Posted on 03/28/2022 4:13:50 AM PDT by millenial4freedom
LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. yield curve measured by the gap between five and 30-year government bond yields inverted on Monday for the first time since early 2006 as a sell-off in the market resumed, with short-dated bond yields jumping to their highest since 2019.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
We’re DOOMED, I tell you, DOOMED!
But, seriously, 2022 elections please hurry here.
hard landing starting to look like the best case.
Explain please. Some financiall pundits say the market still goes up for a while once that happens.
It’s common for the yield curve to flatten at the start of a rate hike cycle. The FED only controls the short end. So if they say rates are going up by 2%, bond traders (long end) think - “that will slow the economy, lower inflation”, so they will not bid up long end rates. Sometimes the end end goes down.
Thank you. Stock futures up this morning, it is so bad.
Oil trading down $6. Oil and derivatives get priced into so much (inflation) that bond traders do key off it a lot.
Looks like the party is coming to a close.
Yeah, I have no idea what the stock market will do. Hard landing is about the real economy. If we have A. much higher short term interest rates and B. much higher energy prices and C. the evaporation of the ill-advised 2021 ARPA stimulus measure, the effect of those three at the same time could be a recession. That’s what the bond market is signaling.
But the bond market can also UN-signal that, and equities have a mind of their own that I have proved to myself I have zero ability to predict.
That’s the impression I see also.
It’s been a rough 2 years.
My thoughts... COVID finally in the rear view mirror, Russia v Ukrainian thing folks will get bored with. Price of Oil settles down hopefully.
These things will definitely be a plus moving forward.
I know it goes against the grain of those who predict doom, and gloom, but I’m pretty confident moving forward. As they are always wrong. 🥱
Best of Luck!
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