See the CDC corruption for yourself | It's in plain sight in this paper in JAMA about myocarditis rates by CDC authors.

substack.com ^ | 2/15/2022 | Steve Kirsch

[ransomnote]

Steve Kirsch

Check out this paper published in JAMA written by a bunch of CDC authors including my favorite CDC misinformer, Dr. John Su.

It’s super popular. Over 500,000 views.

Here’s the key paragraph:

Furthermore, as a passive system, VAERS data are subject to reporting biases in that both underreporting and overreporting are possible.38 Given the high verification rate of reports of myocarditis to VAERS after mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination, underreporting is more likely. Therefore, the actual rates of myocarditis per million doses of vaccine are likely higher than estimated.

I agree. Underreporting is more likely. In fact, the term “overreporting” wasn’t even mentioned in the reference they cite. I can’t even figure out how VAERS could be overreported since the system should eliminate duplicates unless there is a bug.

But the key thing here is they did absolutely nothing to attempt to quantify the underreporting factor (URF).

They absolutely know how to estimate it. John wrote the paper on how to do that in November 2020: The reporting sensitivity of the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) for anaphylaxis and for Guillain-Barré syndrome. 

Do they apply that methodology to compute a minimum underreporting factor for serious adverse events (e.g., using the anaphylaxis rates from the Blumenthal paper in JAMA).

Of course not!

They simply do not want to let anyone know how serious it is.

So they deliberately leave out the estimate of the minimum URF (the minimum URF is the URF calculated using the most serious events that would be expected to be always reported) and leave it as an exercise for the reader.

My URF calculation

When I make the URF calculation using their methods and the best available data, the CDC then claims that they don’t agree with my results. They never say why.

My minimum URF comes to 41. But that’s for really serious stuff that will always get reported to VAERS. For myocarditis, the doctors don’t like to believe it could be caused by the vaccine so they typically won’t report it.

When you ask the CDC for the correct minimum URF, they say, “We’ll get back to you” and never do.

The paper says there are at most 106 reports per million doses for boys 16-17. That’s 1 in every 9,433 fully vaccinated teenage boys. It’s actually more than that in reality because there are reports from the first dose (these are usually an order of magnitude lower than the second dose) and because the “window” for looking at cases was only 7 days. So keep that in mind. Also, note the 10X dose dependency. That’s a sure sign of causality. It doesn’t get much stronger than that.

Now, using a pretty conservative URF of 100 for this symptom (2.5X the minimum which I think is a reasonable engineering estimate for the myocarditis which is much less likely than anaphylaxis to be reported), we get an actual rate in practice of more than 1 in 100.

That’s pretty high. It’s unacceptably high. That’s why they never apply the URF. Because it would disqualify the vaccine.

Does a 1 in 100 rate of myocarditis match the real world? Yes!

Our calculation matches up to what we see in the real world.

The real world data is kept hidden from view of everyone. I have yet to see a single school that publishes their myocarditis cases. The only way you find these out is when parents talk to parents. The government doesn’t want anyone to know the real numbers for obvious reasons: it would kill the vaccine program if people knew the truth. So everyone keeps quiet and you have to get really lucky to get any data at all.

For example, at Monte Vista Christian School (MVCS), there are 4 cases of post-vaccine myocarditis. The school has around 800 students and assuming 50% are boys and around half are vaccinated (which is an educated guess using information from a parent that I’m not allowed to disclose) that would be a myocarditis rate of approximately 1 in 50 boys. The head of the school isn’t talking. She likes to correct my articles, but she never claims my number is wrong because lying about the number isn’t a Christian value. She corrects everything else, but not the number. This should be troubling to everyone.

Check out the latest MVCS conversation in the Postscript section of this article.

So the bottom line is once you apply a realistic URF of 100 to the rate in VAERS, you get a reasonable estimate for the true incidence rate of myocarditis post-vaccine.

It’s on us to do our own risk assessments

Since the government agencies aren’t doing the risk assessments, each of us can do our own like Montpellier did in the comments. Here’s what he wrote:

If I simply assess my own friendship circle about 80% of those that got injected had various degrees of side effects. Out of those 80% about 20% ended up feeling sufficiently ill they had to visit the ER more than once over suspected blood clots. One ended in intensive care for over two weeks. Out of the remaining, I'd estimate around half (50%) never felt normal or well months later after taking their vaccines and keep asking all the time why they constantly feel ill, weak, exhausted and unable to cope with basic daily tasks.

Not a single one of them received an acknowledgement that their side effects were due to the vaccines, not one case was added to any adverse effects reporting system.

One person who ended in the ER was told it was merely 'bad luck' that she ended with neurological problems and pains on the entire side of the body where she'd been injected.... after she 'recovered' the symptoms re-appeared when she took a flight to her sister's wedding.

Your mileage may vary. Does that sound like a perfectly safe vaccine to you?

More on CDC corruption

For a first-hand look at CDC corruption from someone who used to work at NIOSH (which is part of the CDC), see:

Lawrence’s Newsletter

Righting the Ship Part II

The wisdom of the prudent is to give thought to their ways, but the folly of fools is deception. Pr 14:8 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has a long and storied global history of public health but as it has grown in size and mission it has become a master at the art of deception in order to fulfill a political agenda that has remained…

Read more

9 days ago · Lawrence Mazzuckelli

Summary

The minimum URF is absolutely required for estimating the safety of the vaccines. Not doing the calculation at all is corrupt. It means you cannot do a realistic risk benefit analysis. This is a technique for hiding safety data from the public. That’s the way they roll at the CDC and nobody in the mainstream medical community has the courage to call them out on it. Nobody.

 

[GunRunner]

Interesting that you consider Steve Kirsch credible.

I didn't say anything regarding Kirsch one way or the other. It's just interesting that a vaccine proponent is quoting radical left wing sources such as Politifact, and a K Street Swamp outfit run by Dick (Stolen Valor) Blumenthal's brother who worked for Obama.

Here's a screed written by Blumenthal on behalf of the Commonwealth Fund pimping for MORE government control during pandemics just last week:

Like it or not, the government needs greater power to fight pandemics

Believe what you want about the Big Pharma jabs, but I'm amazed that you think anyone on FreeRepublic would be swayed by arguments cut and pasted from radically leftist sources.

[DugwayDuke]

GunRunner wrote: “Believe what you want about the Big Pharma jabs, but I’m amazed that you think anyone on FreeRepublic would be swayed by arguments cut and pasted from radically leftist sources.”

The virus isn’t a political issue and neither is vaccination?
Over 64% of the American populace is vaccinated. Obviously, that includes many conservatives.

[Jane Long]

Remember when FR $hot $hills so arrogantly claimed that this brave doc didn't even exist?

Flight Surgeon LTC Theresa Long, MD, MPH, the most courageous soldier in America testifies in a Senate Panel on what happened during the FDC/CDC discovery of myocarditis in young males--an issue for men in uniform. pic.twitter.com/0ObSWrapoP— Peter McCullough, MD MPH (@P_McCulloughMD) February 16, 2022

[SoConPubbie]

Have them do a Dimer test.

As I understand it, itwill tell you if you are suffering from micro blood-cloys.

[bagster]

In my mid 70’s, before the clot shot, I could lift one end of my riding mower when it got stuck, I could hike up the local mountains without breathing too hard at all. Now, well I can’t anymore.

[GunRunner]

Over 64% of the American populace is vaccinated. Obviously, that includes many conservatives.

I got jabbed so I could keep working. Now that this authoritarian crap is winding down, you people are going to learn a really hard lesson that you should have known from the beginning: coercion DOES NOT equal consent.

[SecAmndmt]

If they were dishonest about this, what else were they dishonest about?

[DugwayDuke]

GunRunner wrote: “I got jabbed so I could keep working. Now that this authoritarian crap is winding down, you people are going to learn a really hard lesson that you should have known from the beginning: coercion DOES NOT equal consent.”

Where have I stated that people should be forced to take the vaccines? My argument isn’t in favor of vaccine mandates. My argument is that the vaccines aren’t poison, they aren’t worse than the virus, or that Bill Gates and Big Pharma want to decimate the world’s population. Oh, I also argue that Malone, Mercola, etc., are selling snake oil.

[Cboldt]

I can't even figure out how VAERS could be overreported since the system should eliminate duplicates unless there is a bug.

VAERS is a cause and effect measurement. Overreporting happens when the cause is not the vaccine.

[bagster]

My argument is that the vaccines aren’t poison, they aren’t worse than the virus, or that Bill Gates and Big Pharma want to decimate the world’s population.

As usual, your argument is bupkis.

#BioWeaponBoy

[HamiltonJay]

I personally know 3 people who have developed myocarditis and another one who has developed pericarditis after getting jabbed.

The published risk is 1 in 13,000 for myocarditis from the CDC.. (don’t know pericarditis numbers) either I am one of the luckiest people on the planet for this to be true, or their numbers and published risk factors are ABSOLUTE CRAP!!

Believe me people I am not that lucky... Their published risk factors are ABSOLUTE GARBAGE!

For me to know 3 people personally in my direct circle who have developed myocarditis means the risk factor is likely 1 in a few hundred AT MOST... no way 1 in 1000, let alone 1 in 13,000.

[DugwayDuke]

bagster wrote: “As usual, your argument is bupkis.”

So, you think the vaccines are poison, they’re worse than the virus, and that Bill Gates and Big Pharma want to decimate the world’s population.

[bagster]

So, you think the vaccines are poison, they’re worse than the virus, and that Bill Gates and Big Pharma want to decimate the world’s population.

Yes indeed I do, Bio-Weapon.

A multiple choice test:

a.) You aren't paying attention.

b.) You're in on the scam.

c.) You're dumber than a box of hair.

d.) All of the above.

I'm going with 'd'.

[bagster]

p.s. Learn to italic.

[DugwayDuke]

bagster wrote: “Yes indeed I do, Bio-Weapon.”

If you truly believe the vaccines are poison, that they’re worse than the virus, and that Bill Gates and Big Pharma want to decimate the world’s population, then you shouldn’t be allowed out without adult supervision.

[ransomnote]

In the General/Chat forum, on a thread titled See the CDC corruption for yourself | It's in plain sight in this paper in JAMA about myocarditis rates by CDC authors., Cboldt wrote:

I can't even figure out how VAERS could be overreported since the system should eliminate duplicates unless there is a bug.

VAERS is a cause and effect measurement. Overreporting happens when the cause is not the vaccine.

*

The CDC has seen to it that VAERS is habitually, and radically under reported.

The CDC did not want this database, but Congress mandated it to give the public a  window into potential issues with vaccines, and to give medical establishment an early warning signal, so that if there were unexpected negative impacts following implementation of a new vax, they would know to halt and investigate.

VAERS is intentionally backward, hard to search, and search results are ridiculously limited...by design. They have our tax dollars and lavish it wherever they wish. They have other state of the art databases built for hospital management etc. built after VAERS, but they want VAERS to be as unusable as possible.

Harvard conducted a study on VAERS reporting 10 years ago and at that time discovered only about 1 in 100 actual adverse events were reported to VAERS.

Many doctors don't know what VAERS is, but CDC boilerplate pretends that 'it's the law' for doctors to report adverse events to VAERS. I've posted content about nurses being scolded, punished etc. for trying to report to VAERS. The paper version of a VAERS report is 'full of countless boxes, pages and pages of them, and it takes 45 minutes to fill out'. That's by design as well. How many doctors during a supposed 'pandemic' have UNPAID time, 45 minutes for each patient, to fill that out. The CDC has done what it could to deter compliance.

When the vax rollout happened, a bitchute channel named WelcomeTheEagle88 (e.g., https://www.bitchute.com/video/QnlBRAH9jacL/) used his expertise in medical insurance data analysis, and his advanced analysis software suite, to examine CDC data releases to VAERS with the Covid 'vaccine' rollout. He detected many manipulations and concluded the CDC is withholding data, or delaying its release to forward the spread of the vaccinations without admitting to harm. He is a true geek so many found his walk throughs arcane, but none could refute him on level ground. On FR trolls screamed he was stupid, ignorant, a fear porn monger and crazy. His data and reporting was noticed by Stew Peters and eventually, Dr. McCullough, who spoke positively of his work.

Initially people could report directly to VAERS but the CDC didn't like that (too much exposure) so now all reports go to the CDC and they, according to their literature, have 4-6 weeks to vet reports before publishing. But data analysis indicates many reports to the CDC just don't make it or are held past the point they are irrelevant for an 'early safety signal'.

Comparisons to other databases show this. The military database gives you number of persons + obligation to report ALL medical history to that medical system, so you get a percentage of doses administered to number of reports of harm that is far, far beyond that reported to VAERS. At one point I looked in England's version of VAERS and saw that they had as many adverse events reports and America, but they have 1/5 the population.

VAERS was supposed to be centralized, but the CDC created a separate phone app for those being vaccinated to use to report adverse events, and coincidentally, that application does not report data to VAERS as it should, but is instead stored in a database only the CDC staff can access, denying the Congressional mandate's intention of giving the public ready access to vaccine adverse events reports. 

There's two whistleblowers now, working with Thomas Renz, Esq., who say they have seen many many deaths/adverse events post vax sitting in the Medicare database, unreported to VAERS. In fact, there are 12 database systems that are all supposed to automatically roll data over to VAERS; the CMS system is just one such database that hasn't been doing that.

VAERS is definitely under reported. The experts know that the stats like 1% reporting rate or 1/40 reporting ratio are vastly under estimating, but as the experts they are, they do not speculate on the atrocity likely taking place given all the ways this bioweapon has been politicized.

VAERS is not so much a cause and effect measurement, as shrieking trolls routinely scream at me. VAERS has a disclaimer saying it's not cause and effect. It's actually a 'safety signal'. It's what you notice that makes you halt administration of the vax until it's safety can be determined through analysis which determines mechanism(s) of harm.

Normally a vax has a safety board watching for safety signals and a pre-established threshold past which it would be taken off the market. Doctors who study this say around 50 deaths would warrant a black box warning, and around 200 would take any produce off the market. But by the first month or so there were already 1200 deaths, and those as I have said, are just a subset of actual events.

A few mathematicians studied the CDC's algorithm to determine the number of deaths required for the Covid 'vaccine' to be taken off the market. They assure the public that the CDC established a threshold using an algorithm which makes it mathematically impossible to trigger a safety signal. For Covid vaccines alone, literally any number of deaths constitute a vaccine with no safety concerns. This isn't even all the game playing involved, but all I have time for now.

[P-Marlowe]

Here are the facts:

What you posted was pure speculation.

You’re entitled to your own opinion. You are not entitled to your own facts.

[Jane Long]

I’m guessing the $hift working $hot $hills get paid some sort of bonus, for each reply they get.

They continuously get away with posting gov’t/CDC type of crock sources.....on their VERY obvious $hifts....which they clock in/out, at just the same time, daily.

That used to be considered trolling.

[LilFarmer]

I have wondered if they get extra for how fast they post, and for every reply to them. It is so obvious, I wonder why it is allowed?

[P-Marlowe]

Maybe we should stop feeding the trolls.