Posted on 06/20/2021 6:59:27 AM PDT by bert
Free Republic Inflation June 2021 Posting
There are a few of the 20 selected grocery items that have increased in price. At the Food City Chain where I get the price data, there is no across the board increase in prices. In general there is no price increase to report in the June monthly report
As a Media Template, Inflation is a major story of the day. As a result of Biden policies, many think there will be inflation. Milton Friedman taught us that “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it cannot occur without a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” The $2 Trillion Covid relief plus the 15$ minimum wage plus the forgiveness of college loans all pump money into the economy.
Those actions are the very definition of monetary phenomena. The Bureau of Economic Analysis keeps us informed on the inflation rate but fails in one respect. The inflation information provided leaves out food. So, in the era of Pelosi/Biden induced inflation, bert has developed a basket of 20 common food products and will track prices and compute the inflation rate on the basket total and each individual item at a one month interval.
The reason given for excluding food in the BEA inflation figure is because there are so many variables that effect prices that monetary inflation gets lost in the shuffle. That fact seems to be in evidence in this month’s numbers. The Big Mac that represents all food groups declined in price. So, there will be no attempt to correct for other variables.
One we know that is already happening is China. China is in terrible food shape. Crop failure, massive flooding, swine disease and poor management of stockpiles have forced China to import phenomenally large quantities of soy beans and corn. Brazil is sold out of soy beans. American farmers will pick up all he slack. So, there will be a large China induced food price inflation.
Being bert and being conservative, I choose to ignore China and blame all the food price increases on Pelosi/Biden The second monthly food inflation presentation is posted below. There is no general food inflation noted for the June Report although other inflation is the news of the day Will it happen?
As President Trump was fond of saying……..We’ll see
You’re 6 months off. Today’s Walmart rib eye steak is already $13.97/lb and choice angus thin cut is $16.47.
We used to hardly ever, ever, ever eat beans and rice. It’s become a regular meal.
Careful using older recipes. Canned goods used to be 16 oz.
Some canned tomatoes are as small as 10 oz.
I posted about small tuna cans up thread. You now need 3 cans for recipes calling for 2. FYI, feed the kitties the drained water.
President Biden would say job well done that your now eating Beans & Rice. Bringing aMeriKa down to 3rd world standards.
“ To: Hojczyk; Bikkuri
You’re 6 months off. Today’s Walmart rib eye steak is already $13.97/lb and choice angus thin cut is $16.47.
We used to hardly ever, ever, ever eat beans and rice. It’s become a regular meal.”
You can still buy a 5 quart bucket of ice cream, but you may need a second mortgage to do it.
Covid has completely done away with holiday sales in my area of TX. We had previous bought and frozen chicken for Thanksgiving. Had a previously bought frozen ham for Christmas. The freezer is getting bare. No such thing as reduced expiration date meat sales anymore. We still have limited items. No sales for Father’s Day. Doubt they’ll even lower hot dogs for the 4th.
Those pull in 3 channels here.
Cable goes all pixalated on summer nights and during the day goes out half a dozen times for a few seconds every hour.
Internet is down half the time the other half the time it struggles along at 18 mbps.
It’s c r a p. And they’ll laugh if you request a refund. Been this way for 30 years so don’t see any improvements within my lifetime.
There is a certain quantity of money. If that quantity is not increased, i.e. with inflation, then the rise in price of one commodity will lead to the increased scarcity of that commodity and/or to a lowering of the prices of other commodities and services. With an increasing level of the quantity of money then the average of all prices will rise, though the effect will be uneven. It is economics and it is common sense. As a larger portion of a static money supply must go into one sector of the economy, transportation/fuel perhaps, then there is a smaller portion of the money supply available to all other sectors and their prices will fall.
The Quantity Theory of Money as expressed by Friedman is:
MV = PQ
where
M is the money supply (all forms)
V is the velocity of money
P is a price level index
Q is real output.
In simple terms, PQ is the real output and MV is the dollars chasing that output. Your analysis assumes that V is constant, and the article points out, this is not the case. The money supply is not static.
You neglected the IF. Velocity of money is fantasy. It does not matter to the quantity of money if the dollars bounce around a lot or a little. That is a different concern altogether. Milton’s belief in the superiority of fiat money taints his entire work.
Eggs at Food City were 49 cents a dozen a couple of weeks back...every month or so, the 80% ground beef goes on sale for $2.99 per pound...2% milk actually went DOWN to $1.99 recently...purchased asparagus for $1.49’lb yesterday...the deals are out there. :-)
Those deals you speak of are called “loss leaders”.
Ok I guess I have to make a trip to the grocery store. Take a picture and bring you back to reality. Earth to bert. Earth to bert!
Yes and no...around here we see slow price build ups for things just before the Holidays you mention...then oh my goodness “big sales”/sarc...1.25 for a package of oscar Meyer hotdogs (if you buy 6.) Koger has a kind of predictable cycle for steak sales of the average kinds put in the styrofoam family packs...rib-eyes one week...chuck the next for sale...then t-bones for sale the next week and so on with the previous on sale meats going back up to 8 to 10 dollars a pound. Wait a few weeks for your favorite grilling meat to drop to a price you want to pay at Koger....it eventually cycles around. Now you won’t get an argument from me that over-all prices for everything has gone up in the aggregate over the past few years.
Yes and no...around here we see slow price build ups for things just before the Holidays you mention...then oh my goodness “big sales”/sarc...1.25 for a package of oscar Meyer hotdogs (if you buy 6.) Koger has a kind of predictable cycle for steak sales of the average kinds put in the styrofoam family packs...rib-eyes one week...chuck the next for sale...then t-bones for sale the next week and so on with the previous on sale meats going back up to 8 to 10 dollars a pound. Wait a few weeks for your favorite grilling meat to drop to a price you want to pay at Koger....it eventually cycles around. Now you won’t get an argument from me that over-all prices for everything has gone up in the aggregate over the past few years.
Chicken wings were poor man’s food until they went popular. So was pork belly and that is through the roof these days.
Wow...what a huge difference.
I understand that...the store’s loss, my gain. :-)
There are six or seven different grocery stores in my neighborhood...one of them will have Campbell’s BOGO on any given week...ergo, buck a can.
You need to be a little more clear on the point your making.
you’re
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