Posted on 10/12/2022 3:03:23 PM PDT by Cathi
To put it simply, in the current standoff over Ukraine’s territory, Putin has the advantage as far as nuclear threats go. The ongoing brinkmanship there has revealed a serious misunderstanding on the part of some analysts and most of the media attempting to define the threats made by Biden and Putin, by relating it to the Cold War environment.
The problem is that in the realm of deterrence, the U.S. no longer has a robust nuclear response at the very low end of the weapons spectrum whereas Russia does (if their maintenance is up to par).
The U.S.’s ground-based tactical nuclear capability was retired in the early '90s following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Those who assume that Biden’s response to Russia’s potential use of nukes must entail using our own nukes must either be ignorant or have a death wish. This is because our only recourse would be to use high yield warheads resulting in destruction on a global scale.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Big "if".
“The U.S.’s ground-based tactical nuclear capability was retired in the early ‘90s following the collapse of the Soviet Union”
The reason we gave up tactical nukes is because we never found a case where they would be useful.
Enemy forces are unlikely to be cooperative and stand all in one place for long enough and far enough away from any of your own forces for such a weapon to make sense.
Putin’s advantage with nuclear weapons is that he’s crazy.
“Russia does (if their maintenance is up to par) Big “if”.”
That “If” is also a big risk. What happens if Russia launches a nuke and like so many of their other missiles it doesn’t go off?
Now Ukraine is nuclear armed.
Therein lies the problem with MAD.
Once someone is arrogant and stupid enough to detonate one, the rest of the world will not be far behind.
Use them or lose them.
I expect NK to become extremely stupid if the balloon goes up.
Pakistan and India will likely annihilate each other.
Who knows what Iran will attempt to do to Israel.
I’m not aware of any war gaming that ended with only a limited exchange, but I suppose it’s possible.
It’s going to take a miracle for many Americans Not to be killed with this crop of “leadership” we have. We’re living a disaster every day.
They would have come in handy in the Tora Bora mountains in Afghanistan
Biden has never had a grasp on reality it’s why he’s lied all his life he finished 78 in a class of 84 in law school his IQ never was good.
If he didn’t know how to take a drink of water someone would have to water him.
You are ignorant of the subject.
IF Russia has good nukes, and fires them off to Ukraine, the whole world is going to get ‘smoke’ from it, that is IF Russia has good nukes...
My opinion of Brainless Biden and his gal pal Peanut Butter legs, they are two peas that have rotted off the vine many years ago, they never knew anything, they never learned anything and they still don't know anything...
Obama wanted another term, his third, and who better to put there than them two...well I just pray that Russia doesn't have a good nuke, I'm not ready to die just yet...and hope none of you are either...
At least all those big shots who are making the global war decisions are going to be safe underground ... and their friends .. and family .. w 100 yrs of food ... in large cities .. w 10s of thousands to talk too
The country who sets the first one off will be the least expected to do so.
Alexander from The Duran was talking about an interesting article on Dancing With Bears which is very much worth reading in full
(1) was written before this recent Russian attacks on power plants had begun
(2) provided evidence that Ukraine’s ability to produce power had been declining since the beginning of this special military operations...down by 40%
(3) and offered no hope for the future and an expectation of Ukrainians fleeing West
The western military source again: “War is war, whether you want to use terms like hybrid war or proxy war. It means destroying the enemy’s capacity to make war. Shutting off the power in the rump Ukrainian state will do just that to the Ukrainians. If they then start to flee for refuge to Poland and Germany, this will be a disaster unparalleled in recent European history. Just the attendant collapse in telecommunications will make the place a madhouse. You can well imagine the rest. Already there are queues for water in Nikolaev, and who knows where else. How does queueing for water, if there is any, in temperatures of minus-20C to minus-40C sound? This won’t be like the blackouts from US sanctions and attacks in Cuba or Venezuela – there they didn’t have to worry about freezing to death, the pipes bursting, or irreparable damage being done to billions of dollars’ worth of pumping, electrical, and other equipment due to freezing.”
“How many people realize that a sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) circuit breaker, commonly used in electrical substations, requires an electric heating blanket to be functional in sub-zero weather? Most westerners don’t. They are common in high voltage substations which ultimately feed the grid lines with power. In the Ukrainian case, I suspect there is a mixture of those and older style oil circuit breakers (OCB), along with oil-filled large power transformers (LPT), which are essential to electrical distribution. And guess where most of the oil comes from to fill these devices?”
“I suspect that most of Zelensky’s officials and officials in the supporting EU governments have persuaded themselves with their own propaganda. They aren’t daring to think through these questions, any more than they care to understand that the housing of the pumps delivering their water and treating their sewage will freeze and split apart if they are not heated via electrical means. Even if the gas is on — and it won’t be — electricity is needed to ignite, then control, furnaces. How many of these officials understand the long lead times, compounded by manufacturing shutdowns due to high energy costs, which you must have to replace and restore everything?”
“Who then will ‘stand with Ukraine’ when the gas and electricity rationing and unpayable consumer bills roll over the Ukrainian border and into Poland, Germany, France, and the UK, as they are already doing?”
“The Russians have been hitting the Ukrainian electrical distribution system for months now. As we know, they started with the rail traction power yards which are largely branches of the wider electric grid. Now they have moved to the substations and so-called ‘thermal power’ plants, hitting them in what seems to be pellmell fashion. I expect that the Russians are gathering intelligence now on repair times, re-equipment availability, deliveries, repair crew composition and coordination.”
Source: https://transformers-magazine.com/
“So let’s imagine this. Winter arrives. The power is cut in Kharkov, Dniepropetrovsk, Pavlovsk, Nikolaev etc. and due to the unavailability of spares, repair crews, respite from attack, or all three, the outlook for the power outage is indefinite. What do people do? They migrate to where there is power, running water, heat etc… For millions this means west. So off they go. And when enough of them get there, bam! the power goes off there too.”
Source for enlarged view: https://eneken.ieej.or.jp — page 6.
Reading the grid maps of the Ukraine, the source says “it is obvious that the real vulnerability, in my estimation, lies in the approximately 88 substations for 330 kV distribution and 33 substations for 220 kV distribution. Note the nodes or junctions. Those are substations connecting the distribution lines which crisscross the Ukraine. These substations contain large power transformers, switchgear, DCS equipment [Distributed Control System] and other power quality and control equipment, spares etc. Widespread coordinated strikes on these substations will quickly overwhelm the Ukrainian ability to effect repairs and re-balance the loads on the generation stations. This will create a cascade effect whereby overloaded power plants, and distribution gear will ‘trip out’ over wide swathes of the country – if the protection between the Ukrainian and EU grids does not operate in time, or there is wild voltage/frequency oscillations there could be large interruptions in the EU countries being fed from Ukrainian sources.”
“Any repair efforts will also be severely hampered, if not crippled, if utility yards where spare cables and other gear, as well as vehicles (bucket and line trucks, cranes etc.) are stored and parked are struck. Personnel losses among the finite number of utility crew members due to follow-up attacks and the inevitable mishaps that come with interacting with damaged or compromised high voltage electrical equipment, will quickly mount. If the attacks are launched during the hard winter months, the impact will be exponential, increasingly unmanageable and catastrophic as the hours go by.”
RUSSIAN ARMY FIRES OLD SPARKY — US LOSES THE ELECTRIC WAR IN THE UKRAINE
"Russia does (if their maintenance is up to par)"
Big "if".
Highly unlikely since the collapse of the USSR. They know no one is likely to attack them so long as they stay in their box. So if they limited their foreign escapades, they'd have no need for nukular bombs. and no one would be the wiser they'd let their PMCS lapse.
But that plan doesn't account for Pootie-Poot going off the deep end and trying to retrieve a former Soviet satellite state by force.
Regardless, they're not likely to use them in the Ukraine in the first place because a burglar doesn't burn down the jewelry store before he tries to rob it. And then there's that whole "prevailing westerly wind" thing. Elsewhere, maybe, but not in the Ukraine.
With about 6000 of them. Russia has a few that will work.
Lets just say enough, that will work.
Yeah, who wants to pull the trigger on a 50 year old nuclear device?
Well the Soviet Union exploded plenty of nukes in the 50s’ and 60s’ so it’s insane anyone would even think of nuclear war over Ukraine. So what if 10% of ours or theirs don’t work? The other 90% could result in humanity’s extinction.
“well I just pray that Russia doesn’t have a good nuke, I’m not ready to die just yet...and hope none of you are either...”
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Not that anyone is interested in my opinion on this subject; but after having extensively researched everything I could get my hands on about Putin and Russia I have absolutely no concern that he is going to use nukes unless we do.
And even though my opinion of Biden could not be lower the Deep State doesn’t even want to use American troops for any of their “dirty deeds done dirt cheap” anymore. Mercs, all the way; proxy wars. Deep State will not use nukes that could kill us all.
I understand everyone’s concern; I just don’t share it.
More wishing and hoping by clueless civilians and foreign enemies that leftist politicians will influence Defense to weaken defense. That’s not going to happen.
Our domestic problems are domestic problems to be solved at home. No evil empire or other foreign dictatorship will solve them for us.
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