Explain please. Some financiall pundits say the market still goes up for a while once that happens.
It’s common for the yield curve to flatten at the start of a rate hike cycle. The FED only controls the short end. So if they say rates are going up by 2%, bond traders (long end) think - “that will slow the economy, lower inflation”, so they will not bid up long end rates. Sometimes the end end goes down.
Yeah, I have no idea what the stock market will do. Hard landing is about the real economy. If we have A. much higher short term interest rates and B. much higher energy prices and C. the evaporation of the ill-advised 2021 ARPA stimulus measure, the effect of those three at the same time could be a recession. That’s what the bond market is signaling.
But the bond market can also UN-signal that, and equities have a mind of their own that I have proved to myself I have zero ability to predict.
That’s the impression I see also.
It’s been a rough 2 years.
My thoughts... COVID finally in the rear view mirror, Russia v Ukrainian thing folks will get bored with. Price of Oil settles down hopefully.
These things will definitely be a plus moving forward.
I know it goes against the grain of those who predict doom, and gloom, but I’m pretty confident moving forward. As they are always wrong. 🥱
Best of Luck!