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Posted on 11/06/2022 12:31:41 PM PST by EBH
The Governor of the Dutch central bank stated the gold revaluation account ensures the solvency of his central bank in an interview on television about prospective losses. The significance of this statement is that if any European central bank will cover losses by using its gold revaluation account in full, the ECB has to put a floor under the gold price. And if more losses need to be covered than the current gold revaluation accounts of European central banks allow, the ECB will need to revalue gold.
A discussion has commenced in the Netherlands after Klaas Knot, Governor of the Dutch central bank (DNB), wrote a letter to Sigrid Kaag, Dutch Minister of Finance, on September 9, 2022. The letter is titled: “DNB foresees deterioration of capital position.” Knot warns Kaag of DNB losses due to interest rate hikes—decided by the European Central Bank (ECB) but applied by all National Central Banks (NCBs) of the Eurosystem. In recent years Quantitative Easing (QE) has made DNB, and all other NCBs, create an abundance in bank reserves to buy government bonds. Now the ECB is raising interest rates DNB has to pay banks more and more interest over their excess reserves. These expenditures cause DNB to suffer losses to the detriment of its capital position (equity). Note, all NCBs in the Eurosystem face similar challenges.
For this year DNB expects a small loss but for the years 2023 through 2026 a loss of €9 billion euros is expected. Though, it could be more. DNB’s equity is currently €11.3 billion. If the losses exceed €11.3 billion, DNB’s equity will become negative. Although it’s possible for a central bank to operate under negative equity, it does hurt credibility—a central bank’s most valuable asset. And once credibility is lost people will dump the currency issued by said central bank.
For this reason, Knot wants to discuss with the Dutch state (DNB’s sole shareholder) the possibilities of funding a recapitalization of DNB. In other words, if taxpayers can bail-out their central bank.
The Gold Revaluation Account as a Solvency Backstop
A gold revaluation account (GRA) is basically an accounting item that records the unrealized gains of a central bank’s gold. Because most of Europe’s monetary gold was accumulated during Bretton Woods at $35 dollars an ounce, the respective GRAs are substantial. Monetary gold in the Eurosystem is marked to market and the gold price today is much higher than $35.
Below is a simplified balance sheet of a central bank. On the asset side there are international reserves (gold and foreign exchange), a bond portfolio, and discount loans to commercial banks. On the liability side there is the monetary base (reserves and currency), a deposit account for the government, a GRA, and equity.
Interestingly, there is no limit on a GRA because gold is the only international reserve asset that can’t be printed. Denominated in fiat currencies, which can and are printed, the gold price doesn’t have a ceiling and it can inflate balance sheets likewise.
The GRA can be seen as equity but technically it isn’t at this point because it’s prohibited from being used. The current laws in the E.U. dictate: “there shall be no netting of unrealized losses in any one security, or in any currency or in gold holdings against unrealized gains in other securities or currencies or gold.” At this stage the GRA just swells and shrinks in sync with the rise and fall of the price of gold. But all this might change.
On Sunday October 30, 2022, Knot was interviewed by Buitenhof about DNB’s losses. When the solvency of DNB’s balance sheet was questioned Knot brought up the GRA.
Interviewer: So, what you're saying is that the higher the interest rate by the European Central Bank, the more expensive it gets for us ...
Knot: Yes, that is correct ...
Interviewer: ... and the more money is needed. Hold on, I want to finish my question, so we all understand. And the higher the probability the Dutch taxpayer has to pay to fix the balance sheet of the Dutch central bank of which I always thought, "that's solid, it can't fail." This story is new to me.
Knot: The balance sheet of the Dutch central banks is solid because we also have gold reserves and the gold revaluation account is more than 20 billion euros, which we may not count as equity, but it is there.
Interviewer: But you don't want to sell the gold?
Knot: No, we're definitely not going to sell.
Using the GRA to cover losses doesn’t require selling gold, it requires changing the accounting rules. The reason it’s now prohibited from being used is because once fully run down a declining gold price will cause the GRA to become negative, eating into DNB’s net worth. The very thing DNB is trying to avoid. In the interview Knot thus appoints the GRA as a solvency backstop, but this implies putting a floor under the gold price.
This February I published an article about the possibility of European central banks revaluing gold and subsequently using their GRAs to cancel sovereign bonds as debt relief for governments. My analysis was based on an email exchange between me and the German central bank in which they stated they don’t rule out this possibility. In October I revealed that European central banks have equalized, proportionally to GDP, their gold reserves among each other in the past decades. This was done for all to enjoy the same relative gain in their GRAs when revaluing gold. According to my assessment, revaluing gold will only be done in an insurmountable crisis. After the gold revaluation sovereign debt would be cancelled, the gold price stabilized, and the eurozone effectively moves towards a new version of a gold standard.
In the 1930s GRAs had been used for several purposes. After devaluing against gold central banks eventually re-pegged their currencies to gold at a higher price, leaving GRAs to be used as they saw fit. As far as I know, no central banker has openly discussed using a GRA—to cover its own losses or cancel sovereign bonds—since Bretton Woods. Remarkably, in Buitenhof it wasn’t the interviewer that brought up the GRA, it was Knot! Since the word is out, central banks in Europe officially stand ready to change the rules and use their GRAs to guarantee their own solvency. In addition, once the rules are changed, it allows them to revalue gold and bail-out their governments too.
In final, the current trend is clear: financial challenges, caused by unconventional monetary policy, lead to more focus on gold’s role in overcoming these challenges. And I will be closely monitoring these developments.
Astonishing response by Dutch central bank Governor Knot when his solvency is questioned due to coming losses: use gold revaluation account. pic.twitter.com/yIZXc1aRWH— Jan Nieuwenhuijs (@JanGold_) November 2, 2022
How is that any different than inflating away debt?
PS...I’ve never taken Econ 101
Debt is not an asset.
Gold is an asset.
It’s not. And it would empty out their coffers pretty darned quick.
You would be able to see all that gold moving to China from outset space. //sarcastic, but not kidding.
OK
Now I understand.
This is a Buy Gold thread.
Sorry I bothered you.
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Ok, as long as it’s not tungsten./s
I watched that video and still don’t know what the heck it is all about.
He didn’t provide any examples.
So if the Central Banks set the price of gold at $10,000/oz. what does that mean for us? Does the price of eggs go to $100/dozen? Does the average house price go to $5,000,000?
How much is an ounce of gold today?
Now consider what happens when a country revalues their gold to say, $10,000 an ounce?
Gold becomes wildly inflated to pay a nations debt. If you are hold an ounce of gold, what does that mean for you?
We chatter about going off fiat currency and back to a gold standard.
“If you are hold an ounce of gold, what does that mean for you?”
Well, if I had a few ounces of gold and gold was revalued to $10,000 or so an oz. then the first thing that governments would do would be like what FDR did and declare owning gold to be illegal and demand you sell it to the govt at the old (1700/oz +/-) price. You wouldn’t be able to trade it and the gold markets would be closed.
Going back to the gold standard will never happen with the likes of the Rothchilds/Rockefellers running the show.
Hmmm...
Let me see if I have this straight.
A nation accumulates gold at a very low price. Then they print money. Over many decades people KNOW that the nation has a supply of gold and they know what it is worth in the open market.
But the nation pretends that the gold is only worth what they paid for it. At the same time the nation prints additional currency and takes on debt to make it appear that everything is just rosy.
Then the nation finds that it must raise interest rates in an attempt to maintain the value of their currency. Otherwise holders of the currency experience declining value of the currency. Those holding the debt experience huge losses because the value of their debt is based on the interest rate they agreed to, but the new interest rate is much higher.
The nation experiences trouble selling new debt and their expenses for servicing existing debt balloons. The nation dare not raise taxes for fear of a depression.
Fortunately, the nation has gold reserves. Everybody knows that the value of these gold reserves has risen over many decades despite that the book value has been constant since its acquisition.
By the simple expedient of "revaluing" the gold, suddenly that nation's problems have been relieved, despite assurances that none of the gold will be sold. It's economic magic. The gold doesn't even have to exist.
What am I missing here?
Imagine that the assets in question were government buildings instead of gold. Imagine that the nation valued these buildings at what they cost to build. Now imagine the presumed benefit to the nation of valuing such buildings at their presumed present value, despite no intention of ever selling any such buildings. Why would any sane person imagine that the nation was more solvent simply by this change in "accounting"?
Explain how they revalue your house/property every 3 years? Your house or property did not change, but the value of it did. Especially over the last several years. Your asset increased in value...but nothing really changed on the original asset. You just pay more property tax. Equity is what changes, the same for those $35 ounces of gold you bought back at that ‘woods’ meeting.
That’s the accounting trick every central bank has been playing. You do not have to sell your home but you pay tax on the equity. They don’t have to sell the gold, they just revalue it to market rate.
Less than 1% of the general population owns any gold at all. It is all held in the Central Banks. An FDR event is not likely to happen. If something like FDR happens the average person will not care, they won’t care because they do not own it. Second they won’t care because they do not understand what happened. More likely is any mines will go under government control and people who own paper gold will lose in a scenario like you describe.
Those who own physical gold it will be a different scenario. They are not likely to come after less than 1% of the population. The FDR scenario made sense at that time, because everyone owned gold, because it was the currency along with silver. Real money, not fiat currency. Now virtually no one owns gold.
But I like this conversation on FR, because it demonstrates just how much we do not understand. We say our currency is backed by the ‘good faith and credit.’ Yet, there are central banks accumulating massive amounts of gold as a solvency backstop. To me solvency backstop is just a nice way of saying SHTF.
The question I still have is what happens in the greater economy if a revaluation happens? Does all the sovereign debt just disappear? Is the playing field suddenly leveled at the Central bank level? What happens to us peasants?
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