Scientists mystified, wary, as Africa avoids COVID disaster

AP ^ | 11/18/2021 | MARIA CHENG and FARAI MUTSAKA

[simpson96]

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) — At a busy market in a poor township outside Harare this week, Nyasha Ndou kept his mask in his pocket, as hundreds of other people, mostly unmasked, jostled to buy and sell fruit and vegetables displayed on wooden tables and plastic sheets. As in much of Zimbabwe, here the coronavirus is quickly being relegated to the past, as political rallies, concerts and home gatherings have returned.

“COVID-19 is gone, when did you last hear of anyone who has died of COVID-19?” Ndou said. “The mask is to protect my pocket,” he said. “The police demand bribes so I lose money if I don’t move around with a mask.”

[CatHerd]

No, HCQ is not consumed daily by a high percentage of Africans. It is not used as a preventative, but sometimes is used (often in conjunction with artemisinin) as a cure (although it is not very effective, as P. falciparum is chloroquine-resistant in nearly all of sub-Saharan Africa, with HCQ even less effective than plain chloroquin).

In fact, because chloroquine (and its relatives) have been so much more out of use for so many years, chloroquine-sensitive strains are now beginning to emerge:

https://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13071-017-2298-y

That said, chloroquine, being cheap, and given there have been over 230 million cases of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa per year of late, no doubt millions did take chloroquine to treat malaria. Consider though, that is out of a total population of 1.1 billion and only for a limited course of treatment. It is hardly as if everyone in Africa is popping HCQ (or chloroquine, or more expensive related drugs) every day.

Even if you just assume (!) that every single case was treated, that would only constitute about 20% of the total population, and only for about two weeks per case. On average, a little over 9 million would be in treatment at one time, slightly less than 1% of the total population. Even if every single one was taking HCQ (which they were not), how could this make a significant impact? (Granted, there will be seasonal variations in number of cases at one time, but for the purposes of easy discussion...)

Artemisinin is also widely used to treat malaria in Africa, and that stuff really rocks. It works amazingly fast, but does not wipe out all the nasty little baddies, so another drug (or drugs) should be administered as well. Sometimes it’s chloroquin, sometimes mefloquine, sometimes doxy, sometimes Fansidar, sometimes good old quinine, sometimes newer more expensive drugs — depending on availability, what the patient can afford (which usually is not much, hence chloroquine) and the strain. (And sometimes people just take the arty until feeling better, then get a recurrence later — lots of self-diagnosis and self-medication in the poorest countries of our world — and possibly contributing to the sad emergence of artemisinin-resistant strains.)

So, if malaria treatment does make a difference, which treatment is it? The chloroquine? Or could it be the artemisinin? It has been looked at as a possible treatment for Covid, too:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210719/Study-proves-effectiveness-of-Artemisia-annua-against-SARS-CoV-2-in-vitro.aspx

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphar.2021.649532/full

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7605811/

It appears to me HCQ use is not the answer. Certainly not the whole answer! I don’t think artemisinin is, either.

As for ivermectin, it is *not used for Covid prevention in Africa*. Nor is it is used for prevention of round worm infestations, as so many here seem to believe, although it is widely used as a cure. For round worms in the intestinal tract, only a single dose is usually given, so that would hardly affect differences in Covid rates.

There is a WHO programme (APOC) which distributes ivermectin for prevention of river blindness in a number of African countries, and some here have made much of the lower rates of Covid infection and death in those countries, and some rather rough preliminary statiatical studies have looked at that.

African countries (”APOC countries”) participating in the WHO ivermectin programme to prevent river blindness have a 28% lower Covid fatality rate (but only 8% lower infection rate) than those African countries which do not, according to those studies (not peer reviewed and further research is certainly needed):

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33795896/

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.26.21254377v1

Before anyone gets too excited about this, though, the ivermectin is only distributed to high-risk villages, not to everyone in these countries! Furthermore, South Africa (non-APOC) is an outlier in several ways (climate, higher level of development, higher median age, higher Covid infection rate than neighboring non-APOC countries, etc). And, as daniel1212 pointed out, significantly higher obesity rate. Take South Africa out of the mix, and I suspect the difference would be much less significant.

There *may* be something to the ivermectin use in APOC countries contributing to lower Covid death rates, but it needs looking at more closely on a village-by-village basis. Do the APOC villages have significantly lower rates than similar non-APOC villages? If yes, maybe over next in does have an effect, provided the villages and villagers are very similar in other ways (obesity rate, age distribution, level of activity, diet, etc).

One study noted their figures had been adjusted for developmental level. Well, they may have got it backwards there. Perhaps in less developed countries, where people spend little to no time inside climate-controlled buildings, riding elevators, etc, there is naturally less spread of Covid. They shop at open-air markets, live in dwellings without HVAC, etc. Sunlight and fresh air may really make a difference.

On the other hand, perhaps they got it right, as there is likely less accurate Covid surveillance in less developed countries. Or maybe it’s a wash. We really don’t know.

Meanwhile, here in the States, we have monoclonal antibodies, which really do work. I am so grateful I live here and will have access to MAB should I get Covid again. In the beginning, before we had MAB and better treatment, I may have considered ivermectin or HCQ as better than nothing. Now that we understand Covid better, have MAB and better treatment, I’ll just go with the MAB, thank you.

I don’t think those who are using ivermectin or HCQ are wrong. If taken early enough, these people may have a less severe bout of Covid than they otherwise would have. There simply is not enough solid research, to my mind, to justify taking it myself. MAB is a sure thing and available, so I will go with that, personally. What others choose to do is their business, not mine.

Back to Africa, I would not be surprised if it turns out to be a sort of synergistic combination of factors such as climate, naturally more robust immune systems (given greater disease burden), less time spent in closed climate-controlled public buildings, more sunshine and fresh air, lower obesity rate, much lower median age, and so on. Perhaps ivermectin and/or chloroquine do a bit, but I have some doubts about how much it could be. Whatever it is, good for Africa. They have way more than their fair share of nasty diseases.

[CatHerd]

Thanks for posting those maps. Here is another that is relevant. Median age:

[RideForever]

The damning thing is that Dr. Fauci had article printed in NIH in 2004 regarding ivermectin (IVM) and SARS-2 family of viruses. IVM annihilated SARS-2 in vitro and stopped its reproduction. CoVID-19 is a very close cousin of SARS-2. Fauci remarked favorably on its possible use as an anti-viral.

And let's not forget the Lancet article on which the FDA condemns IVM was pulled. It's clear, even to the public, that the dosages used in the study were ridiculously set, and applied outside the window of prophylaxis, when the virus was well into its reproduction cycle, with severe symptoms.

[libertarian66]

This is simply nonsense, there’s no mystery here. The age gradient for serious illness and death is 1000 FOLD. Not percent, 1000 fold. The youngest die at 1000th the rate as the oldest. Africans are on average half the age of a Westerner. Hence much fewer deaths. This isn’t rocket science.

In addition the numbers reported out of Africa are simple nonsense. They simply aren’t counting most deaths. Multiply by 5 to 10, you’ll get a reasonable estimate of actual excess deaths. Notice; South Africa reported the most fatalities. SA is easily the most advanced medical system and country in Africa - decades of white rule and still an advanced infrastructure. This indicates the rate of deaths varies with how good the medical system is, which reinforces the idea that deaths are in fact grossly underreported in Africa.

Any scientist who claims to be mystified by this is incompetent, dishonest or coopted by government/propaganda organizations. Or all three.

[Cronos]

Brazil and India are hot too, but they had many deaths. It may be that there are fewer old africans and fewer obese people.

[daniel1212]

"My first thought was that maybe people at higher latitudes are less active, as they are remaining indoors to keep warm. On the other hand, when it’s very hot, people are lethargic. My second thought was maybe it’s an evolutionary adaptation: people at higher latitudes have more fat to keep warm. My third thought was that much of the world’s wealth is in Europe and North America, so at higher latitudes. Maybe, while remaining indoors, the people are inventing things which create wealth, resulting in them overeating."

Door # 3. Not simply because there are video games and wide screens, but

By Aug 31, 2007 it was reported, "The average American today works 8 hours less per week and enjoys 7 hours more leisure per week than in 1965." ..During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, people age 15 and older spent 32 minutes more per day in leisure and sports activities than they did in 2019—5.5 hours compared with 5.0 hours. (https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/time-spent-in-leisure-and-sports-activities-increased-by-32-minutes-per-day-in-2020.htm).

The daily supply of calories in America climbed from 2,873 in 1961 to 3,793 in 2005 before slightly decreasing to 3,663 in 2013 (latest stats found).

- https://ourworldindata.org/food-supply

Having overcome affliction and adversity, the blessing of affluence is a test which few individuals and no nation I know of has not been overcome by.

Behold, this was the iniquity of thy sister Sodom, pride, fulness of bread, and abundance of idleness was in her and in her daughters, neither did she strengthen the hand of the poor and needy. And they were haughty, and committed abomination before me: therefore I took them away as I saw good. (Ezekiel 16:49-50)

While increasing in material goods, America has weakened the hand of the poor and needy as regards spiritual and family values, thus having a negative balance sheet.

[Captain Peter Blood]

Now that is a real possibility

[Svartalfiar]

Perhaps they often use cinchona bark.

i recently resorted to using it for an issue related to neuropathy. it helped. not a long term solution but i certainly see why it has been used for so long for a variety of issues.

i had never heard of it until i saw someone say the tea made from the bark helped with his Covid

as always...you have to be careful with your liver when using these kinds of products

https://pinchandswirl.com/homemade-tonic-water-for-the-ultimate-gin-and-tonic/

[daniel1212]

Thanks. Added to the collection. But I did not know .svg files would post as images here. Flicker would not take the link, so I got the https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/Median_age_by_country%2C_2016.svg/640px-Median_age_by_country%2C_2016.svg.png file from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Median_age_by_country,_2016.svg