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Putin’s Predictabilities
American Greatness ^ | 24 Feb, 2022 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 02/24/2022 4:36:42 AM PST by MtnClimber

It is easy to predict what the Russian president will do in any given situation. Biden is making it easier for Putin to act with aggression.

or all his caginess, dissimulation, and opportunism, Vladimir Putin is more or less predictable.

Putin’s aims? The Russian president’s two-decade dilemma has been how to reclaim the prestige and power of the former Soviet Union—but with only 75 percent of his country’s former territory and 140 million fewer people.

When does he strike?

First, Putin moves on neighboring former Soviet republics when the world price of oil is high, and his coffers are full. So he went into Georgia in 2008 and into Eastern Ukraine and Crimea in 2014 when he thought he had the financial wherewithal and public support to do so.

But when the world is awash in oil, prices dip, and the United States reigns as the largest gas and oil producer, he hesitates. So he remained static between 2017 and 2020.

Second, when the United States increases the defense budget and deters its enemies, Putin also pauses. In contrast, when America “resets” or appeases, he is emboldened.

In 2008, the United States was battered by sky-high oil prices and bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Then between2009 and 2016, President Obama went on an apology tour, cut defense spending, boasted of a new “Russian reset,” contextualized Iranian and North Korean aggression, and begged Putin to behave until Obama was reelected in 2012—in exchange for dismantling U.S. missile defense programs in Eastern Europe. Obama then invited Russia into the Middle East after a 40-year absence.

(Excerpt) Read more at amgreatness.com ...


TOPICS: History; Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: communism

1 posted on 02/24/2022 4:36:42 AM PST by MtnClimber
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To: MtnClimber

Truck drivers and oil companies are the new enemies. Who cares about Putin anymore?


2 posted on 02/24/2022 4:36:55 AM PST by MtnClimber (For photos of Colorado scenery and wildlife, click on mycreen name for my FR home page.)
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To: MtnClimber

3 posted on 02/24/2022 4:41:28 AM PST by tlozo
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To: MtnClimber

VDH explains it simply and accurately.


4 posted on 02/24/2022 4:43:46 AM PST by woweeitsme
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To: MtnClimber

Of course weakness emboldens Putin. Putin claims Ukraine has Nazis and are mistreating people.

Hitler made a similar claim about mistreatment of Germans when he invaded Poland.


5 posted on 02/24/2022 4:55:20 AM PST by RummyChick ( )
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To: MtnClimber

6 posted on 02/24/2022 5:17:51 AM PST by Travis McGee (EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Travis McGee

Cut off all oil and gas imports from Russia….Trump was right…Europe is dependent on Russian oil….


7 posted on 02/24/2022 5:52:06 AM PST by Hojczyk
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To: MtnClimber

What did Putin ever do to the US Victor David Hanson? Did he mandate that you take a deadly vaxx then do it to your child? Did he drive gas to $3.79 a gallon and a steak to $25? Did he close all the businesses in the US and throw millions out of work? Who’s the real enemy of the American people?


8 posted on 02/24/2022 7:05:28 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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