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The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model: Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It.
Rand Corporation ^ | January 1, 2016 | Christopher Paul and Miriam Matthews

Posted on 06/06/2022 2:06:36 PM PDT by Widget Jr

Since its 2008 incursion into Georgia (if not before), there has been a remarkable evolution in Russia's approach to propaganda. This new approach was on full display during the country's 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula. It continues to be demonstrated in support of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Syria and in pursuit of nefarious and long-term goals in Russia's “near abroad” and against NATO allies.

In some ways, the current Russian approach to propaganda builds on Soviet Cold War–era techniques, with an emphasis on obfuscation and on getting targets to act in the interests of the propagandist without realizing that they have done so. In other ways, it is completely new and driven by the characteristics of the contemporary information environment. Russia has taken advantage of technology and available media in ways that would have been inconceivable during the Cold War. Its tools and channels now include the Internet, social media, and the evolving landscape of professional and amateur journalism and media outlets.

Distinctive Features of the Contemporary Model for Russian Propaganda

  1. High-volume and multichannel
  2. Rapid, continuous, and repetitive
  3. Lacks commitment to objective reality
  4. Lacks commitment to consistency.

We characterize the contemporary Russian model for propaganda as “the firehose of falsehood” because of two of its distinctive features: high numbers of channels and messages and a shameless willingness to disseminate partial truths or outright fictions. In the words of one observer, “[N]ew Russian propaganda entertains, confuses and overwhelms the audience.”

Contemporary Russian propaganda has at least two other distinctive features. It is also rapid, continuous, and repetitive, and it lacks commitment to consistency.

++++++++++

Russian Propaganda Is High-Volume and Multichannel

Russian propaganda is produced in incredibly large volumes and is broadcast or otherwise distributed via a large number of channels. This propaganda includes text, video, audio, and still imagery propagated via the Internet, social media, satellite television, and traditional radio and television broadcasting. The producers and disseminators include a substantial force of paid Internet “trolls” who also often attack or undermine views or information that runs counter to Russian themes, doing so through online chat rooms, discussion forums, and comments sections on news and other websites.4 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that “there are thousands of fake accounts on Twitter, Facebook, LiveJournal, and vKontakte” maintained by Russian propagandists. According to a former paid Russian Internet troll, the trolls are on duty 24 hours a day, in 12-hour shifts, and each has a daily quota of 135 posted comments of at least 200 characters.

++++++++++

Russian Propaganda Is Rapid, Continuous, and Repetitive

Contemporary Russian propaganda is continuous and very responsive to events. Due to their lack of commitment to objective reality (discussed later), Russian propagandists do not need to wait to check facts or verify claims; they just disseminate an interpretation of emergent events that appears to best favor their themes and objectives. This allows them to be remarkably responsive and nimble, often broadcasting the first “news” of events (and, with similar frequency, the first news of nonevents, or things that have not actually happened). They will also repeat and recycle disinformation. The January 14, 2016, edition of Weekly Disinformation Review reported the reemergence of several previously debunked Russian propaganda stories, including that Polish President Andrzej Duda was insisting that Ukraine return former Polish territory, that Islamic State fighters were joining pro-Ukrainian forces, and that there was a Western-backed coup in Kiev, Ukraine’s capital.

Sometimes, Russian propaganda is picked up and rebroadcast by legitimate news outlets; more frequently, social media repeats the themes, messages, or falsehoods introduced by one of Russia’s many dissemination channels.

++++++++++

Russian Propaganda Makes No Commitment to Objective Reality

It may come as little surprise that the psychology literature supports the persuasive potential of high-volume, diverse channels and sources, along with rapidity and repetition. These aspects of Russian propaganda make intuitive sense. One would expect any influence effort to enjoy greater success if it is backed by a willingness to invest in additional volume and channels and if its architects find ways to increase the frequency and responsiveness of messages. This next characteristic, however, flies in the face of intuition and conventional wisdom, which can be paraphrased as “The truth always wins.”

Contemporary Russian propaganda makes little or no commitment to the truth. This is not to say that all of it is false. Quite the contrary: It often contains a significant fraction of the truth.

++++++++++

Russian Propaganda Is Not Committed to Consistency

The final distinctive characteristic of Russian propaganda is that it is not committed to consistency. First, different propaganda media do not necessarily broadcast the exact same themes or messages. Second, different channels do not necessarily broadcast the same account of contested events. Third, different channels or representatives show no fear of “changing their tune.” If one falsehood or misrepresentation is exposed or is not well received, the propagandists will discard it and move on to a new (though not necessarily more plausible) explanation. One example of such behavior is the string of accounts offered for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. Russian sources have offered numerous theories about how the aircraft came to be shot down and by whom, very few of which are plausible.27 Lack of commitment to consistency is also apparent in statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin. For example, he first denied that the “little green men” in Crimea were Russian soldiers but later admitted that they were. Similarly, he at first denied any desire to see Crimea join Russia, but then he admitted that that had been his plan all along.

++++++++++

What Can Be Done to Counter the Firehose of Falsehood?

Experimental research in psychology suggests that the features of the contemporary Russian propaganda model have the potential to be highly effective. Even those features that run counter to conventional wisdom on effective influence (e.g., the importance of veracity and consistency) receive some support in the literature.

If the Russian approach to propaganda is effective, then what can be done about it? We conclude with a few thoughts about how NATO, the United States, or other opponents of the firehose of falsehood might better compete. The first step is to recognize that this is a nontrivial challenge....

We are not optimistic about the effectiveness of traditional counterpropaganda efforts...

Forewarning is perhaps more effective than retractions or refutation of propaganda that has already been received. The research suggests two possible avenues:

In practice, getting in front of misinformation and raising awareness of misinformation might involve more robust and more widely publicized efforts to “out” Russian propaganda sources and the nature of their efforts.


TOPICS: Computers/Internet; Conspiracy; Education; History
KEYWORDS: angryneoconsonfr; bidenpuffers; bidensbuttboys; bidenworshippers; blueandyellowdrank; cccp; chechens; chechnya; chicoms; china; clownworld; communism; dailymailisrussian; deathtocccp; deathtoccp; deathtochechnya; deathtoputin; deathtorussia; deathtoussr; deathtoxi; delphitechnique; disinformation; fakenews; hateamericafirst; neocondupes; neoconned; neoconneddupes; neocons4biden; neokoolaid; pedos4biden; pedosforputin; propaganda; putin; putin4ussr; putinacommie; putinlovertrollsonfr; putinlovescommunism; putinpufferparade; putinsbuttboys; putinworshippers; randcorporation; russia; russianaggression; russiandailymail; scottritter; sovietreunion; soviettrollsonfr; sovietunion; thedelphitechnique; ukraine; ukraineislosing; ukrainicorns; ussr; warofthekeywords; winniethexi; xifanclub; xisbuttboys; zotchicomtrolls; zotcommietrolls; zotdaglobalisttrolls; zotsoviettrolls; zottheneocontrolls; zottherussiantrolls; zotthesorostrolls
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To: DesertRhino; CarolinaReaganFan

https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4069108/posts?page=13#13


21 posted on 06/06/2022 2:42:21 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: Widget Jr

It’s. Amazing how many apologists for Russian propaganda we have here at. FR.


22 posted on 06/06/2022 2:42:33 PM PDT by lonestar67 (America is exceptional)
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To: McGruff

“Ukraine is winning the propaganda war. Not even close.”

No, you and your comrades have Ukraine beat all to hell in the propaganda department. Ukraine is amateurish compared to you guys.


23 posted on 06/06/2022 2:46:51 PM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: Widget Jr

https://amgreatness.com/2022/06/05/the-sovietization-of-american-life/


24 posted on 06/06/2022 3:01:54 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Contempt for pre-born human life breeds contempt for post-born human life.)
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To: Widget Jr
"No matter how bad the U.S. press is, the Russian press is always worse."

On that you're 100% wrong. I hear how evil and racist I am every day on the news and Europeans are disappearing from American television broadcasts and commercials at a rapid rate.

Diversity is strength, white people are evil, and perverts are glorious.

25 posted on 06/06/2022 3:14:23 PM PDT by WMarshal (Neocons and leftists are the same species of vicious rat.)
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To: Widget Jr
Ah lying, let's see... Oh here it is!

US Officials Admit They’re Literally Just Lying To The Public About Russia

26 posted on 06/06/2022 3:17:01 PM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion (Fraud vitiates everything. )
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To: kiryandil
You haven't been here very long Excuse me?

https://freerepublic.com/~widgetjr/: "I've lurked here years, back when 56Kb modems and bailing wire were used for internet connections."

I knew about how the Delphi method could be used and abused, and how its abuse was exploited years ago. You can find discussion and complaints about it in old newsgroups posts.

The Delphi Method is a consensus and decision making method in controlled group settings. It is not about propaganda in mass media at all.

Much is what is blamed on Delphi, is really just those in charge of a discussion rigging it and using accomplices in the audience. Just like every CNN townhall meeting with "average" Americans.

27 posted on 06/06/2022 3:19:28 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: ought-six
"No, you and your comrades have Ukraine beat all to hell in the propaganda department. Ukraine is amateurish compared to you guys."

Do you want some cheese with that whineought-six? You've gotten kind of bitchy since the Ukes are undeniably getting their aZZes kicked and our $40 billion disappears into many leftist pockets.

28 posted on 06/06/2022 3:19:55 PM PDT by WMarshal (Neocons and leftists are the same species of vicious rat.)
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To: kiryandil
#19. The article is from the "Rand Corporation", a U.S. think tank.

Posts complain about the "Daily Mail", a British tabloid.

I can see how they are easily confused with each other. /s/

29 posted on 06/06/2022 3:25:12 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: Widget Jr

I posted this on a duplicate thread, but it applies:

In my reading of the history of conflicts, there is one thing to keep in mind-in wartime: historically, propaganda is rarely a one way street.

The goods and evils may differ between various sides, but all sides do it.


30 posted on 06/06/2022 3:27:02 PM PDT by rlmorel (Nolnah's Razor: Never attribute to incompetence that which is adequately explained by malice.)
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To: Widget Jr
No matter how bad the U.S. press is, the Russian press is always worse.


31 posted on 06/06/2022 3:29:46 PM PDT by mac_truck (aide toi et dieu t'aidera )
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To: rlmorel

#30. How very true.


32 posted on 06/06/2022 3:33:28 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: Widget Jr
"I've lurked here years, back when 56Kb modems and bailing wire were used for internet connections."

What's your point?

I know lots of n00bies that say they've been here for decades. I think Rush called them "seminar callers"...

33 posted on 06/06/2022 3:34:14 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: WMarshal

“Do you want some cheese with that whineought-six? You’ve gotten kind of bitchy since the Ukes are undeniably getting their aZZes kicked and our $40 billion disappears into many leftist pockets.”

Not bitchy at all, unlike you. If you had read my posts you’d have seen that I have said — repeatedly — that Russia would likely win the invasion but lose the occupation. My view has not changed.

One of the differences between you butt-hurt pro-Russia peeps and most of us on the other side want is we do not want to see Russia conquered or destroyed: We just want to see Russia withdraw back within its own borders; that has been what we have always wanted.

But, you guys are all for conquest and body counts and slaughter and mayhem, and you actually rejoice in it! We want to see things return to the ante-bellum status quo, and let Ukraine work out its own internal issues. But, no: You guys want to crush Ukraine. Why?

And you have the temerity to call us warmongers?

‘Tis to laugh.


34 posted on 06/06/2022 3:34:51 PM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

The difference is that our tax dollars aren’t going toward the Russian propaganda machine


35 posted on 06/06/2022 3:38:42 PM PDT by escapefromboston (Free Chauvin)
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To: DesertRhino
#20. "Did I guess right?"

No, not at all. The author' s conclusions are in the "What Can Be Done to Counter the Firehose of Falsehood?" section at the end.

36 posted on 06/06/2022 3:39:38 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

This is called “confession through projection” aka “the mirror effect.”


37 posted on 06/06/2022 3:52:21 PM PDT by Travis McGee (EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Widget Jr

By far the BEST Russian propaganda was how they CONVINCED Mueller and his 50 or so attorneys that they did not COLLUDE with Trump in the 2016 election.

We all know that Trump and Russia COLLUDED then, but still, Russia’s incredible propaganda machine somehow, some way, managed to convinced these career investigators that Trump didn’t collude.

That is HOW DANGEROUS Russia is, when it comes to propaganda.

Glad to see our media is finally CALLING OUT this Russian interference in the US!!!


38 posted on 06/06/2022 3:52:47 PM PDT by BobL (My hatred of Necons/Globalists exceeds my love of Ukraine or any other country, other than the US)
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To: Widget Jr
Cross reference, same post: https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4069120/posts
39 posted on 06/06/2022 3:54:05 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: Widget Jr

Sigh. In nearly every armed conflict as long as there has been man, combatants have been cutting off the genitals of their vanquished foes and stuffing them in the mouths of the emasculated.

Everyone says the other side does it. My observation is not a moral relativism, it is just what I have come to believe in my reading, everything from Thucydides (they had propaganda back then, too) up to nearly any honest book written about modern conflicts.

From what I can tell, in war, nearly every evil thing happens to a greater or lesser degree on both sides. Yes, I do believe it is worse in some respects, more widespread in some respects, and part of military policy in some respects, but...they happen.

And things like that are used by propagandistic cannon fodder on both sides. Sometimes cartoonishly, sometimes professionally, and sometimes transparently. But it is always used.


40 posted on 06/06/2022 4:00:11 PM PDT by rlmorel (Nolnah's Razor: Never attribute to incompetence that which is adequately explained by malice.)
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