Posted on 09/03/2022 7:21:52 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods
Most of what I have seen put active military between 300000 to 400000 with 900000 reserves ie those who have been through basic training but not active so hundreds of thousands of losses still sounds unlikely
I would put China at the top of that list
—”Dude, good news!”
Such a vlatnich and doesn’t have a couple of rubles to rub together?
Maybe after you are paid you may receive a few kopeka?
Maybe.
Actually I could see Turkey and China allying with each other.
Yes, but I was looking for a battle more similar in nature - similar size forces with a similar objective - A narrow thrust at a preceived weak point with a drive to the sea to split the enemy force. Hard to get numbers, much smaller than a Kursk, or a Stalingrad. On reflection, perhaps Nordwind is closer in scale to what is going on right now.
Market garden was on a much larger scale, as well, but the same type offensive.
And we know how Market Garden, the Bulge, and Nordwind ended up for the attacking force.
One thing I haven’t heard the ‘experts’ discuss is the relative strength of the forces. I did read one report where the Ukraines claimed that they matched the Russians in strength in the south. Which sounds ok on the surface, but I’ve always been taught that the attacking force needs at least a 3-1, and preferably a 5-1 advantage against a defending force in prepared positions.
Turkey is definitely ascendant on the world stage.
And with all of those Muslims in Europe, guess who they will support when Turkey makes their move on Europe?
Given that the Ukes are facing an existential threat, the premise of this article is unlikely.
Define ‘victory’ !
The conflict is most likely to result in a stalemate. With the Russians holding the two break away Republics and the Crimea.
Unclear as to how much additional ground they will be able gain and hold.
The Russian troops in Kherson appear to be in a bit of a pickle.
“I’m sure that would have been one of the goals of taking Gallipoli, of course the other was having a path to The Black Sea to aid the Russians.”
Years ago I read that then First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill conceived of the Gallipoli action and pushed for it primarily for access to the Black Sea. Relief of pressure on the Suez would have been a secondary benefit of a successful attack at Gallipoli. His primary concern was propping up the Russians in order to ensure Germany fought a two front war.
When his baby fell on it’s ass Churchill was forced to resign as First Lord. He then enlisted in the army and was sent to France.
As great as Churchill was, he was no military genius. He also thought the quickest way to defeat the Nazis was by going through the 'soft underbelly' of Italy, only to find out it turned out to be a 'tough old gut', he originally scoffed at the idea of a Normandy invasion.
Those numbers get tossed around a lot, and are often misinterpreted.
The estimates of combat power necessary to achieve success are very localized. It is entirely possible for two forces to be equal in strength across a broader front, but if one side economizes forces in most of that sector, and concentrates at the point of attack, it can achieve a advantageous force ratio even though the front as a whole as is balanced. Factors like mobility, security, and surprise are critical in achieving those force ratios at the precise point of attack.
Total was about 600k counting everything. https://news.yahoo.com/better-trained-better-equipped-know-193749574.html
Bear in mind that that is not a static number. New troops are recruited and sent to the front on a continuous basis. The “losses” include the severely wounded. The number is quite believable, but I hope it is too high. the AFU is being used as cannon fodder.
I seen that, too. I’ve used 600k as a more conservative number, but I believe you are actually closer to the right number.
Cranked, TR, along with others, is a troll. There is never a substantive post indicating any actual knowledge of the situation. Just posting of taunts and junk articles from the MSM, British tabloids, etc. He doesn’t know anything and doesn’t want to know anything. I suspect he’s paid.
This “counter-offensive”, which is a disaster (including the dramatically failed commando action at NPP), was started because of political pressure. Zaluzhny argued strongly against it because he knew that under the circumstances it would be a fiasco, but Zelensky overruled him because there is a meeting scheduled for 9/8 with Western arms suppliers, and Zelensky needs to show continued supply of weapons will turn the tide. The AFU’s “Charge of the Light Brigade” will probably continue through the meeting, unless someone says the losses are simply to disasterous to be allowed to continue.
“As great as Churchill was, he was no military genius.”
Not even close. And a tough old gut is right.
He should have looked at a topographic map and noticed what a cluster screw attacking Italy would be. Or he could have taken the lessons from WWI and learned something. Mountainous Italy was MADE for defensive war. The Germans used the terrain very effectively with the Gothic and Gustav lines.
They could have taken Sicily and pinned down every German in Italy without invading. They could have taken the men and material used in the Italian campaign and invaded France earlier with a more overwhelming force.
Why Churchill was so enamored of invading Italy I will never understand.
I understand that what matters is the ratio at the schwepunkt, but if you cannabalize the rest of your line, the penetration is going to get sealed off, or a general offensive will mean the attacking force needs to pull back. Unless, of course, you want to imitate the Germans at Stalingrad.
Those are roughly the same kinds of numbers you see on US backchannel sources on the internet. Ukraine is going to be the planet’s one-stop shop for mail order brides, i.e. there aren’t going to be any men of marriageable age left in the place for at least one generation.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.