Posted on 08/18/2021 4:07:08 PM PDT by nickcarraway
We may see a decoupling between cases and deaths in the fourth COVID wave, experts say
The rise of the Delta variant in the U.S. has led to outbreaks of COVID-19 across the country. But as more people get vaccinated, the death toll in the fourth wave of the pandemic may not spike as high as it did in previous surges, according to experts.
Increasing vaccination rates among Americans may result in a decoupling between infections and deaths -- meaning that new cases might rise more steeply than fatalities.
This trend was evident across the pond: At the peak of the U.K.'s most recent spike in mid-July, the 7-day average of new daily infections was around 47,000 cases (approaching its 60,000 peak from January). But so far this month, the country has seen around 80 deaths per day.
"In the past with that level of infection, we would have seen over 1,000 deaths a day," said Graham Medley, PhD, professor of infectious disease modeling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Before vaccines, Medley said that the number of deaths was the clearest metric to assess the severity of the pandemic. But since the U.K. has fully vaccinated the majority of high-risk individuals -- more than 90% of its oldest and most vulnerable populations, according to government data -- "deaths are no longer the most obvious outcome of infection to the public."
There are lower vaccination rates in younger age groups, and as a result more young people are being hospitalized this time around, Medley noted.
"The Delta variant is able to overcome the vaccine, especially one dose, in terms of its ability to infect, but the vaccine is still very effective against Delta when it comes to death," Medley said. "Vaccination has changed this pandemic for the better."
A similar trend may follow in the U.S., according to experts. However, in areas with low vaccination rates, death tolls may mirror earlier pandemic waves.
"We will see an uptake in infections, but I don't think that we'll see a significant drive in hospitalization and death in the areas that have very high vaccination rates," said Syra Madad, DHSc, MSc, an infectious disease epidemiologist based in New York City. Communities with a 50% to 60% vaccination rate will likely be protected from the most severe outcomes, she added.
Currently, the 7-day average of new daily COVID cases in the U.S. is nearly 100,000. Average daily deaths, which lag a few weeks behind new infection data, are around 450.
One of the reasons why there may be a decoupling between daily infections and deaths in the U.S. is because the majority of the elderly are vaccinated. Just over 80% of people ages 65 and older -- the group at highest risk for hospitalization and death -- have been fully inoculated against COVID-19.
"The surge of death that we would have seen is blunted because of our success thus far in vaccinating the most vulnerable," said Leana Wen, MD, MSc, an emergency physician and health policy scholar at George Washington University in Washington D.C. and former health commissioner of Baltimore.
"However, we are already seeing an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, the majority of which are preventable," Wen added. "That is truly tragic."
Ravina Kullar, PharmD, MPH, an infectious diseases expert and epidemiologist from the Infectious Diseases Society of America, noted that the U.S. may see deaths increase more steeply in areas where less than 40% of the population is vaccinated.
"We've already seen a surge in hospitalizations," she said. "I think that we are definitely going to see an increase in deaths, particularly in those who are unvaccinated and individuals who are vaccinated that have high risk factors."
The rise of vaccine-induced immunity will protect a majority of people from the most severe outcomes of COVID-19. But Medley disagreed with the idea that the vaccine has caused a "decoupling" between cases and deaths. Infections and deaths are still linked -- the vaccine just adds a layer of protection.
"It's just like wearing a seat belt in the car," Medley said. "It reduces your chance of dying, but if you crash into a wall, the risk is still there."
Why it could become far less deadly? We already know it is far less deadly.
Hmm well let’s see. 2/3 the peak infections.. but not even a 10th of the deaths.. and nation is about 60-70% vaccinated.
But it’s the vaccines that are lowering the death rates?!?!
Bullspit.
Would expect 200 ish deaths a day if the vaccines were the reason.. fact it’s lower than that means either this strain is less deadly or our treatment methods have gotten better
Uh....because the number of places that can actually differentiate the Delta variant is about 5 % of the typically unreliable PCR testing locations?
Don’t worry. The lambda panic soon to follow.
Mike Rowe said the following:
The fact is, millions of reasonable Americans have every right to feel confused and skeptical. Those people you refer to, Steve – the ones now telling us that we can “get back to normal just as soon as everyone is vaccinated” – those are the same people who said, “two weeks to flatten the curve!”
Those are the same people who told us that masks were “useless” before they told us they were “critical.”
Those are the same people who told us that a return to normalcy would occur just as soon as “the most vulnerable” among us were vaccinated. Then, just as soon as “half the population” was vaccinated.
Then, just as soon as we achieved “herd immunity.” Those are the same people who told us they wouldn’t trust ANY vaccine developed under the last administration.
Now, those very same people are belittling the skeptics!
More tests more cases...in Florida it is cover cases on the tv....so everyone runs out and gets tested...
School started here last Tuesday guess what they test all the kids more cases...
The girl down the street test positive...but was not sick..ten others in the class tested pos...have no idea if any were sick or not
Guess the number of kids under sixteen who have died from March 1,2020..TEN
It’s welcome to become less deadly any time. I have been waiting for the Worldometer Daily New Deaths graph to reverse course in response to all the “less deadly” news, but it keeps going up.
And yet again, they fail to count the individuals who recovered from the virus and have natural antibodies.
Exactly.
And most of them were immuno-compromised or had serious medical conditions.
The Delta variant test is specialized, and very expensive. Is this so hospitals can make more money?
It’s a lot of things. Vaccines are protecting the group that’s most vulnerable - the elderly. Treatments HAVE gotten a lot better. And younger, presumably healthier people are getting sick - while some get hospitalized and some even die, most have milder cases or, if hospitalized, stay a shorter time and don’t progress to ICU or ventilators.
the governments across the pond didn’t open their border with mexico and distribute hundreds of thousands of disease carrying invaders across their country during a so called “global pandemic”...
why should we believe anything you or our government preaches about stopping the spread of anything at this point in time?...
It is far less deadly!
It’s nothing to worry about unless we see the really bad people dying. DOJ criminals, fed police state thugs, communist politicians, fake media stars.
That’s bad news for Biden.
...or many people (like my wife and I and a number of our friends and relatives - unvaxxed - have had Covid and are now immune if the past is any indication of the future).
Everyone is talking about delta but because of some lesser variant Fda stopped the use of eli lilly infusion..its ridiculous
And the U.S. didn't "open the(ir) border," with Mexico it's been open for more than 20 years. The only two times in recent memory that it slowed down were in the 2008/9 economic crash and the height of the pandemic.
No president or Congress slowed it down.
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