Posted on 03/21/2022 9:34:20 AM PDT by Red Badger
Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog battles King Richard, West Side Story and more at this year's Academy Awards. The winners are anyone's guess, so here are mine...
And the winner is...
The 2022 Academy Awards will honor the best films of the year on March 27. The Power of The Dog has already swept a number of awards ceremonies, earning prestigious gongs for Benedict Cumberbatch, Netflix and writer-director Jane Campion. Maybe Campion will follow Chloe Zhao's success with Nomadland last year, but the Netflix film faces fierce competition from King Richard, West Side Story and Dune -- not to mention Steven Spielberg, Kenneth Branagh, Paul Thomas Anderson and even a Marvel movie or two.
Some of this year's Academy Awards categories are too close to call and pleasingly open to a shortlist of worthy potential winners. Looking at previous awards usually shows clear favorites to win, but there's always room for surprises. Drive My Car, Nightmare Alley, Belfast and Licorice Pizza are also among the films gaining multiple nominations, while Ryûsuke Hamaguchi is also up for best director.
The 2022 Oscars ceremony will air live on ABC on March 27 at 5 p.m. PT (8 p.m. ET). These are my predictions -- ultimately they're subjective, but I've tempered my personal favorites with the results of other awards, perceived preferences of Academy voters, and, of course, some good old-fashioned guesswork. See if you agree with these Oscars 2022 predictions...
********************************************************************************
Best Picture
I'd love to see inspiring stories King Richard or Coda win big, showing the life-affirming power of cinema. A win for Dune or West Side Story would be a reminder of the visual spectacle only available at movie theaters, which we've missed in recent years. But the front-runner has to be The Power of the Dog, the most nominated film of 2022 and a winner of the top gong at the Baftas, Critics' Choice Awards, Golden Globes and many more. This slow-burning Netflix western deserves the praise. The Western is the quintessential American genre, and it's fascinating to see this most venerable of big screen genres refracted by a New Zealand director, British star and an online streaming service to create something so potent.
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
********************************************************************************
Best Directing
Kenneth Branagh being recognized for a deeply personal retelling of his own life story would be an inspiring story. But the smart money is on Power of the Dog director Jane Campion, who already cleaned up at the Baftas, AACTAs, Golden Globes and more. She's the first woman to be nominated twice for best director after The Piano in 1993 (which won her the best original screenplay gong).
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
********************************************************************************
Actor in a Leading Role
Is it just me or did you think Benedict Cumberbatch and Will Smith had already won Oscars? But a win this year would be their first, and either deserves it for their towering performances in Power of the Dog and King Richard, respectively. Andrew Garfield deserves kudos for his performances in both the heart-wrenching Tick, Tick… Boom! and multiplex-conquering Spider-Man: No Way Home, demonstrating the range of cinema. His Marvel castmate Cumberbatch will probably edge it, although it'd be great to see Smith take the award in the same year that Black Oscar pioneer Sidney Poitier died.
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
********************************************************************************
Actress in a Leading Role
Kristen Stewart's snub at the Screen Actors Guild makes her an outside bet, while the others have all won before -- except Jessica Chastain, who scooped the SAG gong. This one is wide open, but Chastain could well scoop the award for her transformative turn as an outrageous televangelist.
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
********************************************************************************
Actor in a Supporting Role
Kodi Smit-McPhee has been tipped to continue the Power of the Dog sweep, but who can resist the story of Troy Kotsur, the first deaf male actor to win a Bafta, a SAG award and a Critics' Choice award.
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
********************************************************************************
Actress in a Supporting Role
Another quality category, with old favorites Judi Dench and Kirsten Dunst competing against excellent performances by Jessie Buckley and experienced actor Aunjanue Ellis. But anyone who's seen the updated West Side Story will know why the all-singing, all-dancing Ariana DeBose is winning award after award for lighting up the screen as the emotional heart of the visually lavish musical.
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
********************************************************************************
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Dune writers Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve deserve recognition for their sparse and enthralling distillation of Frank Herbert's dense source novel. Coda and The Lost Daughter pack an emotional punch, but Campion is again a strong contender for the pulsing Power of the Dog story.
CODA (Sian Heder)
Drive My Car (Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe)
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
********************************************************************************
Writing (Original Screenplay)
If Branagh is shut out for directing, the Academy may see the writing category as the place to honor his heartfelt personal story of growing up in troubled Northern Ireland. However, Paul Thomas Anderson could take it. Licorice Pizza isn't the writer-director's weightiest flick (and has drawn criticism for a racist character), but this could be one of those times the Academy bestows a sort of lifetime achievement gong for someone who's been nominated a bunch of times and never won.
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
Don't Look Up (Adam McKay and David Sirota)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier)
********************************************************************************
Animated Feature Film
We don't talk about Bruno, but there's a lot of talk about the cultural juggernaut that is Encanto. Disney's heartwarming family saga is the likely winner, although Flee is a deeply affecting story while Pixar's Luca, Netflix's Mitchells vs. the Machines and Disney's Raya and the Last Dragon are all gorgeous family flicks.
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
********************************************************************************
Costume Design
West Side Story's costumes provide a sumptuous splash of color and life, but come on: Cruella is set in the fashion industry and is a larger-than-life slice of fabulousness.
Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
Dune (Jacqueline West)
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)
********************************************************************************
Music (Original Score)
Gotta be honest, I'm rooting for Hans Zimmer to win for Dune, just because it'd surely be the first Academy Award to combine bagpipes and throat singing.
Don't Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)
********************************************************************************
Sound
Silence is a crucial component of The Power of the Dog, ironically. Honestly, I have no idea, but sound is also a huge part of Dune's technical achievement in conjuring alien worlds and technology.
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
********************************************************************************
Production Design
As much as I loved Dune, it's all a bit brown, isn't it? West Side Story is a gloriously colorful re-creation of vintage New York where you feel like you can reach out and touch the bricks of the neighbourhood buildings. But The Tragedy of Macbeth is a real achievement, as designers Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh transport you to a dreamlike space somewhere between cinema, theater and deepest nightmare.
Dune (Zsuzsanna Sipos and Patrice Vermette)
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau)
The Power of the Dog (Grant Major and Amber Richards)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh)
West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo and Adam Stockhausen)
********************************************************************************
Cinematography
This is where the visuals of Dune come into their own. There's something mesmerizing about the way Greig Fraser's camera buzzes across the desert with the squadrons of fluttering aircraft like a war movie or haunts the palace of intrigue.
Dune (Greig Fraser)
Nightmare Alley (Dan Lausten)
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)
Dune
********************************************************************************
Documentary Feature
Documentaries are often associated with harrowing true stories, and films like Flee and Writing With Fire are powerful and thought provoking. But Summer of Soul is a timely and revelatory blast of musical delight.
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing With Fire
********************************************************************************
Film Editing
In Tick, Tick... Boom!, Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum deliver suitably show-stopping editing that cuts deftly between musical numbers and flashbacks to the real-life experiences that inspired each song. King Richard also boasts impressive editing from Pamela Martin, who breathes crackle and energy into sports movie tropes like training montages and high-stakes matches. By contrast, Dune and The Power of the Dog have relatively unobtrusive editing that build the rhythm of the movie and draw out the performances. Call me a nerd, but now I want to revisit each film just to study the editing. And my prediction? It'll be Dune, let's face it.
Don't Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Dune (Joe Walker)
King Richard (Pamela Martin)
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
Tick, Tick... Boom! (Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)
********************************************************************************
International Feature Film
It's unlikely to win Best Picture, but Drive My Car richly deserves to take home an award. Each of these excellent films is worth seeking out, obviously.
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
********************************************************************************
Makeup and Hairstyling
A fun one, this, as Tammy Faye, House of Gucci and Cruella all try to out do each other with their hairdos. Big hair and wild make-up is the order of the day, but if we had to pick one winner I'd go for The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
********************************************************************************
Music (Original Song)
Although Lin-Manuel Miranda is nominated, it's not for the song you might expect -- Disney submitted Encanto's song Dos Oruguitas for consideration before We Don't Talk About Bruno became a cultural sensation. It'll probably be Billie Eilish for her languorous James Bond theme, but let's hope it's Down to Joy, just because it'd be great to see Van Morrison hit the stage.
Be Alive -- Beyoncé Knowles-Carter and Darius Scott (King Richard)
Dos Oruguitas -- Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
Down to Joy -- Van Morrison (Belfast)
No Time to Die -- Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell (No Time to Die)
Somehow You Do -- Diane Warren (Four Good Days)
********************************************************************************
Visual Effects
A fun thing about a lot of these categories is they show the range of possibility afforded by each discipline. So for example, James Bond adventure No Time to Die is designed to look like it's entirely real and grounded. But action scenes, like the eye-popping Aston Martin car chase, involve a ton of visual effects that are all the more impressive for being invisible to the casual viewer. At the other end of the scale, movies like Free Guy and Spider-Man conjure reality-defying fantasy worlds thrillingly removed from our own. Dune has to be the front-runner -- especially if Shang-Chi and Spider-Man split the Marvel vote -- but my personal favorite is Shang-Chi for the way the visual effects entwine with real-world stunt work to conjure a succession of exhilarating fight scenes, each with their own character and story.
Dune
Free Guy
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home
This year’s hosts: Regina Hall, Amy Schumer and Wanda Sykes
If people like liberal rear ends in their face then they can be my guest.
“Drive My Car” is the one I’d like to see. I have watched many more foreign films and TV shows than US made ones lately due to the ‘wokeness’ factor.
I recommend that you see it in the theater if you can.
I went to see it simply because of all the hype. I was prepared to respect it — a non-spandex, character driven story, not a splashy, CGI-heavy tentpole — but there was nothing about it that particularly rang my chimes. I just wondered why all the critics were going completely nuts and decided it was worth buying a ticket to find out.
If you do see it in the theater, visit the little boys’ room first and watch your fluid intake. It’s three hours with no intermission.
Then it’s talk, talk, talk, drive, drive, drive, talk and drive, drive and talk, and then talk some more, sometimes in the car, sometimes at home, in the office, on set, walking around, etc. And then more talk. In Mandarin, Japanese, Korean, Korean sign language, and English. Pretty soon I entirely lost track of what language was being spoken; you learn to watch with one eye on the subtitles — and that alone is much easier to do on the big screen than at home. But I became unconscious of language.
It was riveting. A little way into the film, I stepped out of the trance enough to realize that I was wholly engrossed in it — and to wonder, given that it’s all talking and very little action, how the heck are they pulling this off?
The acting is wonderfully naturalistic. The characters are mostly very appealing. The two who misbehave — well, no spoilers, but their screentime is limited and they get their just comeuppance; the film is about the people around them dealing with the mess they leave behind. With those two exceptions, all the characters are highly relatable. You will root for all of them. You would like to have them as friends. You want to know what happens next and if they come out all right. And the film ends before you get tired of the conversation.
How do they pull this off? The film is a marvel of scripting and pacing. You will walk out of the theater feeling that you have spent an engaging evening with four new friends that you would like to see again. No, I’m not calling for a sequel; these are four nice people you would like to have dinner with, and sooner rather than later.
This was a film, probably more than any I can recall seeing, where I simply sat and admired the art of it.
This works well in the theater, where the big screen demands complete attention. I do wonder how it translates to home viewing. Again, it is a film that demands that you give it full attention, and that’s much harder from the couch potato position with 101 distractions beckoning. But yes, it’s a film worth watching. I doubt that it will win Best Picture, but if it did, I wouldn’t complain. If it does, I’m sure the usual naysayers will come out of the woodwork complaining that it’s a foreign film, a navel-gazing indie film, that nothing happens, that there are no flying spandex suits, no explosions, no sandworms, etc. And with 99.9 percent certainty, I will guarantee that those complaining will be people who haven’t seen the movie and don’t have a clue what they are talking about.
The other options are worse
Dune didn’t seem that special to me. It seemed like a lot of other SF movies. If Hollywood decides that it doesn’t want to punish Spielberg and doesn’t feel that they have to be ultrawoke, they’ll give it to West Side Story.
If Volodymyr Zelinsky doesn’t win Best Actor, the whole of media is a complete farce. Oh, wait... :)
We can tune in to FR next week to see how they did. Below 10 million is getting pretty low for a marquee event like the oscars.
Pretty good movie. Didn’t expect the ending.
West Side Story is a remake. “A Star is Born” was a remake of a remake of a remake. Has any remake ever gotten ‘Best Picture’? Yes, one time, 2006 ............
Thanks for your review.
5.56mm
I make no claim to be a sophisticated observer, but from noodling around over the last couple of years, I think the writing is the biggest chokepoint and problem area -- not that there aren't plenty of other problems as well, but the writing problem is acute and the DEI mania is making it worse. I'm a newbie, amateur and complete outsider, but I keep running across the scattered, always anonymous complaints that the writers rooms are the hardest places to diversify and that there are now too many writers who run to HR if they get edited or rewritten. The lunatics are running the asylum. The industry is hiring people who never would have made the cut a generation ago. Just like academia.
The bigger the company, the more entrenched these problems seem to be. Good writing? I'd look to foreign films and smaller, independent films. It's hard for a DEI committee to wreak havoc when the writer/director/editor team is one person. That's still not uncommon in movies. TV series are a different kind of beast.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.