Hitler invaded France 10 May – 25 June 1940. People were AMAZED that he conquered France in just over a month.
27,000 dead Germans.
111,000 wounded Germans.
Everyone at the time knew that this was a stunning German success.
What’s that? Russia has lost almost 10,000 while conquering Ukraine? [shrug] They’ve seen worse.
“while conquering Ukraine”
Wrong. They haven’t conquered Ukraine. 10,000 dead and they’ve only taken 1 main city Kherson. And then Kherson isn’t really one of the bigger cities.
“You are an opportunist:) Claiming credit for things that took place by itself.”
Six weeks. The French at least put up the pretense of a defense.
Shocking footage shows Russian ballistic missile destroying shopping mall [converted into weapons depot] in Kyiv, Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfZpoVp4op4
Blowed up real good.
This isn’t 1940. Public opinion, even in Russia, won’t accept such losses.
Let’s look at the situation after 1 month of warfare.
Russia’s shock and awe attempt to control the skies failed. They still sent in the troops but Russian Corps have the supplies to fight for 3–5 days without resupply.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
“While the Russian army definitely has the combat power to achieve these scenarios, does Russia have the logistics force structure to support these operations? The short answer is not in the timelines envisioned by Western wargames. In an initial offensive — depending on the fighting involved — Russian forces might reach early objectives, but logistics would impose requirements for operational pauses. As a result, a large land grab is unrealistic as a fait accompli. The Russian army has the combat power to capture the objectives envisioned in a fait accompli scenario, but it does not have the logistic forces to do it in a single push without a logistical pause to reset its sustainment infrastructure. “
That research goes on to say
“NATO planners should develop plans focusing on exploiting Russian logistic challenges rather than trying to address the disparity in combat power. This involves drawing the Russian army deep into NATO territory and stretching Russian supply lines to the maximum while targeting logistics and transportation infrastructure such as trucks, railroad bridges, and pipelines. Committing to a decisive battle at the frontier would play directly into Russian hands, allowing a shorter supply to compensate for their logistic shortfalls.”
Ukrainian seem to have read this and their units fought a “fighting retreat” which means engaging the Russians from a distance while staying out of artillery range. Then retreat as the Russians try to close in and fight. This caused high losses for the Russians and slowed the advance.
After 5 days guess what? The Russian advance stops due to a lack of supplies. Russian units take to looting towns for food and many men start to surrender or desert. This is why the front line barely moved for weeks.
Russia tries to supply its priority forces via truck. The Ukrainians know this and their limited airpower targets supply trucks. Additionally Ukrainian Special Operations units ambush hundreds of tanks and supply trucks.
Most trucks and tanks are forced to use some of the few remaining highways and roads. So Ukrainians ambush them on this road again and again.
Russia is so low on trucks they are using civilian trucks now.
“
As the wider war in Ukraine enters its fourth week, the Ukrainian army and sister services have destroyed no fewer than 485 Russian trucks.
That’s more than a tenth of the trucks that belong to the Russian army’s 10 “material-technical support” brigades, which haul supplies, ammo and fresh troops from rail-heads to front-line formations.”
Even today
1. Russia has failed to take air superiority. Ukrainians still fly fixed wing combatant aircraft.
2. Airports aren’t taken at the time they need them
3. 4 generals are dead. The Germans didn’t face it until the fag ends of World war two.
Russian forces have taken excessive losses and captured very little in return. There are 50 cities with over 100,000 people they need to capture.
Russia has a LONG way to go to win this war and with a faltering economy, it may not be winnable.
Ukraine knows all of this. They know all they have to do is buy time and keep making this bloody. The Russians will hit a point where they don’t have any more money, men, and political support to continue this conflict.
I’d say there is a 40% chance Russian outright losses and is forced to pull out of Ukraine. If Russia does commit to the conflict for the foreseeable future and they manage to conquer Ukraine- well good luck keeping it pacified.
After a year of fighting, tens of thousands dead, and a collapsed economy could Russia afford to occupy a nation the size of Ukraine? Nope