Posted on 10/04/2021 6:07:37 AM PDT by MtnClimber
The bureaucrats of the world, particularly in the UN and developed countries, have the idea that they are going to eliminate all use of fossil fuels by somewhere around 2040-50. They have no conception of how to accomplish that, other than to order from on high that it shall occur and assume that somebody else will figure out the details. This gives the rest of us the opportunity to sit on the sidelines and observe how bureaucratic fantasy gradually runs into the brick wall of physical reality.
Back in June I covered the Report just out from Ren21 Renewables Now wherein we learned that in the ten years from 2009 to 2019, despite hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies for intermittent wind and solar power, the percent of world final energy consumption coming from fossil fuels had dropped all the way from 80.3% to 80.2%. Oh, but world final energy consumption was substantially up over that decade from about 320 to 385 exajoules, so despite all the strenuous efforts to reduce their use, in fact annual fossil fuel consumption had increased from about 260 to 310 exajoules.
And then just two weeks ago I covered the unfolding energy crisis in the UK. There, the mad rush to close coal plants and build wind turbines had left the country completely subject to just-in-time natural gas deliveries from others, particularly Russia. When a period of calm hit the North Sea wind farms, gas prices spiked by a multiple, and Britain was left closing factories and begging Russia for supply.
And there is plenty more news coming out on the same subject. Here are a couple of examples for today:
China. With the waning of the pandemic, all the rich countries of the West are back to wanting to consume lots of manufactured stuff. But of course the obsession with eliminating fossil fuels has gradually made the industrial energy supply of the rich countries more expensive and less reliable. (This is more true in Europe than in the U.S., but California and New York are doing their best to keep up.). Anyway, no problem, we’ll just get the stuff from China. So in recent months China has been in the mode of ramping up production. That will of course require much more energy. Do you think that it is going to come from wind and solar? Don’t be ridiculous. On September 27, Reuters reported that the ramp-up is causing massive energy shortages around China, and the solution is — coal. “China provincial governor urges more coal imports to resolve power shortages”:
China should work to import more coal from Russia, Indonesia and Mongolia in order to resolve supply shortages now crippling large sections of industry, said Han Jun, governor of the northeastern province of Jilin, one of the worst-hit regions. Speaking to local power firms on Monday, Han said "multiple channels" needed to be set up to guarantee coal supplies, according to the province's official WeChat social media account. He said the province would also dispatch special teams to secure supply contracts in the neighbouring region of Inner Mongolia.
OPEC World Oil Outlook. On September 28 OPEC came out with its annual World Oil Outlook. This Report looks forward through the year 2045. It’s becoming increasingly impossible to get any straight information out of the American and European oil companies, as threats of lawsuits and regulatory actions cause them to mouth green groupthink and to pretend that they are planning to go out of business over the next couple of decades. But OPEC isn’t subject to the same pressures, so their Report is a much better indication of where knowledgeable people think things are going.
And where might that be? Here is OPEC’s chart of projected demand growth for petroleum from now to 2045:
In short, it’s continued growth in consumption all the way through 2045, albeit with the growth leveling off toward the end of the period. But basically, OPEC projects that any and all decreases in oil consumption achieved by the OECD nations (developed countries) will be offset and more by increases in the rest of the world.
OPEC also tries its hand at projections of demand for coal and natural gas over the same period. Here’s their chart of projected demand for natural gas:
It’s increases as far as the eye can see. Yes, they project that demand from the OECD countries will remain essentially flat at just under 30 mboe/d over the whole period; but meanwhile demand from the rest of the world is projected to go up dramatically from about 35 mboe/d to around 55 mboe/d.
In another chart relating to coal, they project a small decline in world demand from around 70 mboe/d today to around 60 mboe/d by 2045. Substantial declines in OECD nations will be offset by almost equivalent increases in places like India and Africa.
Do the people at OPEC know what they are talking about with these projections? I think that these figures are far more likely to be close to the mark than the fantasies coming out of the UN, where the talk is that the entire world economy will reach “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050. For example, here is the UN’s IEA, November 17, 2019, discussing what they call a “1.5 °C scenario that does not rely on negative emissions technologies”:
This . . . [scenario] means a reduction in emissions of around 1.3 billion tonnes CO2 every year from 2018 onwards. That amount is roughly equivalent to the emissions from 15% of the world’s coal fleet or from 40% of today’s global passenger car fleet. The year by which different economies would need to hit net-zero in such a scenario would vary, but the implication for advanced economies is that they would need to reach this point in the 2040s. . . . [D]eveloping economies . . . would all need to be at net-zero by 2050.
Not happening. Do they have any idea how completely absurd this is?
Control of the means of production is still a communist goal. They will never get tired and go away.
We would be further ahead by banning fossil fools, like Biden, Pelosi, Feinstein, Leahy, etc.
“The bureaucrats of the world, particularly in the UN and developed countries, have the idea that they are going to eliminate all use of fossil fuels by somewhere around 2040-50.”
Typical Socialist/ Communist elitist plan. No fossil fuels for you but plenty for me.
How will they accomplish it? They will get people used to shortages of all kinds. They will mandate people use EVs, but (oops) the grid will not have enough wind or solar power to accomodate them.
“How will they accomplish it? They will get people used to shortages of all kinds. “
Yep, and we’re seeing it. The supply chain disruption. Harris let the cat out of the bag earlier this year when her advice was to buy Christmas presents now, (meaning in early August).
Remember, with communism, shared misery is not misery at all.
Like the article states, their plan is to SHUT DOWN fossil fuels. What happens after that is of no concern to them.
Also, all this ‘green energy’ crap is ONLY to give them cover while they continue dismantling the Fossil Fuel (and nuclear, and the hydro somewhat) infrastructure in the West.
The West will figure out their plan, but likely too late.
Or, better still, following their trials and convictions, sentence these fossil fools to be turn into fossil fuels.
They only go away when you bury them. Thus the ‘meme’ from last century, “The only good communist is a dead communist”.
Nearly all the world’s economies are near collapse from debt and mismanagement. I suspect a great crash worse than 2008 is coming based around US/China(possibly even a war) and if that happens the last thing people will be worried about is green energy.
No fossil fuels = No plastics
No plastics = 19th Century lifestyle
The future of energy is Low Energy Nuclear Reactions
https://freerepublic.com/tag/lenr/index?tab=articles
Good one....you win the internet today
That is easy. Worldwide fossil fuel use could go down dramatically — just cut off supplies to every 3rd (and most 2nd) world nations. Let them die in the dark and cold. The elites flying about in jets and limos will never notice — as long as the supply of sex slaves continues.
There is going to be a great harvesting. The MSM will hide it, like they do what the CCP is doing to the Uighurs.
If they get their way, millions of people must starve to death, because their precious renewables cannot support the current population.......and that’s just what they want.
See: Club of Rome, where this whole hoax was hatched.
Remember, with communism, shared misery is not misery at all.
And, eventually, the “free” health care will just be placebos.
Nearly all the world’s economies are near collapse from debt and mismanagement.
Which is why the Powers-that-Be will have to take “measures” to shore themselves up. Including nationalization of industry, MMT and population replacement.
The degree to which the Unions, ANTIFA and Greens are useful idiots will one day become apparent. They will expect their ricebowl to be filled (out of their loyalty) and instead will be sent to a gulag.
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