Posted on 08/22/2021 7:10:46 PM PDT by Conserv
On Aug. 12, the U.S. Census Bureau released detailed redistricting data that states will use to draw their congressional lines. These new maps are important because they will not only help determine which party has an advantage moving into the 2022 midterms, but also influence whether members of the U.S. House of Representatives seek reelection, run for another office or leave political life entirely.
Indeed, complications from redistricting may have influenced two Democratic House members in highly competitive seats to announce their exits recently, portending trouble for their party in next year’s midterm elections. Perhaps most notably, longtime Wisconsin Rep. Ron Kind announced on Aug. 10 that he wouldn’t seek reelection. With Kind retiring, it will be challenging for Democrats to hold on to his rural, western Wisconsin seat, which is about 9 percentage points more Republican than the country as a whole, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric.1 And in Pennsylvania, Rep. Conor Lamb, a relative newcomer, is leaving his Pittsburgh-area seat, which is 2 points more Republican than the country as a whole. This district could be a tough one for Democrats to retain, especially if redistricting makes his seat even more Republican. Lamb’s motivations are different from Kind’s, however: Lamb is running for retiring Republican Pat Toomey’s seat in the Senate.
Of course, House Democrats are sitting out reelection for numerous reasons, but it’s an important thing to track, as retirements and runs for other offices can hint at what members expect the midterm landscape to look like. Take the 2018 midterm cycle, when about two times as many House Republicans as Democrats decided to leave office ahead of that year’s “blue wave.” And while House Democrats are currently nowhere near the 39 Republicans who threw in the towel before the 2018 election, these departures are still an early warning for them, especially considering Democrats hold a narrow 222-to-213 seat majority,2 meaning Republicans need a net gain of just five seats to capture the chamber. The fact that Democrats may be in trouble shouldn’t come as a surprise, though, since the president’s party usually loses ground in midterm House elections.
Overall, 16 representatives have announced their departures, but in another ominous sign for Democrats, the type of seats the two parties are leaving open differs dramatically, as the table below shows. Seven of the eight outgoing Democrats represent districts that are less than 5 points more Democratic than the country as a whole — including the seats held by Kind and Lamb — which could make those seats easier for the GOP to flip next year. By comparison, only one Republican is leaving a seat that’s less than 10 points more Republican, meaning retirements and departures from office haven’t left the GOP as exposed.
16 House members are leaving office so far Members of the U.S. House of Representatives retiring or seeking another office ahead of the 2022 election, as of 5 p.m. Eastern on Aug. 18, 2021
DISTRICT REPRESENTATIVE PARTY HOW THEY’RE LEAVING… PARTISAN LEAN FL-10 Val Demings D Senate run D+20.8 TX-34 Filemón Vela D Retiring D+4.8 AZ-02 Ann Kirkpatrick D Retiring D+2.3 OH-13 Tim Ryan D Senate run D+0.3 FL-13 Charlie Crist D Governor run R+1.0 PA-17 Conor Lamb D Senate run R+2.3 IL-17 Cheri Bustos D Retiring R+4.7 WI-03 Ron Kind D Retiring R+8.7 NY-01 Lee Zeldin R Governor run R+9.6 NY-23 Tom Reed R Retiring R+15.2 GA-10 Jody Hice R Secretary of state run R+27.8 AL-05 Mo Brooks R Senate run R+32.4 NC-13 Ted Budd R Senate run R+38.2 MO-04 Vicky Hartzler R Senate run R+39.3 MO-07 Billy Long R Senate run R+47.7 TX-08 Kevin Brady R Retiring R+49.7
Additionally, more Democrats (four) than Republicans (two) have announced they aren’t running for reelection or seeking another office — what we call “pure” retirements — and while it’s still early, a continuation of that trend would be another indication that Democrats are concerned about the midterm environment. Indeed, there’s been a tendency in midterm years for the president’s party to have more pure retirements than the out-of-office party. And at this point, the pure retirements for Republicans have more to do with scandal (in the case of New York Rep. Tom Reed, who faces allegations of sexual misconduct) or the loss of ranking member status due to GOP term limits on leadership posts (in the case of Texas Rep. Kevin Brady), and less to do with redistricting woes.
As noted earlier — as well as back in May — concerns about redistricting have certainly played a role in many of the Democratic departures, such as those of Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan and Texas Rep. Filemón Vela. And take again Democrats’ most recent departures, Kind and Lamb. Even though they don’t hail from states where the GOP alone controls redistricting (it’s split partisan control in both states), they too may be worried about redistricting. Each barely won reelection in 2020, and new district lines to fortify their chances of winning again aren’t a safe bet given that certain geographical realities make it unlikely that their seats get much bluer. For instance, Kind’s 3rd Congressional District in Wisconsin has swung sharply to the right in recent years, and three of the four districts it borders in the state are solidly GOP-leaning, so unless the district absorbs Democratic-leaning turf near the deep-blue city of Madison, new lines aren’t likely to make the R+9 seat significantly more Democratic. Meanwhile, it might not appear that Lamb is abandoning ship by running for Senate, but Pennsylvania as a whole is about R+3 and could end up being more Democratic than Lamb’s district after new lines are drawn. That’s because Pennsylvania will lose one district in reapportionment, so the remaining districts must add population, including Lamb’s 17th Congressional District, which is already R+2. That could necessitate adding population from GOP-leaning turf in nearby districts, and/or Lamb’s district could also lose some of its more Democratic-leaning areas to the Pittsburgh-based 18th Congressional District, too, which needs to add even more population than the 17th District does.
It’s hard to overstate the impact redistricting might have on Democrats deciding to leave the House. Overall, Republicans will draw lines for about 2.5 times as many seats as Democrats. Republicans will draw the lines in four of the eight Democratic open seats, and in six of the eight Republican open seats. This means that four Democratic representatives — Ryan and Vela as well as Florida’s Charlie Crist and Val Demings — won’t be defending seats next year in states where Republicans control redistricting. And outside of Demings, who has launched a Senate campaign to challenge Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, the other three represent competitive districts that could become more GOP-leaning. (Only Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick’s Arizona seat will be drawn by a commission.) Conversely, Democrats will draw lines for only two of the GOP-held seats — those of New York Reps. Lee Zeldin and Reed — as well as retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos’s district in Illinois. That could enable Democrats to pick up Zeldin’s district — Reed’s district is more likely to become a GOP vote sink — and also maybe protect Bustos’s seat, but they simply have fewer opportunities to redraw districts in their favor than the GOP.
There wasn't a "blue wave".
There was, however, Assistant Democrats assisting Democrats.
More important is what kind of Republican will the people elect? Constitutional Patriots or, Globalist RINO’s who merely run as the former and are in fact the latter. We have elected quite a few fraudsters.
A great many Never-Trumpers ran as Tea Party Conservatives and then revealed themselves to be anything but once elected. The dems do not seem to have this problem. We have it in spades.
The recently elected SC Justices who were supposed Rock Solid Conservatives, or so we were lead to believe, are another example.
Many Conservatives are either Stealth RINO’s or Libs from Conservative areas that hide this until they attain their goal position and then count on the power of Incumbency or, lifetime appointments to keep them there.
Pretty good chance of flipping Bustos IL-17 seat to R even with gerrymandering.
I did a very interesting spreadsheet comparing Ohio 2008 Democrat turnout [The Lightbringer] versus Ohio 2020 Democrat turnout [Droolin Joe]
You have four "metropolitan areas" in Ohio - Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus and Dayton.
It appears as though Cincinnati metro and Columbus metro were rigged for joek - but Cleveland and Dayton stood down.
Does that make any sense to you?
I'm not an Ohio guy, so I don't know much about your politics.
Looking at the spreadsheet, it's clear as day.
bammy 2008 biteme 2020 bam 2008 minus Cincinnati metro joek 2020 Brown 7,503 37.21% Brown 4,380 20.72% 3,123 Butler 66,030 37.94% Butler 69,613 37.28% -3,583 Clermont 31,611 33.02% Clermont 34,092 30.79% -2,481 Hamilton 225,213 52.98% Hamilton 246,266 57.15% -21,053 Warren 33,398 31.38% Warren 46,069 33.76% -12,671 Cleveland metro Cuyahoga 458,422 68.70% Cuyahoga 416,176 66.36% 42,246 Geauga 21,250 41.47% Geauga 21,201 37.84% 49 Lake 60,155 49.45% Lake 55,514 42.45% 4,641 Lorain 85,276 58.07% Lorain 75,667 47.96% 9,609 Medina 40,924 45.14% Medina 39,800 37.53% 1,124 Columbus metro [state capital area] Delaware 36,653 39.59% Delaware 57,735 45.69% -21,082 Fairfield 29,250 40.54% Fairfield 31,224 37.48% -1,974 Franklin 334,709 59.58% Franklin 409,144 64.68% -74,435 Hocking 6,259 48.09% Hocking 3,880 28.00% 2,379 Licking 33,932 41.09% Licking 33,055 35.02% 877 Madison 6,532 37.30% Madison 5,698 28.65% 834 Morrow 6,177 37.03% Morrow 4,048 21.92% 2,129 Perry 7,261 47.04% Perry 4,098 24.57% 3,163 Pickaway 9,077 38.16% Pickaway 7,304 25.80% 1,773 Union 8,761 35.07% Union 11,141 33.22% -2,380 Dayton metro Greene 33,540 40.06% Greene 34,798 39.26% -1,258 Miami 18,372 34.72% Miami 15,663 26.97% 2,709 Montgomery 145,997 52.32% Montgomery 135,064 50.18% 10,933
Negative number means joek got more votes than The Kenyan.
I also want to make the guess that Cleveland and Dayton are a good approximation of the REAL turnout in metro areas in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
But the population loss was in the Cleveland area!! That should cost the Dems a seat.
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