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To: LilFarmer

I see your point, that case fatality rate, and case hospitalization rate are not much different between vaccinated and unvaccinated (even though there were 15 times as many cases among the unvaccinated).

This is the reverse of what we have been hearing elsewhere (from multiple sources), about the vaccine effect providing stronger protection from hospitalization or death, than from infection.

Because this is an outlier, I’m hesitant to leap to conclusions. There are several potentially confounding variables. The timeframe is clearly a concern, mixing times with widely varying vaccination rates, with widely (and independently) varying case numbers. Delta variant is likely a significant factor, possibly waning vaccine effectiveness. Controlling for age and comorbidities could be huge.

It is definitely of interest, and something that deserves investigation, and explanation.

Good catch.


62 posted on 09/23/2021 9:51:51 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo

Beshear sends additional National Guard assistance to hospitals as COVID cases continue to rise
Northern Kentucky Tribune
By Tom Latek
Kentucky Today
Sep 24th, 2021
https://www.nkytribune.com/2021/09/beshear-sends-additional-national-guard-assistance-to-hospitals-as-covid-cases-continue-to-rise/


63 posted on 09/23/2021 11:01:09 PM PDT by familyop ("For they that sleep with dogs, shall rise with fleas" (John Webster, "The White Devil" 1612).)
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To: BeauBo; LilFarmer
Interesting catch by you, too:

there were 15 times as many cases among the unvaccinated

That seems extraordinarily high. Could it be due to some sort of demographic or behavior difference that gets enhanced by the R0 of Delta?

Just looking at the GA curves on Worldometers (I didn't run actual numbers, as I did for my analysis of the USA), not only is this Delta wave very nearly as strong in cases as the previous wave, the fatalities are nearly in lockstep too. Ie., if I did run the GA numbers, the daily average CFR for both waves is going to be dang close, and, I would expect a few more "lagging" fatality reports to come in for Delta.

So... yeah, I'd say "Lil" is correct on this one.

I looked at a few other states (throwing out FL because of they way they report.) TX for example is doing a little better on Delta CFR, but is still uncomfortably close to the GA experience. OTOH, KY has had a just awful Delta wave in terms of cases, its' highest yet, but it's CFR is definitely reduced from the prior wave. Several other states show the reduced CFR numbers for Delta, too.

Possibly there are state to state differences in testing aggressiveness (beyond that generated by apparent symptoms) or effectiveness?

Possibly we are seeing differences in availability of the monoclonal antibody treatments? I will say, at considerable risk of getting flamed, that states where I'd expect better mitigation seem to have lower Delta-COVID CFR's than in the prior wave. Perhaps this is another expression of exposure levels making a difference? That is, if moderately exposed in a high cases environment (ie., the mask helped some), one may be infected, but at this level the vaccine can still ward off a serious case. If one is highly exposed, such as a potload of virions getting into one's lungs right off the bat, maybe the vaccine makes little difference -- one's immune system is overwhelmed regardless. (?) Perhaps this is happening in GA and (maybe) in TX? I am in KY a lot, and I'd say once Delta got going there, mitigation kicked back in moderately well. KY's State Legislature booted Gov. Beshear's mandate powers, but, with masking now up to local school boards, nearly all are sticking with it. In most stores, masking is requested and most patrons do so. (Feed stores seem to be an exception - hmmm - self interest in selling Ivermectin? Or just hard headed farmers?) I also wonder if a nasty new variant could have escaped sequencing tests to date? Seems unlikely?

75 posted on 09/24/2021 6:19:05 PM PDT by Paul R. (You know your pullets are dumb if they don't recognize a half Whopper as food!)
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