no, i don’t think you’re wrong. in fact what you are saying is plausible and even reasonable. i’m with you. stand your ground against folks like “discostu, querty, and others on this thread, which i include since he’s improperly and incompetently attacking you with a raw statistic, in my view.
(yes i’m an engineer and am very used to using statistics and probability correctly and appropriately in my field). and yes, i’ve seen a bunch of these statistical abusers throw out the “excess deaths” number from the cdc of 500K.
but in the same breath they never tell you the following facts:
1. lately, the cdc’s numbers and pronouncements have proven untrustworthy. many md’s and researchers are questioning much of it.
2. the cdc’s numbers followed excess deaths of previous years until late march when the dropped a covid19 new code for death to incentivise that reporting. there is a massive spike and precipitous drop in the “all cause” data after that date. you tell me why? were they holding on to all the covid19 death certificates until that date? in statistics and probability we engineers call that kind of spike impossible in data coming from natural populations.
3. since march covid19 was called as the cause of death even with multiple other co-morbitdities in play (this is a fact i’ve confirmed from the accounts morticians (yup), nurses and doctors first hand, even with no covid19 test to back it up. do you think there might be some confusion and even malfeasance in the death numbers after late march?
4. the cdc’s own all cause death rate (which is an honest statistic with a denominator, unlike the raw number thrown out by discotu) for the entire population of the US changed from .8% .9% to 1.0%. an increase of just .1 %. well within the noise of the population which didn’t decline in 2020 and which was continuing to increase in both overall size and the elderly cohort. so how come we get 500K deaths but no significant decrease in the population or death rate?
anyway stand your ground. there is a lot more going on here than meets the eye. my belief is that the cdc is playing fast and loose with the numbers, and classically lying with statistics, or is using raw numbers that are rife with error. the totality of their numbers just don’t hold together, even with a cursory examination.
most likely eventually the “excess deaths” argument falls on our side, not theirs.
Problem is you’re advicing to ignore the CDC numbers, but the person is STILL USING the CDC numbers. VAER comes from CDC. So basically you’re saying “go with confirmation bias, like the numbers that agree with you, ignore the rest”.
Which is basically telling the person to lie to themselves.
Wrong advice. It’s not about standing your ground, it’s about using your head. Hats fashionable anymore, so it’s not a hat-rack. If you’re going to use CDC numbers you need to use ALL of them. And bother to understand what they mean. VAER is for reporting ALL medical incidents that happen shortly after ANY vaccine. A lot of that stuff will be unrelated, but they want to track that data to be able to find out about odd side effect. Like the prednisone temper problem. If you’re not finding out about people getting hospitalized for getting into fights after taking a medicine you’re not able to see that those numbers are high and maybe there’s something there.
And what you especially can’t do is take your convenient numbers and then multiple times 10 just cause. That’s called lying.