Posted on 11/09/2022 7:30:41 AM PST by MountainWalker
It's one of the strangest elections on the books, as witness the shock among so many on the Democrat side that they did so well. They somehow managed to defy political gravity, despite the worst "wrong track" numbers in memory. Probably no single explanation, but a few factors...
To get the most obvious out of the way, a lot of people are yelling "fraud." Some hinky stuff happened, and apparently we'll have to put up with that forever, because the electorate does not insist on clean, efficient elections even after states like Florida prove it's possible. Fraud doesn't explain nationwide results, though. Better to consider that Dems took advantage of the pandemic to loosen voter rules to an absolutely insane degree, and they are absolute masters at harvesting what we might politely refer to as the "indifferent" voter. What's the point of talking about "momentum," late-breaking events, or even how candidates perform at debates when a huge chunk of the vote is banked by mail before the debates even happen? Robotic party-line voters and harvesting matter more than campaign skill.
Second, candidate quality matters - and it matters a LOT more for the party that doesn't have a massive ballot-harvesting machine humming away to scoop up indifferent voters early. This was painfully illustrated in Pennsylvania, the true bellwether race of this election. Many GOP candidates did well in tough areas, but they just couldn't close the deal. That has a lot to do with candidate quality - think of the old maxim that you only get one chance to make a first impression. That's even more important in an era of absurdly loose early voting. If scads of mail-in votes are harvested before there are even debates, then the "campaign" doesn't matter as much. You can run a tight campaign, make all the right moves while your opponent implodes, and still come up short because you got off on the wrong foot. That's an environment that obviously favors incumbents, who already got elected and have huge bankrolls of money and power, over challengers who have to introduce themselves - and it really cuts against "outsider" challengers without political resumes or establishment support. The only real red tsunami of the midterm election, in Florida, featured incumbent Republicans with very solid resumes and excellent political machines. DeSantis shook the pillars of heaven in a state he originally won by a squeaker against a drug-addled train wreck Dem.
Third, and related: money matters, a lot. You didn't hear any media bellyaching about money in politics this time around because Democrats had oceans of it. We laugh at proven-loser Dems like Abrams and Beto who wasted millions, but believe me, Dems had plenty to waste. Money always matters in politics - it might not overwhelm everything else, we love stories of the underfunded David taking out establishment Goliath, but it's a huge factor. It lets you blast your message to voters - and Dems get BILLIONS of in-kind donations from their media. Dems also have VERY powerful political machines in the cities they control, which churn out votes like a factory punching out widgets. Some of those machines are a century old and more. It takes money, time, and skill to build operations that can fight back.
Fourth, movement and polarization are a real factor - an opportunity in some ways for the GOP, a problem in others. It's striking how closely Zeldin's heartbreaking loss in NY tracks with the number of people who fled the Dem train wreck in NY. Votes have been cast with feet. People are moving around, between states and to the suburbs. It's not really a new phenomenon - think back to the "white flight" debate of decades past. Badly governed jurisdictions tend to get worse as reasonable people flee. Failure doubles down, again and again. The GOP's best bet is to reach people in death-spiral blue areas with the message that they CAN do better, things CAN change, but it's not easy. It's only possible if you're running candidates who convince those voters they can govern well, with a nationwide election narrative. Didn't really see much of a national election narrative from the GOP this time around. The Dems definitely had one, with abortion panic and Biden's Mussolini speeches. They made a desperately play to shore up their base, and it worked extremely well.
Now for a couple of things that may not be easy to hear. One: the pandemic changed this country for the long term, and not at all in a good way. A certain despair has settled in, a sense that things can't be any better, and we really don't DESERVE better. It's sunk in deep. That's one reason Dems defied those wrong-track, mad-as-hell numbers that had so many Dem analysts nervous yesterday morning. Sure, 70% or 85% or whatever say wrong track - but what does that mean, if so many buy lefty spin that it can't get better, that we DESERVE decline? The pandemic brought a deep and enduring shift toward the desire for government-provided "security" at all costs, in numerous issues. It dovetails with mail-in voting, which is perfect for reaching the "laptop class" that arose during lockdowns, valuing handouts over opportunity. This happened at a time when the Left's control of institutional power became near-absolute. With the capture of large corporations, they gained control of every large institution that influences the attitudes of young and suburban voters. The pandemic magnified that influence. Look at how successful the Dems' despicable strategy of boosting the very GOP candidates they screamed were a threat to Democracy Itself was. They won every single race they used that tactic in, didn't they? That stuff only works if you have overwhelming institutional control.
Likewise with abortion, which was fascinatingly under-polled going into the election. Poll after poll said voters were far more concerned about inflation, crime, etc. And yet on election night, we got all these exit polls saying it effectively erased the economy as an issue. That's raw institutional power at work, wielded over the course of generations. Mail-in ballots cast at the height of post-Dodd pushback were a big reason polls from the fall that showed abortion receding as an issue were wrong. The pro-abortion reflex ran deep in some quarters. It's true that the electorate writ large doesn't like either extreme on abortion, but eliminating abortion was more clearly on the ballot this time around, so the vote against it mobilized. I said at the time pro-lifers should give voters more time to adjust to the new reality. Vast fortresses of institutional power are defeated with patient strategy and persistence - siege warfare, not all-or-nothing cavalry charges. GOP needs to get better at changing the electorate - yes, social engineering! Dems do it all day, every day, without mercy or hesitation.
Last bit: look, I know saying a word about Trump or Trump vs. DeSantis is going to unleash a flood of strong responses. Nobody's position on that hot-button issue will change because of a Tweet. I thought last night's results wrote a message in the sky with letters of fire. YMMV. The sum of everything we saw last night argues for smart strategy, a proven record of accomplishments, wisely choosing battles that matter and making careful investments of political capital. Wavering voters and nervous folks like visionaries who also demonstrate competence. You just can't get around the fact that Dems put Trump on the ballot with all their caterwauling about Jan 6 and DEMOCRACY IN PERIL, and ran very well against him. He's got major negatives that aren't going away. You may think that's unfair, but it's true. Trump has baggage from the pandemic that turns off people who might otherwise vote red. He sat on a pile of money that could have helped in the midterms. He splits up the GOP while Dems grow ever more horrifyingly united under totalitarian ideology. Trump certainly does have strengths, which his ardent detractors underestimate, and his admin did better on many key issues pre-pandemic than even he can articulate. But the pandemic DID happen. 2020 happened. Last night showed Dems will win if we never leave 2020 behind.
Want to know how Dems won PA with a guy who has serious brain damage? Same way they put a senile disaster in the White House and then weathered the midterms. Party power, institutional control, ideological unity, a machine that spits out votes even if the candidate is a turnip. You can't beat that without a strong and unified opposition party. You don't want to get that unity the way Dems do it, of course, but you need a team that can play all the way into overtime. Pick fights that matter and send in players who can win, led by a good coach.
It’s hard to run against Santa Claus!
“...
Furthermore, the fact that people don’t even need to show up on election day anymore, which previously served as a check against a lazier and dumber electorate, is going to be an incredibly difficult obstacle for us to overcome.
...”
Agree! By making voting “convenient”, we have rewarded and made it easy for the uninformed, disinterested and lazy voter to vote.
I was always opposed to these voter registration campaigns. If you’re not motivated enough to take the time to go register to vote. You shouldn’t be voting!
California and New York are one-party states.
Republicans will NEVER run those states again, even if the USA collapses.
Everything will form around the support for the Woke Democrat Party - funding, education, bureaucracy, law-enforcement, and of course, voting and counting processes.
THAT is institutional control
Gen Z and millennials are such spoiled brats.
He’s right it was not muh democracy they helped the dems it was abortion look at that cnn exit poll the one that got cnn all sad yes it said that the majority believe the country is on the wrong track but other than the economy what was the second biggest issue abortion.. the dobbs decision brought out the commie base in droves that is why leftist candidates kept on bringing it up and it worked it wasn’t trump or maga it was abortion period
Because the ONLY thing the dems care about is the (D) in the win column. They'll worry about what to do with lurch when he keels over, and even then not very much. It doesn't matter how terrible the individual is - there are plenty more just like him waiting to serve the hive.
Pubbies, OTOH, agonized over Oz. They struggled over whether or not he would vote the "right" way, or abandon us in a time of need? They couldn't wrap their minds around the fact that none of that mattered unless they could circle the wagons around the pubbie candidate (whichever pubbie candidate was running) and defeat the dims.
We have met the enemy and he is us.
It shows that there is a finger on the scale, no matter what anyone thinks.
His take is pretty close to mine. I would add that leftist domination over the education system has created a generation of young zealots. Also, women are quite a bit more susceptible to media propaganda than men.
The Fake Mexican lost, he should be go play air guitar in a crappy rock band.
Uncle Fester was cheated into office by the Philly Phraudsters.
Their cousins, the Maricopa Manipulators are still causing trouble.
The Red Wave was more like a wake.
The fact that Clinton and Obama were seen supporting a brain dead candidate tells me they knew in advance that candidate would win.
Temporarily filling-in for lightman,
while he's smashing PA's demonKKKrat voting poll fraud & corruption,
on Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday.
Join us at the Official PA Election Thread.
Bingo! Winner, Winner, Chicken Dinner!
Very good point there. I was at a conference recently that included a talk on social media marketing. The gist: If you want to reach the young office, you have to be on TikTok and, to a lesser extent, Instagram. Facebook is for older people now and is of declining importance. Twitter, for all the talk about it in the legacy media, is irrelevant.
He is correct that the pandemic experience had a major impact, but I think he misunderstands what that impact was. The whole management of the pandemic served in the common mind to do something crucial for the leftwing: by way of the emphasis on “the science’ and “Listen to the experts,” they were able to detach the damaging effects of shutdown, mask mandates, vax mandates etc, from the politicians who ordered them.
It isn’t that people deserve decline, it is that the decline is not attributed to their leaders but to circumstance, over which nobody has any control.
Now, 70-80% of the people think the country is on the wrong track, but they no longer connect that miserable fact with the people who have led them down that wrong track. They don’t like inflation, but they don’t have the judgment to see how it is created by profligate officials they elected.
They don’t like the flood of illegals crossing the border, if they even think about it, but they don’t see it as a deliberate result of Biden policies; they just see it as something which is happening, sort of like bad weather. So Biden sends Harris to “investigate the root causes” of this phenomenon. The complicit media adds to the fog by wondering about “the root causes of the migration,” as if it were some kind of external event.
They are disturbed by rising violent crime, but it seldom occurs to them to hold their elected officials responsible for their insane policies. So we had Kathy Hochul responding to the NYC crime increase like a bemused curious bystander, wondering why Zeldin was upset about it. And she was rewarded for her oblivious attitude by a solid re-election.
Biden revealed how they use this disconnect, when he announced that “we are in the most dangerous threat of nuclear war since the Cuban missile crisis” — as if he had just been advised of an approaching hurricane — and then he took off for another long weekend in Delaware. Message: I have done my job by warning you, nothing else to be done about it so just watch out.
And the mass of people, who don’t think critically about much of anything, never question the premises embedded in these numbing communications.
This has all been orchestrated, make no mistake, and because of this, I am very pessimistic that the American experiment will recover. Ironically, the reason the “threat to democracy” meme didn’t have much effect is that the bulk of Americans don’t see that they have a stake in self government beyond short term self interest.
As Mencken said, “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
Thanks to the numbed out credulity of the last couple generations, we all are going to get it good and hard.
>It shows that there is a finger on the scale, no matter what anyone thinks.
Yeah, that dude that got 10 change of mail address notifications at his vacant house in AZ is probably 1 of 10,000. No one will know where the vote came from, because once it leaves the envelope, it’s just a vote.
Stopped reading there. Hello, Fetterman won! Do not lecture me on quality of candidates.
Biden, the Democrat Party and MSM successfully defined Republicans as fascists and anti-democracy. Get used to losing.
GOOD TAKEAWAY
Democrats have figured out
<><> Americans are more easily convinced to vote on social than economic issues
<><> it’s easier to play on people’s emotions rather than appeal to their intelligence.
Candidate quality matters for Republicans. Oz was polarizing and it’s unclear if he won over those who didn’t want him in the primary. Walker is flawed and we’re looking at a run off election when every other Republican running state wide in GA had an easy win. Yes. Candidate quality matters.
Amusing and sadly accurate analysis.
Somehow Dems are never responsible for the horrible events (inflation, crime, open borders) they cause. Somehow it is outside their control.
Compare the treatment of the handling of a hurricane by Bush or Trump vs. Obama or Biden. Somehow the hurricane is the Republican’s fault and all responses should be federal. The Dem though is the victim of circumstances outside control or accountability on anything.
Even crime. Letting criminals back on the streets = more crime and they’ll likely keep committing crimes until they murder someone. Voters can’t connect the dots.
Dems are on TikTok, SnapChat and control social media. You can’t do research on a candidate without the google machine sending you to the first page (all most people examine) being all Dem spin machine stories.
Dems chop up the country into self-interested groups. Want to keep your ‘gay rights’? Vote Dem or Republicans will not let you marry and put you in jail. Want your abortions on demand? Vote Dem as Republicans will have you a Handmaiden’s Tale baby machine. Want free stuff (Obamaphone) and to keep getting disability or social security? Vote Dems or else!
Young people were told 3 weeks ago that the $10,000 in debt relief wouldn’t happen unless Dems were in charge.
Lindsay Graham went out and said the Senate would pass a national abortion ban 3 weeks before the election. How many voters did that motivate?
It’s depressing honestly and seems to have no solution - short of a limited nuclear exchange with Putin wiping out some of our big cities.
Fair elections were over after 2020. The deep state Republicans and democrats combined to cheat anyone who would upset the status quo. They will still allow voices but will never allow someone like trump to have real power.
If you can’t beat them, join them. Well, not completely. If a state has mail-in voting or early voting, the we start campaigning early. We call for debates early. If Democrat candidates hide, then you brutally attack and ridicule them for hiding. No more of this playing by the old rules when we had a single Election Day. We find our own “threat to democracy” platitude, give it some teeth and jam it down their throats. We go into the hood. We go into the burbs. We go on Tic Tok or whatever the current social media fad is, and stuff it down their throats. We engage in constant, nonstop lawfare. We use the politics of personal destruction. But most importantly we articulate a vision that includes concrete, easy to understand solutions. Keep it simple. Three top issues and only three. 50% of Americans have below average IQs. Play to that. The dumb people need to understand the simple solutions. But don’t call them dumb, build them up. Appeal to their feelings, because they are not able to think. Please excuse my contempt. I have known for a long time that it doesn’t play well and because of that I never ran for office.
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