Disinformation, Sgt. Schultz, and Central Banking

American Thinker ^ | 21 Jun, 2022 | Christopher Chantrill

[MtnClimber]

If the elite's computer models can't do a decent job on forecasting inflation, how come we should put any faith in your climate models or your accusations of "disinformation?"

Wouldn't you know, the august central bankers at the Bank of England just admitted that they "underestimated" inflation, as inflation in the UK heads north of 11 percent.

Just like our own august central bankers at the Federal Reserve Board who were telling us that inflation was "transitory" until the day before yesterday.

I have a question for you noble rulers. If your computer models can't do a decent job on forecasting inflation, how come we should put any faith in your climate models or your accusations of "disinformation?"

I have a feeling that you guys "know nothing" more than Sgt. Schultz, who made sure never to know anything that might shorten his lunch break.

I think that even Col. Klink would suspect something was cocked-up on the inflation front, when the S&P rose 40 percent in two years from January 2020 to its peak in January 2022. And the S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index has risen 39 percent from January 2020 to March 2022 with no peak in sight just yet.

Just sayin', but the M2 money supply has increased by 40 percent between January 2020 and May 2022.

I am "shocked, shocked" that the 40 percent number is shared between stocks, real estate, and M2. Any gambling going on, Capt. Renault?

[MtnClimber]

[fruser1]

modelS

If it was accurate, there would only be ONE model and everyone would use it.

[sauropod]

.

[alexander_busek]

If it was accurate, there would only be ONE model and everyone would use it.

To be fair, a model is only as valid as it is useful.

In real estate, for example, when assessing the value of an improved property, there are several different models one can employ.

One can calculate the current cost to now build an identical house from scratch; one can compare the prices of similar, recently-sold houses in the vicinity; one can use a house price index calculator (based on mortgages of comparable properties in the same area); one could conceivably strap prospective buyers to a gurney and use something like the Voight-Kampff test ("Bladerunner") to determine their emotional reaction when listening to you describe your house.

Regards,