the real ticking timebomb and nothing is being done about it.

The single biggest problem facing the world today is grossly excessive government spending. Again, it is not a tax issue, it is a spending issue. The total acknowledged on-the-books debt to the governments of the world is north of $220 Trillion. Unfunded liabilities are another $440 Trillion.

Total global wealth is $431 Trillion of which $93 Trillion is “government wealth.” As few governments publish an accurate Balance Sheet, and their Income Statements are suspect, take that $93 Trillion number with a few railroad cars off salt.

Note that all debt is fungible and until the borrower declares bankruptcy, liquid.

Off the $338 Trillion ($431T - $93T) of wealth that is privately held, two-thirds $225.3 Trillion) is Real Estate which is not fungible and is illiquid. Another $28.2 Trillion is other assets which are non-fungible and illiquid such as Plant and Equipment, Intellectual Property, or Corporate Goodwill. Therefore, only $84.5 Trillion of global private wealth is fungible and liquid.

While the $253.5 Trillion of non-fungible and illiquid assets are largely productive in the hands of their current owners, as anyone who has ever participated in a bankruptcy or going-out-of business proceedings can tell you, an immediate forced liquidation of assets typically yields around 10% of the book value.

Therefore, if the governments of the world were to seize all private wealth to pay off their debts, that would yield $109.9 Trillion ($84.5T of liquid assets, and $25.4T from the forced liquidation of illiquid assets). Again, assuming that the $93 Trillion of current government assets is a valid number and those assets are liquid, adding the $109.5 Trillion raised by seizing all private wealth, stlll leaves the governments of the world short at least $17.1 Trillion to pay off their $220 Trillion of acknowledged on-the-books debt.

Remember the United States Government went bankrupt running a legal, and previously highly profitable, brothel (the Mustang Ranch) in Nevada that it seized as part of a tax case.

As a direct result of the out of control government spending, inflation and interest rates will continue to rise. Soon and very soon, many of the world’s governments are going to default on their debt.

If your solution is to have the world’s economy “grow its way out of this,” realize that global government spending would have to be reduced from its current share of more than 20% of Gross World Product to less than 10%. Probably not going to happen peacefully.

In the United States, the most productive nation on earth, and also one of the most indebted, total government (Federal, State, and Local) spending accounts for 36.75% of Gross Domestic Product. We will not escape this, and it will hit this nation far harder than most.

12 posted on 01/30/2023 6:38:18 AM PST by Natty Bumppo@frontier.net (We are the dangerous ones, who stand between all we love and a more dangerous world.)
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To: MtnClimber; All
"Biden has said he will veto any attempt to roll back the spending bill, and there's no chance of an override given Congressional makeup [emphasis added]."

The corrupt, constitutinally undefined political parties have effectively wrongly nullified Congress's constitutionally enumerated power to override presidential vetoes imo.

The bottom line is this imo. ALL the states desperately need to put a "permanent" stop to unconstitutional federal taxes, and likewise unconstitutional interference in the affairs of the sovereign states, by effectively "seceding" from the unconstitutionally big federal government.

The states will "secede" from the corrupt feds by repealing the 16th (direct taxes) and 17th (popular voting for federal senators) Amendments (16&17A).

If the proposed amendment was limited strictly to repealing 16&17A, relatively little or ideally no discussion would be needed before ratification of the amendment imo.

13 posted on 01/30/2023 8:48:49 AM PST by Amendment10
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