Posted on 04/13/2022 6:36:50 AM PDT by janetjanet998
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT WED APR 13 2022
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY...
..SUMMARY
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST. TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH WILL BE STRONG, WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS.
A SEVERE-STORM OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS A VERY BROAD NORTH-SOUTH REGION FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/INTENSE SEVERE STORMS.
These areas have NEVER had bad weather before...It's been sunny and warm and perfect since the beginning of time. /s
This could start early today like mid morning
Ryan Hall will be live soon
https://www.youtube.com/c/RyanHallYall
COD warning page
https://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
There are no weather live streamers on Rumble expect Meteorologist Aaron Tuttle who just started. Right now he only covers OK area but said he will expand if the channel grows
Please follow him on Rumble so we have a Rumble channel to follow in the future instead of using big tech. He is an excellent teacher if you want to learn about forecasting
Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist
https://rumble.com/c/ATsWeather
SPC hinting a HIGH risk may be needed later
FOR THESE REASONS, ALONG
WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM EARLY DAY CONVECTION/CLOUD
COVER, AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE CURRENT MODERATE RISK CATEGORY
DOES NOT APPEAR PRUDENT AT THIS TIME
We had lots of thunder and lightning last nite, and a couple of tornados according to app. My emergency alert on phone went off twice. That is in Shreveport. We are supposed to get clobbered today too according to forecast.
Gee, it must be spring.
April showers bring May flowers.
:)
It is a tad more than showers this morning in some areas. Gully washers are what we used to call them.
All experts in hail damage repair report to Texas immediately. We caught hell last night.
Latest mesoscale discussion from Storm Prediction Center indicates first tornado watch will be issued soon, for NE TX, NW LA, SW AK and extreme SE OK. Shreveport will be part of the watch area. Stay safe and good luck.
BTW, if any FReepers are near Barksdale AFB in nearby Boisser City, LA, was wondering if you have seen any increase in flight activity that might be part of a “weather evacuation,” ahead of expected storms.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
SUMMARY...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT FAVORS A MIX OF
EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, WHILE ANY LATER
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT WOULD TEND TO BE SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES,
A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH, AND
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
First tornado warning of the day in AR
going to be a long day
There seems to be a low level inversion seen ahead of the line. The low level clouds are slow to burn off plus you can see it on some of the radars too
the storms are in lines also
May lesson the tornado threat IF it holds
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT WED APR 13 2022
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131732Z - 131930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DISCUSSION...A STABLE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A MORNING MCV.
HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER GULF
MOISTURE CAN NOW BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE WHERE THE CU FIELD IS
EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA.
EXTRAPOLATING NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS BETTER MOISTURE AND
NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITIES, IT
APPEARS BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE PRIOR TO THE
CONVECTIVE LINE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
WEST. EXPECT THIS BETTER MOISTURE TO REACH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AROUND 19-20Z, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 20-21Z AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AROUND
22Z. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE
AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO NOT
ONLY SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE SQUALL
LINE, BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. IN ADDITION, SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BACK ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE, SIGNIFICANT ELONGATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE, ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR 75+ MPH WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF STRONG (EF2+) TORNADOES. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
discrete supercells now over MS and more back in LA
here we go
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