Posted on 06/30/2022 4:06:14 PM PDT by Capt. Tom
The market's view of these travel and leisure companies is growing more pessimistic. What happened The terrible week for cruise line stocks continued on Thursday. Not only is the broader market's decline dragging down their share prices, but there are also fears that the companies are seeing pricing pressure for tickets.
So what On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Jamie Rollo said in a report that he was worried that cruise line companies could ultimately face insolvency if their business conditions don't improve soon. And on Thursday, Citi leisure and travel sector analyst James Hardiman said during an interview on Yahoo! Finance Live that cruise companies are facing "some pushback on pricing," especially as ships get closer to operating at full capacity.
At the same time, operators are facing higher expenses due to rising labor costs, high fuel prices, and rising interest rates. So it's understandable that the market is skeptical about their futures.
When the broader market falls, as it did in early trading Thursday, high volatility stocks tend to take more exaggerated tumbles. That's another piece of what we're seeing here.
Now what There's a lot of noise in the market Thursday and it's hard to decipher what's real and what's not. But I think it's clear that all the players in the cruise industry will face some serious challenges over the next year.
It's possible that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, and with inflation at a 40-year high, pressures could persist for cruise lines on both the revenue and expense fronts. That's not good, because these companies are already burning cash and have high debt loads.
The market seems to be realizing that the future looks pretty bleak for cruise lines, and that it would take a massive economic recovery to change that outlook. I don't anticipate the macroeconomic picture will get significantly better in the next few quarters, so it may be years before we see these companies generating positive cash flow.
By the time they recover, it's entirely possible that they'll have to restructure their debts. And downward spirals can happen when borrowing costs rise as stock prices fall, leaving companies paying higher costs to raise the funds they require to run their businesses. If a company can't get to positive cash flow and pay down debt, it can wind up in real trouble. I think we're there with cruise lines, and the market may be realizing the same thing.
What concerns me about cruise lines is they are so far in debt, that it looks to me like they are going to have to reorganize.(Chapter 11 Bankruptcy)
In spite of all the pent up demand, I believe like the author, eventually their creditors will put them into reorganizing. -Tom
These cruise lines must be getting crushed by the diesel prices.
“What concerns me about cruise lines is they are so far in debt, that it looks to me like they are going to have to reorganize.(Chapter 11 Bankruptcy)”
Agree, and I thought they’d collapse over a year ago. Surprised, though, that investors/banks are even willing to lend to them, as they’re totally at the mercy of Fauchi.
Let them keep talking about more booster shots required to travel, and see who’s willing to book
( not me)
The covid testing and proof of vac will be gone by September.
P&O cruise line is already doing a limited number of no proof of vac or pre testing cruises to establish the safety.
The unsecured bonds aren’t trading at levels indicating a high probability of Chapter 11. While that could change, they did raise a lot of capital during the pandemic. Bonds were refinanced and billions in stock were issued. My guess is a lot of window dressing took place - to remove losers from portfolios before quarter end mutual fund reporting, when holdings have to be disclosed.
I worked as an AB and third officer for American Hawaiian Cruises ship the Indepdence, an old American Export Line ship.
In the late 1990’s the company took on debt to build two coast wise ships and two major cruise ships to replace the Independece and Constitution. The company went out of business just after 9/11 but their cash flows from operations had been declining for sometime and when all the flight to Hawaii were cancelled, the company just ran out of cash to pay the bills.
[Surprised, though, that investors/banks are even willing to lend to them, as they’re totally at the mercy of Fauchi.]
ping for cruise line info. -Tom
[I worked as an AB and third officer for American Hawaiian Cruises ship the Indepdence, an old American Export Line ship.
In the late 1990’s the company took on debt to build two coast wise ships and two major cruise ships to replace the Independece and Constitution. The company went out of business just after 9/11 but their cash flows from operations had been declining for sometime and when all the flight to Hawaii were cancelled, the company just ran out of cash to pay the bills.]
How about the airlines? If I can’t get a flight without it being cancelled, why would I buy a cruise ticket?
Gee and I have a cabin available.
But airline tickets to embarkation point......
Plus the jab? Dunno
No jab
Everyone in that fight will be banned for life by all cruise lines. The lines share the information on bad customers like Vegas casinos share photos of card sharks. Those idiots better be glad the the next port was New York. If they’d fought earlier they’d have been deboarded in Bermuda and had to find their way home. In some cases criminal charges are filed in the port under that nations laws.
I was on a cruise where woman slapped a member of the wait staff who disrespected her in some way. Royal Caribbean left her and her companion in the Cozumel.
All according to the green new deal plan. Those cruise ships have a great big carbon footprint.
I’m keeping mine. They will go back up. I may even buy more. I did last week.
I am on schedule to book 54 more cruises in next 14 years.
Cruises are never going to go out of business. Cruise companies can go out of business. Then other entrepreneurs will buy the ships and continue cruising.
On my last cruise in April, there was no mandate to wear masks. And I am hearing the vaccination requirement will go away in September.
Last of the state vax and test sites are closing soon in my area.
I have witnessed a few bankruptcies, and have been amazed how the people going bankrupt can lie about the companies prospect right up to the bankruptcy, or massive layoffs. -Tom
Not I, for sure.
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