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Good assessment of where China is.

There have been a lot of articles over the past 10 years about the “little emperors” that were created by the 1 child policies as well. Now all those LEs are the ones of what are considered the core fighting age.

I’d also mention the little tit for tat that happened with India about 1 - 2 years back on their shared border. Word I got was that China had it handed to them there. I’d take India in that scrum any day of the week.

If any real fight breaks out there is no one that is going to team up with China that is anywhere in their geographic vicinity. They’ve even lost influence over NK over the past 6 years.

Scenario in my mind - Taiwan takes a lot of civilian casualties and Japan comes to immediate aid. Those two can hold the tide until the US & UK can bring more force (not sure about the Aussie govt right now). Once the tide is stemmed and everyone else sees they can’t even take 1 island they’ve been planning on for decades then everyone else will pile on - Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines. India may use it as an opportunity to take what they’ve deemed theirs for a while as well as possibly liberate Tibet. The Uyghurs rise up with air drops of ‘better then liberator’ pistols and other weapons.

Worse case scenario- South Korea enters the fray as well and triggers the North Koreans to take advantage (I see them holding fast and not entering for exactly this reason). But if they do then the allies decide to close the war as quickly as they can and hit 3 gorges. It’ll all be over except the mop up at that point.

Biggest concern: A possible spread of activity due to perceived distractions

Russia may try for a land grab at that point, though likely not in China as their eastern sector has seen a lot of Chinese nationals entering for work as there weren’t enough Russians for a full work force in that region - but I think Putin might use the distraction for his own purposes elsewhere.

Might see Iran and ME allied groups use it to try for Israel, Turkey wants a coupe of things in northern Iraq taken care of as well as Syria and the Greek conflict about borders and Cyprus could get hot again. Venezuela might be willing to cause problems if China pays them well enough. You mentioned Argentina - England can’t fight on two naval fronts and they both know it. If India enters - Pakistan may see it as an opportunity to reignite their conflict. Yeah that’s worst scenario in my mind. It gets messy fast due to old grudges and regional conflicts.