More information can be found HERE(wikipedia), or do a search for "Lorenz System".
There is no way to predict the weather on any significant timeline.
Posted on 10/08/2021 3:04:45 AM PDT by MtnClimber
That’s what we have -- an unanswered guess that was given a Nobel Prize.
This past week, Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselmann, and Giorgio Parisi were awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics for research that led to early computer models of the Earth's climate. On the face of it, some people might think this is a grand achievement. In reality, unlike many Nobel-worthy accomplishments that are based on hard data or newly known processes, this one was simply a guess. Incredibly, we still don’t have an answer, more than 60 years later.
As the BBC reports,
“It is incredibly difficult to predict the long-term behaviour of complex physical systems such as the climate. Computer models that anticipate how it will respond to rising greenhouse gas emissions have therefore been crucial for understanding global warming as a planetary emergency.”
The Associated Press reported on Manabe’s work, saying, “…other climate scientists called his 1967 paper with the late Richard Wetherald “the most influential climate paper ever.” Manabe’s Princeton colleague, Tom Delworth, called Manabe “the Michael Jordan of climate.”
CNN reported,
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
And the Nobel Prize for science goes to..................The Communist Hoax!!!!!
If they take their computer model, and plug in data from, say, 1900, will it accurately show climate data from 1950? If not, why not?
Indeed. I seriously contest the accuracy of their model. If it is truly accurate, do as you say. And further it should be able to accurately predict every major hurricane over the last century.
I don’t know what science the winners worked in, but it certainly isn’t physics.
First they gave the Piece Prize to Arafat and Obama (both jokes), as well as Rigoberto Menchu, who was documented as a fabulist and a liar. So why not a Physics Prize to a trio of fake doomsayers?
If they use the measured data after the "correction factors" are incorporated then the old data will match the computer model. If you use today's measured data the computer model will not match future measurements because they don't know what "correction factor" to use on today's measurements yet. It is a not-so-clever hoax, but people fall for it.
The Nobel “Peace” Prize has been a farce ever since it was awarded to The Zer0 simply for being elected. I honestly didn’t expect that the “hard” prizes would fall into farce as well so quickly.
I would not be too surprised if next year’s Nobel Peace Prize went to a politician who declares they found that “evil is really good” and the Nobel Prize in Physics to a scientist who declares “up is really down”.
The easiest thing in the world to model is history. You can always take a set of data and use them to fit observations. The tricky part is getting your model to reliably predict the future. Now, from what I have read in the popular literature, climate models do not do a good job of predicting (postdicting?) the past.
There are useful and well established ways to rate a model, to tell if you are "overfitting" the data, and to know how well you can predict the future assuming you are observing a stationary process, meaning the the system you are modeling does not change, only the inputs (e.g., CO2 levels) change, and that you have account for all the important variables (e.g., solar flux).
Again, from the little I can glean from the popular press, there are no reliable models that have had any success in predicting climatic changes, and the only controlling variable used is CO2. As Roy Spence of the UAH has pointed out, we cannot rule out the possibility that the sensitivity of atmospheric temperature to CO2 is negative. Meaning that more CO2 means a (slightly) cooler not warmer planet.
The Nobel Peace prize was always political, awarded to somebody, who was IN in given time.
The Nobel prize for Physics has been so far always awarded to real scientists.
Looks like that just ended!
Don’t forget Al Gore was also awarded a Noble Peace Prize for ??????
But is it physics?
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