Posted on 09/12/2022 8:46:31 AM PDT by Cathi
Latest update from The New Atlas focusing on the realities of Ukraine's recent tactical victory vs. the enormous structural cost that likely leads to speeding up to Ukraine's eventual strategic failure.
Ukraine lost 5-7 brigades (20,000 to 28,000 men) in just that short 10 day period of "counter offensive." Makes the interesting point that Russia's decision to withdraw eliminated Ukraine's ability to significantly reduce Russia's manpower or weaponry. By enticing Ukraine to come out of their covered defensive positions and into the open it has provided an easier target for Russia to attack by air and artillery Ukraine's stretched out thin forces in Kharkov which is what Russia is now doing.
Interesting clips of WW11 documentary of Hiltler's similar attempt to throw everything into a last ditch effort to get a success and how it actually resulted in speeding up his defeat.
Very enjoyable to get to see the WW11 clips.
I prefer the Slava Z channel for the Russian view.
“At 9:00 the enemy has not yet taken the city. During the night there were two attempts to enter Balakleya from the western direction, but were repulsed by Russian forces. Our divisions remain in the city.
In the morning hostilities around Shevchenkove resumed. The enemy is trying to take control of the Chuguev-Kupyansk highway.
To the south of Balakliya, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to try to reach the crossroads in the area of the settlements of Veseleye and Kunye in order to cut the supply arteries of our Izyum group.
Our aviation, artillery and reserves are working. The situation is difficult, but by morning it could have been catastrophic, but no. The guys are holding on.
In some areas, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to advance 20, and somewhere - 30 kilometers deep into the territory under our control over the past day. There is no need to sprinkle ashes on your head, you need to prepare a counteroffensive, taking advantage of the fact that the enemy has broken away from his artillery.
The current victory for Kyiv carries not only a tactical, but also an informational burden. Especially against the backdrop of today’s summit of the Western allies at the US airbase in Ramstein, Germany, at which Washington is expected to announce the supply of $675 million worth of weapons to the Ukrainian army. For this event, Kyiv needed to show at least some success in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the use of the supplied weapons . And at least Ukraine fulfilled the task.”
“”Zelensky supported Zaluzhny’s proposal to suspend the counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine and strengthen the strike on Izium. All free reserves and part of the air defense, from near Kyiv and the Dnieper, are being transferred to Kharkiv, which will become the main military and logistics hub of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Ukrainian TG channels write. .”
After the Queen’s death, they said: “Reserve formations of the Russian armed forces enter the Kharkiv region, fighting continues along the entire line of contact.
A group of Russian troops begins an operation to defend the city of Kupyansk, this is a strategic settlement, in the event of a breakthrough in defense, the city of Izyum will be surrounded.”
A claim of Victory.... “Forests near Kharkov are littered with thousands of corpses of Ukrainian militants
Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not conducting any counteroffensives. All statements by the Ukrainian leadership are pure propaganda for the sake of obtaining new Western assistance.”
By 1:43 am...
“9:30 a.m. according to the situation.
1. In the Kupyansk area, the activity of the enemy’s DRG was repelled at night. The city is completely under the control of the RF Armed Forces.
2. In the area of Shevchenkovo and in Shevchenkovo itself, hostilities continued.
3. The situation in the area of Balakleya and east of Balakleya is not clear. There are reports of some fighting in the Balakleya area.
4. The infiltration of the enemy continues in the direction of the Izyum highway. The enemy maintains high activity of DRGs thrown forward.
5. According to a number of reports, rather serious reserves of the RF Armed Forces have entered the direction.
6. There is a continuation of the transfer of reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine through Chuguev in the direction of Balakleya and Shevchenkove.”
And another claim of Victory.
“On September 7, our intelligence discovered an accumulation of enemy forces and means in the Serebryanka area, which is near Seversk (the territory of the DPR, temporarily occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine). According to estimates, the enemy pulled up to 2.5 thousand manpower, as well as military equipment (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled guns). According to radio intercepts, it included many foreign mercenaries. Perhaps this grouping was supposed to strike from the south in the direction of Kupyansk yesterday at dawn. However, on the night of September 7-8, our artillery and aviation inflicted a fire defeat on her. Now they will never go anywhere.”
A claim: “The positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine recaptured by the Wagner PMC units during the assault on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut (Artemovsk).
Yesterday, in that direction, the enemy tried to play a counterattack, but was defeated and counterattacked in response. As a result, six prisoners of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the advancement of the “musicians” a little deeper into the industrial zone of the city.
Also, after the cleansing of the Codema, success is gradually developing from the south side of Bakhmut. The grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffers losses, but tries to grab literally every meter.”
5:15 am. Report a big battle “A big battle begins in Kharkiv region:
▪️Army transfers reserves to the front
▪️ Residents of the Kharkiv region due to the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are evacuated to the LPR and Russia - the regional military administration.”
Mass Russian reinforcements sent in... “A MASS TRANSFER OF ARMORED EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL OF THE RF AF TO THE KHARKOV REGION IS URGENTLY GOING ON.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation uses Mi-26 helicopters to reinforce the Russian grouping near Kupyansk and Izyum. Reserves are also suitable on the ground.”
First mention of Izyum being in danger. 5:54 am
“Battle for Izyum: a huge convoy of Russian military equipment is moving towards the Izyum direction
The Russian armed forces are gathering additional forces to repel the counteroffensive of Ukrainian militants in the Izyum direction”
“Additional forces are now being pulled to the front from both sides, and the organization of logistics is of great importance. The speed of putting the reserves into action will determine the further success of the parties.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, of course, will strive to capture Kupyansk and cut off Izyum, supplementing this with strikes from the Izyum and Slavic directions.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will strive to ensure the defense of Kupyansk and stable communication with Izyum, if possible, trying to move on to pushing the enemy to the west.”
“At 9:00 the enemy has not yet taken the city. During the night there were two attempts to enter Balakleya from the western direction, but were repulsed by Russian forces. Our divisions remain in the city.”
Someone should tell the Russian military that. They have admitted on national TV the city was overrun. They acknowledge pulling all their troops out of there.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/10/russia-announces-troop-pullback-from-ukraines-kharkiv-area-after-surprising-offensive.html
So who are you going to believe. Slava Z channel, or the Russian military?
Helicopter reinforcements rushed in...
“Massive air transfer of reinforcements near Kupyansk and Izyum. Several landing points have been prepared. Mi-26 helicopters deliver armored vehicles and personnel. The fighters are sent into battle to push the enemy back and prevent further breakthroughs.”
Acknowledgement the breakthrough has reached Kupyansk.
“The situation in the area of Kupyansk. On the outskirts of the city there is a fight.”
A vague story of the battle: “Reported from Izyum:
“Our people have taken the settlements of Sinikha, Senkovo, Vorontsovka, Fedorovka, Lesnaya Stenka, surrounded by allied forces, combat assault formations are being introduced and territories are being cleaned from the inside and with mini boilers!””
Brave group sent in. “ Russian troops of the “Brave” group are moving in the direction of Kharkov.”
Hmmm. ‘especially if we not be stupid’.
“According to the Kupyansk defensive phase of the Kharkov battle. There are no battles in the city itself yet, small groups of crests are trying to probe our defenses, moving from the south from the side of the Senkovo settlement. It is likely that they will direct the pontoon to Kruglyakovka. Early in the morning, Khokhols heavily fired at the Borovoe settlement.
We, in turn, are actively working with aviation and missiles, very strong blows are being dealt to Kharkov today. The discovered accumulations of equipment and personnel of the enemy are destroyed by army and bomber aircraft, the RF Armed Forces are pulling up reserves. The enemy still has the initiative, but soon the cumulative effect of attacks on columns, warehouses and places of deployment will make itself felt, the main thing is for us to endure until this moment and hold the enemy.
The enemy threw into the offensive near Kherson and Kharkov the most combat-ready units, which he had been preparing for several months. Therefore, despite the failures of the first days of the Kharkov battle, in the future we can achieve good results, especially if we do not be stupid.”
Big battle in Balakliya.
“On the eastern part in Balakliya, the Airborne Forces and the National Guard of the Armed Forces of Ukraine entered the battle and cannot take the city.”
Another report : “The 93rd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “Cold Yar” in their social networks reports on the fiercest battles near Kupyansk, where significant forces of the Russian Armed Forces have been deployed by air and land.
Separately, the uninterrupted work of Russian aviation and the appearance of well-armed fighters of the Wagner PMC are noted at the fron”
And where does he get that number? By all accounts actual combat was little as the Russians demonstratably dropped the equipment and ran east as quickly as possible.
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