COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States (23 Sep 2021, as of 06:00 AM ET)

CDC ^ | 23 Sep 2021 | CDC

[BeauBo]

(President Trump's Operation Warp Speed Update)

(Cases and Hospitalizations beginning to plunge - Accelerating their decline even faster on this report (4th week) - Daily Deaths still high (1,961) - Vaccinations very weak on this report (328K/day) - first shots almost halted (19K), possibly due to big downward adjustment from West Virginia announced yesterday)

Administered: 387,821,704 (14,876,579 J&J)

People Vaccinated, At Least One Dose: 212,564,346

Fully Vaccinated: 182,587,334

Boosters: 2.37 Million

[LilFarmer]

Again...

I wanted to see what percentage of breakthrough cases were hospitalized or died.

And I wanted to see what percentage of unvaxxed cases were hospitalized or died.

I was interested in the outcome of the cases.

[BeauBo]

I see your point, that case fatality rate, and case hospitalization rate are not much different between vaccinated and unvaccinated (even though there were 15 times as many cases among the unvaccinated).

This is the reverse of what we have been hearing elsewhere (from multiple sources), about the vaccine effect providing stronger protection from hospitalization or death, than from infection.

Because this is an outlier, I’m hesitant to leap to conclusions. There are several potentially confounding variables. The timeframe is clearly a concern, mixing times with widely varying vaccination rates, with widely (and independently) varying case numbers. Delta variant is likely a significant factor, possibly waning vaccine effectiveness. Controlling for age and comorbidities could be huge.

It is definitely of interest, and something that deserves investigation, and explanation.

Good catch.

[familyop]

Beshear sends additional National Guard assistance to hospitals as COVID cases continue to rise
Northern Kentucky Tribune
By Tom Latek
Kentucky Today
Sep 24th, 2021
https://www.nkytribune.com/2021/09/beshear-sends-additional-national-guard-assistance-to-hospitals-as-covid-cases-continue-to-rise/

[Paul R.]

What % of Mass. residents are vaccinated? As that number goes high, the fraction of hospitalized patients who are vaccinated climbs toward “1” (100%): If everyone is vaccinated, everyone hospitalized for COVID will have been vaccinated.

Recall also that the vaccine mfgrs., and Fauci too, for that matter, never claimed the vaccines would provide good protection against COVID infection.* And that was for the much less infectious, and probably less evasive “original” COVID — in an environment where fewer people relaxed on mitigation (the “relaxation” due to fatigue, resistance to continuing mandates, and mistaken belief the vaccines do a good job preventing infection.) NO vaccine for adults can demonstrate high efficacy in an environment full of repeated heavy exposures of a super infectious pathogen, and a lot of people with immune system / health “weaknesses”. (Kids’ vaccines are often cited, but incorrectly: Kids are at a different point, a “more receptive learning point”, one might say, in developing vaccine triggered resistance to diseases like mumps that are quite dangerous to adults.) (Kinda like how they pick up on computer skills!)

If exposures are heavy enough, maybe vaccinated vs. unvaccinated is less of a factor in development of serious cases? Vaccine dosages were kept small due to high concerns about safety, with Moderna being more aggressive than Pfizer - which seems to be showing up now.

* “the vaccine mfgrs., and Fauci too, for that matter, never claimed the vaccines would provide good protection against infection.” At least certainly not after the clinical trials were complete. In fact, I am wondering what major Trump Admin. health care official did? I don’t recall Redfield doing so. (I could have missed it. Not Gottlieb. (I could have missed that too, but, Gottlieb seems to be pretty sharp, and it was his FDA that discovered the total CDC screwup of early tests, and hung the CDC out for their utter incompetence.) OTOH, certainly the CDC’s public awareness TV campaign has put out a lot of garbage advice throughout this whole COVID debacle, but I’d think people would at least “second source” beyond that. Fauci got body slammed for suggesting masks and mitigation would still be necessary after vaccinations, so, I can’t pin this one on him. Who else? Biden’s people? (I generally ignore their statements.) Hmmm...

I also wonder if naturally acquired immunity is becoming a high & of the unvaccinated portion of the population?

Many (if not all) replications involve “some” error in the copy. Most are inconsequential. By the same token, if sequencing is done to determine one variant vs. another, most mutations have to be ignored, with only those judged “significant” determining one variant vs. another. Could a seemingly insignificant mutation “get by”, esp. in a few localities, and cause increased fatalities for a time before getting “caught”?

All the above? (Perhaps, I think!)

[Paul R.]

Oops, that was supposed to be “I also wonder if naturally acquired immunity is becoming a high % of the unvaccinated portion of the population?”

[ransomnote]

LilFarmer wrote:

Did you see Singapore? Looks a lot like a Israel now:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/

82% vaccinated

I hadn't seen it. Thanks for the link.

I started trying to nail down which fake 'vaccines' they are using but it's hard to sort it out - many vaccines, but the one from China, Sinovac, is not part of Sinapores official programm so they will recognize it as a 'vaccine' but the patient will not be eligible for the worthless little amount of money given to compensate those harmed by the vax, if only you can prove to the government its was the vax...

Quotes below from this website:

MOH | COVID-19 Vaccination

Full 'narrative' in Singapore. 'Safe for breastfeeding women' because everyone's doing it (internationally) blah blah blah..."

Pfizer 'only' for children 12-17

"Falsehood on COVID-19 Vaccination Links with Stroke and Heart Attack
MOH is aware of falsehoods circulating that the COVID-19 vaccination has clear and causal links with stroke and heart attack. "

"Vaccine Booster Programme 
To maintain the high level of vaccine protection, we will be rolling out the vaccine booster programme from 14 Sep onwards for Seniors, Residents of Aged Care Facilities and Immunocompromised Persons.  Find out more here. "

[ransomnote]

Dems Seek to Abolish Trump-Created Space Force
https://www.newsmax.com ^ | By Eric Mack | Thursday, 23 September 2021 08:43 PM

Posted on 9/24/2021, 6:02:50 AM by Red Badger

[dynoman]

“Vaccines did not roll out en masse until April, and only reached 50% in August. “

With that information look at the daily deaths, they had decreased off of the January-March highs but vaccinations apparently were not the reason they decreased.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#graph-deaths-daily

The “Total Coronavirus Deaths” trend is also interesting from this perspective.

[LilFarmer]

Yep, I’ve noticed that. Interesting, isn’t it?

[absalom01]

There is cause to hope that hospitalizations in KY are peaking this week, or have peaked.

Infections peaked two weeks ago, on 9/5. Rt, the effective transmission rate, dropped to 1.0 on 9/3, and is currently 0.82.

Data, as from the start of this CCP created pandemic, are noisy, but provide some information. A great graphical summary is here:

https://covidestim.org/

[dynoman]

I think you nailed it with your summation in post 47. That matches everything I have been reading from a couple dozen high quality accounts I follow in Twitter. It’s what seems to boiling to the top of the data I see.

[dynoman]

"but this shows that according to their numbers, the vaccines are not working."

A comparison of age adjusted all-cause mortality rates in England between vaccinated and unvaccinated
"The UK Government's own data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety." http://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/09/all-cause-mortality-rates-in-england.html— Robert W Malone, MD (@RWMaloneMD) September 24, 2021

[firebrand]

Of course it’s interesting. Anything that turns the truth precisely on its head is interesting to you folks.

[dynoman]

Who’s “you folks”?

[Paul R.]

Interesting catch by you, too:

there were 15 times as many cases among the unvaccinated

That seems extraordinarily high. Could it be due to some sort of demographic or behavior difference that gets enhanced by the R0 of Delta?

Just looking at the GA curves on Worldometers (I didn't run actual numbers, as I did for my analysis of the USA), not only is this Delta wave very nearly as strong in cases as the previous wave, the fatalities are nearly in lockstep too. Ie., if I did run the GA numbers, the daily average CFR for both waves is going to be dang close, and, I would expect a few more "lagging" fatality reports to come in for Delta.

So... yeah, I'd say "Lil" is correct on this one.

I looked at a few other states (throwing out FL because of they way they report.) TX for example is doing a little better on Delta CFR, but is still uncomfortably close to the GA experience. OTOH, KY has had a just awful Delta wave in terms of cases, its' highest yet, but it's CFR is definitely reduced from the prior wave. Several other states show the reduced CFR numbers for Delta, too.

Possibly there are state to state differences in testing aggressiveness (beyond that generated by apparent symptoms) or effectiveness?

Possibly we are seeing differences in availability of the monoclonal antibody treatments? I will say, at considerable risk of getting flamed, that states where I'd expect better mitigation seem to have lower Delta-COVID CFR's than in the prior wave. Perhaps this is another expression of exposure levels making a difference? That is, if moderately exposed in a high cases environment (ie., the mask helped some), one may be infected, but at this level the vaccine can still ward off a serious case. If one is highly exposed, such as a potload of virions getting into one's lungs right off the bat, maybe the vaccine makes little difference -- one's immune system is overwhelmed regardless. (?) Perhaps this is happening in GA and (maybe) in TX? I am in KY a lot, and I'd say once Delta got going there, mitigation kicked back in moderately well. KY's State Legislature booted Gov. Beshear's mandate powers, but, with masking now up to local school boards, nearly all are sticking with it. In most stores, masking is requested and most patrons do so. (Feed stores seem to be an exception - hmmm - self interest in selling Ivermectin? Or just hard headed farmers?) I also wonder if a nasty new variant could have escaped sequencing tests to date? Seems unlikely?

[LilFarmer]

Here is why the unvaxxed cases/hospitalizations/deaths in the GA data are disproportionately high compared to unvaxxed:

1. The data runs from Jan 2 until now.

2. Our biggest wave was in January and started coming down in March. See https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/georgia/

3. The shot did not roll out until AFTER this wave, and was not available to the general public until April.

4. We did not reach 50% vaxxed until August. (According the dph, it is actually closer to 44% vaxxed.)

5. The unvaxxed data includes those with one shot and those with the second shot within 14 days.

So, there were hundreds of thousands of cases before vaccines were widely available (it is nearly impossible to count since the data is not searchable or downloadable as a excel file). At one point there were over 10,000 reported cases per day in January.

That is the explanation of the high number of unvaxxed compared to the vaxxed in the state vaccine data for all three metrics.

I am tracking for a trend as well. I have 3 weeks done so far, and the gap is closing.

I just saw this from their site, notice the demographics

Total COVID-19 breakthrough cases* reported to GDPH as of September 20, 2021
51,104

Female
30,530 (59.74%)

People aged ≥65 years
12,253 (23.98%)

Total Hospitalizations
1,867 (3.65%)

***Total Deaths
538 (1.05%)

COVID-19 related deaths
441 (0.86%)

***Note that for the months leading up to this, if you died WITH covid you were counted a covid death. It appears they are not counting every vaxxed death as a covid death if they died WITH covid. If they did, the death rate would be identical.

Caveat: I am going off their data. I do not believe the tests are reliable. I personally know many who have been sick who did not test positive and several who were not sick who did test positive. I showed this to a nurse friend of mine who works in a local hospital and she said that the vaxxed in the hospital are at least three times the numbers they are reporting.

[BeauBo]

Yes, It looks like Kentucky, and it’s neighbors, have turned the corner on the Delta wave.

Hold on to your britches, because the drop is usually steep for a few weeks, once it gets going.

Enjoy the ride!

[familyop]

That’s good news!

[BeauBo]

“ I am tracking for a trend as well. I have 3 weeks done so far, and the gap is closing”

That would be interesting to others here, I’m pretty sure.

More recent data would reduce some of the confounding (or a least confusing) variables, like mixing periods of high vaccination with low, wave periods with high case numbers with lulls in transmission, vaccinations going disproportionally to the oldest and sickest first, potential waning of vaccine effectiveness, and the impact of the Delta variant.

It’s true that vaccines were made available to the general public in April, but they were being administered to the most vulnerable (like Nursing Home residents, who disproportionately accounted for deaths) back in January - at Warp Speed.

It is hard to isolate and measure one effect, when several are independently and simultaneously impacting the totals (and their relative strength kept changing (both independently and dependently)) throughout the timeframe in question.

Another factor might be that effective treatment (e.g. antibody infusions) is now saving more unvaccinated, who otherwise would have been hospitalized or died.

[LilFarmer]

12.5% were vaccinated by April 1 according to this: https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/state/georgia

Here are some of the trends that I’ve found:

Hospitalizations
Week 1 to week2 - Vaxxed - increase of .08%, unvaxxed - increase of .16%
Week 2 to week 3 - Vaxxed - increase of .05%, unvaxxed - increase of .04%

Deaths
Week 1 to week 2 -Vaxxed - increase of .06%, unvaxxed - increase of .01%
Week 2 to week 3 - Vaxxed - increase of .11%, unvaxxed - increase of .04%