Posted on 10/20/2022 11:30:45 AM PDT by Signalman
Doug Schoen is a well respected pollster and is also a Democrat. When he tells you a Republican is going to win, he is not cheerleading, he’s just being honest.
In a new column written with Andrew Stein, Schoen is saying that this is going to be a wave election for Republicans.
This confirms the findings of several other polling outfits which are now showing numbers trending to Republicans.
Schoen and Stein write at the Wall Street Journal:
Brace Yourself for a Republican Wave
The Republican Party is on the cusp of a substantial midterm election victory that could rival their wins in 1994 and 2010.
There has been a 3-point swing to Republicans in generic-ballot polling in just the last month, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Democrats led by as much as 1.3 points in September, but as of Monday, Republicans were up by 1.8.
A late September ABC News/Washington Post poll found the Republican advantage concentrated where it’s needed most. The GOP had a 5-point lead among likely voters nationwide, but a 21-point margin in “competitive” congressional districts. Other battleground-district polls, from CBS News, Economist/YouGov and CNN, showed the GOP with a much narrower lead, but a consistent one…
If there are no upsets on either side and the toss-ups are evenly split, that brings Republicans to a 240-195 majority—a gain of 28 seats. A Republican sweep of the toss-up races would expand the majority to 259-176. That’s vanishingly unlikely, but so is a Democratic sweep of the toss-ups—which would still leave the GOP with a seven-seat majority…
Latest: Biden Scoffs At Suggestion That He's Tapping U.S. Oil Reserves For Political Reasons Before Midterms (VIDEO)
The Senate has become less prone to major shifts as voting patterns have tended to line up with those in presidential races. Since 2014, the Republicans have never held fewer than 50 seats or more than 54. But with the chamber divided 50-50, a net gain of a single seat would give the GOP control. RealClearPolitics projects the Republicans will gain two seats, in Georgia and Nevada, and hold their current seats, for a 52-seat majority.
As the midterms get closer, they look better and better for the GOP.
As voters shift their attention to the economy and crime, polls begin to hint at a major GOP advantage.https://t.co/ZZDj7RAuby
“Republicans pounce!”
When you have a poll saying it’s close in CT for senate and governor, you know a tsunami is coming...
Don't forget the late Pat Caddell.
Trafalgar, the least biased pollster, still shows a Democrat Senate with the Democrats gaining Pennsylvania and losing Nevada.
Schoen has withstood the test of time. If he thinks a 40 vote majority for the GOP is likely, that is reason to be optimistic.
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