Posted on 09/22/2022 6:10:19 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
Hurricane Fiona (was) the strongest hurricane of the Atlantic season, and now forecast models show a developing storm could become a MONSTROUS threat to the US Gulf Coast by next week.
An area of disorganized activity a couple hundred miles east of the the eastern reaches of the Caribbean Sea will likely become the next tropical depression — named Hermine — in the next few days, maybe even the next few hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.
This small cluster of storms has meteorologists’ attention because both American and European forecasting models have consistently showed them developing into a tropical system and entering into the Gulf of Mexico — though the models don’t have the best track record when forecasting that far out.
“The fact that nearly every computer model out there develops this into a westward-moving hurricane is absolutely concerning,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.
There’s a 70% chance it becomes a tropical depression within the next 48 hours, and there’s a 90% chance of development within the next five days, the hurricane center says. So development is likely — but where it’s going is still somewhat up for debate.
“Well, there’s a lot of uncertainty right now,” Maria Torres, hurricane center spokesperson, told CNN. “But yes, it’s something that we are keeping an eye on and that we are closely monitoring as we get into the weekend and early next week.”
Over the next several days, the disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands — at the Caribbean’s eastern edge — and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later in the week, the hurricane center said Wednesday morning.
By late next week, both models show the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico.
The American model shows the storm as a large and possibly major hurricane. It shows it making landfall in the Panhandle of Florida by September 30. The European model has it hitting the southern section of Florida a day earlier but as a much smaller but nearly as intense storm.
If the storm system makes it into the Gulf like the forecast models say, the conditions are ripe for development.
“The water is extremely warm, and the atmosphere is very conducive for rapid development,” Myers said.
The conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are favorable for the system to strengthen, and it will do that very rapidly, Torres told CNN.
It has been a slow start to what was forecast to be an above-average hurricane season. Only one storm has made landfall in a US territory, and no hurricane has made landfall or threatened the contiguous United States.
Now, a week past the peak of hurricane season, the tropics seem to have woken up, and forecasters are concerned people have let down their guard.
“After a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season has ratcheted up quickly,” Phil Klotzbach, research scientist at Colorado State University (CSU), tweeted.
“People tend to lower their guard and think, oh, yeah, we’re out of the woods,” Torres said. “But in reality, the season continues. We are still in September; we still have October to go. Anything that forms over either the Atlantic or the Caribbean is something that we need to keep monitoring very closely.”
The Atlantic hurricane season ends November 30.
Four times a day, the American forecast model and the European model spit out an updated forecast. And after each run, meteorologists will tweet what they think will happen.
No matter what, if you live in the Caribbean, Florida and other states along the Gulf Coast, pay attention and watch what the National Hurricane Center says once the storm is strong enough to be named. The track that it issues at that time will give an increasingly good indication of what is most likely to happen.
what fake weather people dont have anything to do so now they are hoping for something really really bad???
LOL!
They sure are. :(
The beatings will continue until morale improves!
Yeah, I heard the propaganda feed on the radio last night. They say we could hit a recession later this year. News is always fun when you don’t have to abide by actual definitions.
Thunderstorm Xavier dropped a couple of inches of rain west of Tucson the other day.
Roman expert from Louisiana
No fair! We had a random, localized thunderstorm the other day. It lasted for an hour and produced a full INCH of rain.
It never got a name. :(
I shall call it, ‘Chad.’ *SMIRK*
Right. “Monstrous” is one of those precise scientific terms.
This will keep the weathermen happy. They love hurricanes and root for them to get bigger and bigger,
Great. Solar panels in a hurricane. I can see them flying by the window already.
And the one that follows shall be called ‘Stacy.’ Then a smaller one named ‘Becky’ will follow the next day.
I hope Gavin names the sixth heat wave after himself: FYG Newsome. The Y is you and the G is Gavin. I will leave it to the Californicators to decide what the F is.
It’s stupid to take joy in these things. I remember meeting people at work whose homes were destroyed by Katrina. I’m pretty sure they weren’t happy about that.
Okay! That works! LOL
In North Atlantic is named TS Gaston and will not affect USA. Venezuela has a strong storm north of it but has no name yet...expected to b named in couple days. This TS will become a hurricane in GoM next wk, like M or T. It is reported that 2 tropical disturbances are east in Atlantic and the name Hermine will be given.
No kidding!
Actually, the National Hurricane Center is one of the things the Government does that actually works correctly. BUT, their forecasts are always 5 days from any events. 10 days is too far out.
I think it is because the NHC is in Miami, and, they folks there know if they get something wrong, not just other folks, but, their families could die.
I think you are right about other Government agencies though. :(
Local forecast for 9/22 - sunny 80 degrees. It is 10.30. Still no sun and rain. LOL!
Arizona weatherpeople haven’t actually started naming monsoon thunderstorms (yet), but they’ll be On Beyond Zebra pretty quickly if they do.
Mariah, Mariah. They call the wind Mariah.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.