[DoodleBob]

I agree, it's important that people don't jump to conclusions.

The primary problem with straight-lining Scotland's fatalities is that it ignores seasonality in death.

The majority of deaths in most countries can be attributed to causes that feature a distinct seasonal pattern. The figure depicts the relative monthly frequencies of nine selected causes of death in the United States for women and men combined for the years 1959–2014. The reported number of counts in parentheses in the title of each panel is the actual number of deaths.

If we eyeball the July bars in these bar charts, and assume Scotland's seasonal pattern follows that of the US, fatalities in July are about 7% of total yearly fatalities. Applying that percentage to Scotland, the July fatalities should be 3,990. This would imply that Scotland had roughly 1500 "extra" fatalities in July.

Something is up.

[Jane Long]

Thx!!

Shocking, regardless which of the two numbers.

[Gene Eric]

Good comparisons.

The SARS decline was initially much sharper than the Influenza graph. Furthermore, as the vax rolled out, the SARS decline diminished.

I suspect the vax rollout enjoyed an existing SARS decline, but possibly accomplished little or made things worse given the growing reports of chronic suffering and casualties. I also suspect the “delta variant” is the scapegoat for the apparent vax disaster — the reason for the “necessary” course correction.